re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

My goodness , everything is tanking today. Should I buy, or wait to see if everything keeps going down? I have like 8 different kinds of cryptos. Which one is worth buying up while they’re down?

We are getting into the thick of big tech earnings, maybe we get some announcements of adding BTC to balance sheets on conference calls with some of these regulatory hurdles being cleared.

The Chinese New Year started yesterday and goes through February 12th. Historically, they love to spend money and buy Bitcoin during this period, so retail buying pressure for Bitcoin should be on the rise. Based on historical data, Bitcoin should gain about 10% to 20% or so by 10 days after their New Year ends, so by February 22nd.

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I don't know who needs to hear this, but there is no altseason.

The world has woken up and finally understands that there is only Bitcoin, not one of the 1,000,000 shite coins that is invented every day.

LINK

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No dude. BTC ETF enjoyoors and corporations with BTC treasuries will rotate into fartcoin, hex, and xrp as soon as altseason arrives, same as it ever was. Be patient.

It feels like everyone is asleep at the wheel about what’s happening. The next 5 years are going to be wild.

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It feels like everyone is asleep at the wheel about what’s happening. The next 5 years are going to be wild.

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Well said. Most everyone does seem to be asleep at the wheel. If you go to the bottom of the previous page and scroll up to the 3rd post of the bottom, that is my post describing some of the many possibilities of sending Bitcoin past the moon. This is one of those once in a lifetime chances for people not already loaded up on Bitcoin and Bitcoin related investments to jump on board and enjoy a new asset class blast off that will create generational wealth.

There will be an alt season. It won’t be influenced as heavily by ETH as in years past.

That graph in that link showed when BTC had a strong correlation to ETH and it liked to run around a 0.05-0.1 ratio with BTC at all times.

That’s not happening now. Thats why you’re seeing BTC pull away from “crypto markets” ….because ETH was inflating up the non-btc crypto market cap. That’s not happening. Every other alt is still acting normally for this stage of the cycle except ETH.

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Appreciate your response Art. Good job of pointing out some of the reasons we had extreme pullbacks in the past, and how some of those catalysts are already gone, such that massive pullbacks are likely a thing of the past except for major global disasters.

I've been in Bitcoin since 2016. The pullbacks of 10% to 20% in 2024 were nothing compared to the previous cycles. The ever increasing institutional buyers will mute otherwise big pullbacks from the past.

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Yup, in past cycles bitcoiners made up a small % of the market cap at tops. Tourists, degens and casino leverage were wiped out as soon as whales began building a cash position to ride out the next bear. As the price climbs deep into 6 digits whales will need to offload much smaller amounts to fund their lifestyle but what is still largely misunderstood is the impact of the lending products that are coming. Why would a whale ever convert to fiat when they can keep just get a loan against it from the likes of Cantor Fitzgerald?

Non rehypothecated loans are already available from Ledn and the like. Rates are high compared to fiat world but still way below btc CAGR. The suspicion against lending products, well deserved in the wake of mass shitcoin casino explosions, will fade over time imo. This removes a lot of sell pressure from the market forever.

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Until the Bitcoiners get their shite together and get consensus on how to upgrade their system to allow better smart contracts, oracles, and L2s, there will always be a need for other decentralized systems. Bitcoin cannot and will not do everything.

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If the goal of the world computer/defi/web 3 (+ 10 other marketing narratives over the years) setup was to build an alternative system and have the entire tradfi system switch over to it, it has failed, miserably. That's obviously not happening.

What is happening is btc is being integrated into the existing system where it will slowly consume it from the inside out. Saylor has the template pretty much built out. In addition to much of the corporate world I think we'll see sovereigns put btc on the yield curve in the next year to stabilize failing debt markets.

What crypto advocates continually misunderstand is that "decentralized systems" can not be built on a centralized base layer run by a small foundation. Congratulations, you literally just recreated the Federal Reserve system and sprinkled a dash of cryptography in. What the existing system needs, more than anything, is a decentralized base layer with sound monetary policy.

It's not going to be a digital change. It's going to happen organically, in stages over many years. We're just beginning to see how that process will unfold. It's starts with the bond market realizing that btc is the ultimate collateral asset. It starts with bond investors realizing that btc is the ultimate store of value. All the whiz bang features of current centralized crypto will be added much later, in a second or third layer, if, and only if there is demand for it. But right now and for the foreseeable future, there is no greater demand than for sound money and pristine collateral.