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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 11/17/25 at 5:20 pm to 21JumpStreet
The cycle is either over or there is no longer a traditional cycle and everything needs to be reassessed.
Leaning towards the latter.
Leaning towards the latter.
Posted on 11/17/25 at 7:11 pm to 21JumpStreet
Definitely feels that way, brutal
Posted on 11/17/25 at 9:03 pm to TigerTatorTots
Need a rejection from 90k.
Cycle ending now would be so disappointing. BTC would have only gained like 20% over previous ATH after accounting for inflation.
Cycle ending now would be so disappointing. BTC would have only gained like 20% over previous ATH after accounting for inflation.
Posted on 11/18/25 at 4:47 am to Hateradedrink
IMO this is the same thing we’ve been seeing. People have been front running their perception of the cycle for the last couple years. This extended moment of “the cycle is over and it was a bust” was always inevitable. We’ve got everyone in the same crowded trade fading btc. They’ll front run the bear market rebound the same way.
Posted on 11/19/25 at 1:36 pm to beaverfever
Welp see yall again in 3 years?
Posted on 11/19/25 at 2:00 pm to TigerTatorTots
At least I managed to lock in some profits this cycle instead of completely round-tripping again 
Posted on 11/19/25 at 2:14 pm to TigerTatorTots
We never got a true altseason either. I guess too many people were expecting it.
Posted on 11/19/25 at 6:57 pm to LordSaintly
Shitcoins are dead for sure
Posted on 11/19/25 at 8:15 pm to LordSaintly
Still not convinced we’re going into a winter. Everything driving price right now is macro related.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 10:44 am to Hateradedrink
The headwinds are pretty gnarly right now. Everything is sold off as soon as it thinks about rallying. It’s extending to all assets.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 11:22 am to bayoubengals88
Where does someone consider going long right now?
I'm interested in anyone's take. TA, fundamentals, cycles, etc.
I'm probably going long more physical with proceeds from protective puts and averaging up, just not sure when. Also, obviously very difficult to average up.
I'm interested in anyone's take. TA, fundamentals, cycles, etc.
I'm probably going long more physical with proceeds from protective puts and averaging up, just not sure when. Also, obviously very difficult to average up.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 11:48 am to Iowa Golfer
83k is probably next stop, then 70k after that if it keeps dropping. I highly doubt we sustain below either of those levels very long.
I wonder if we’re all thinking about this wrong. Maybe “the cycle” is over but we’re speed running the typical cycles.
Alt coins are so low, they aren’t terribly far off from their previous cycle lows.
Regardless, the way we think about crypto has to be completely re-assessed. It’s pretty much locked in that nothing this cycle is the same.
I wonder if we’re all thinking about this wrong. Maybe “the cycle” is over but we’re speed running the typical cycles.
Alt coins are so low, they aren’t terribly far off from their previous cycle lows.
Regardless, the way we think about crypto has to be completely re-assessed. It’s pretty much locked in that nothing this cycle is the same.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 8:44 pm to Hateradedrink
I’m going to stack like a psychopath as soon as we settle in a trading range.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 9:12 pm to beaverfever
A TA trader was calling 2700 as the ETH floor this dip back when ETH was around 3100-3200. We’re coming up on that. If you think ETH was bringing everything else down via arbitrage, we may be nearing a short term floor.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 9:23 pm to Hateradedrink
Just saw June 2028 IBIT options started trading today. Oh wow.
Posted on 11/20/25 at 9:25 pm to beaverfever
How are the LEAPs priced?
Posted on 11/20/25 at 9:31 pm to Iowa Golfer
$70 strikes closed at $13.27. $80s at $11.55, $90s at $9.95, $100s at $8.51. I’ve obviously dabbled in options but I’m no expert and I’m curious what anyone might think about what strikes might be optimal for building a position.
Posted on 11/21/25 at 6:01 am to beaverfever
Ya'll should watch this interview with Tom Lee yesterday on CNBC. I've heard a couple people say that there was a major market maker that blew up on October 10th. Tom Lee is the first person I've heard elaborate on what that means.
Essentially, a market maker was forced to take massive directional exposure during the flash crash and they're now bleeding out btc into the market to meet their de-risking requirements. The really sick part is that once the market recognizes that someone is bleeding coins (and obviously the major players all know), they stop buying in the interim and just wait for a signal that it's time to buy.
That's scary af but could be indicative of how violent the V shape could be once the other major players think the damage is done and then pile back in. All of those coins will have moved from traders' hands to firm hands and you'll have a sea of buyers reengaged.
Essentially, a market maker was forced to take massive directional exposure during the flash crash and they're now bleeding out btc into the market to meet their de-risking requirements. The really sick part is that once the market recognizes that someone is bleeding coins (and obviously the major players all know), they stop buying in the interim and just wait for a signal that it's time to buy.
That's scary af but could be indicative of how violent the V shape could be once the other major players think the damage is done and then pile back in. All of those coins will have moved from traders' hands to firm hands and you'll have a sea of buyers reengaged.
Posted on 11/21/25 at 6:24 am to beaverfever
This morning has been brutal. Ive been working the drive-thru. There's an endless line of cars, its cold, and its raining.
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