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re: Powell hints/suggest there will be no more rate cuts this year
Posted on 5/8/25 at 11:24 am to Triple Bogey
Posted on 5/8/25 at 11:24 am to Triple Bogey
quote:
They're really going to wait until something completely breaks I guess
You raise rates when the economy is good, you lower them when it's bad, you leave them be when it's moving in the direction you need it to move (even if that direction is to hold steady).
I think the jobs report is bullshite, but inflation has pivoted back to decreasing growth in a lot of categories. The Q1 2025 Household Debt and Credit Report releases Tuesday (05/13) and should give a better idea of what's going on with consumer debt. Delinquencies have declined recently, but defaults have continued to rise. If both start dropping that could be a good sign for the economy.
If defaults continue to rise, that could signal problems, especially if we see unemployment/jobless claims increase again (initial claims have slowly trended upward since 01/2024 while continued claims have done so since 2022).
Posted on 5/8/25 at 3:20 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
He wants to tank the DOW in hopes of causing massive 401k losses and hurt Trump.
Posted on 5/9/25 at 6:58 am to NC_Tigah
quote:Here is an example of the problem.
Now, perhaps he's simply parroting an FOMC majority position, as he has with the Fed involvement with climate change stuff.
Michael Barr is partisan and a democrat. He was both a Fed Governor and Vice Chairman for Supervision. In the latter role, he mirrored many of Elizabeth Warren's Banking positions. He resigned as VCS in Feb. But retained his FOMC position as governor.
Consensus is important to Powell. He's going to try to keep people like Barr on board if he can despite the fact that contentions like those in Barr's comments this morning are filled with nonsense.
quote:
Fed's Barr: tariffs to boost inflation, slow growth later this year
By Reuters
May 9, 2025
May 9 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies will likely lift inflation, lower growth, and raise unemployment later this year, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said, leaving policymakers with a potentially tricky decision on which problem to fight.
"The size and scope of the recent tariff increases are without modern precedent, we don’t know their final form, and it is too soon to know how they will affect the economy," Barr said on Friday in remarks prepared for delivery to the Central Bank of Iceland.
But the risks are clear, he suggested.
"In my view, higher tariffs could lead to disruption to global supply chains and create persistent upward pressure on inflation," he said
...
Barr's remarks largely echoed the steer from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, after the U.S. central bank held short-term borrowing costs steady and signaled a wait-and-see approach on rate-setting.
Monetary policy, Barr said, is "in a good position to adjust as conditions unfold," given the strength of the economy and labor market before Trump announced sweeping tariffs on April 2.
Barr in February resigned from his role as the Fed's vice chair for supervision to avert an open clash with Trump, who wants to reduce regulation in a broad range of industries. Appointed by President Joe Biden, Barr had pushed for stricter rules on banks during his tenure.
Trump has nominated Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, a frequent critic of Barr's approach, to take over as the central bank's regulatory chief.
In an unusual move, Barr stayed on as Fed governor, and Friday's speech marks his first comments on monetary policy in about a year.
LINK
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