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re: Official CryptoTalk Thread

Posted on 8/4/24 at 8:39 pm to
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4045 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 8:39 pm to
Macro situation is UGLY.

The fed fricked up.
Posted by HottyToddy7
Member since Sep 2010
15251 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 8:45 pm to
The Fed’s only responsibility is to protect big American banks. Once you realize that, everything becomes clear. They couldn’t give 2 shits about the average American.
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4045 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 8:52 pm to
This stuff is strangely mimicking 2020.

Market looking good, crypto strengthening, then gets nuked from covid.

Now it’s getting nuked from Iran/israel and recession.


Hopefully this is the final big dip before the rip. That said, I would not be buying shite right now
Posted by TigerTatorTots
The Safeshore
Member since Jul 2009
82089 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 9:01 pm to
Fire up the printers to save everything - Japan will be first. Will be watching their next move closely. They will have to intervene at some point
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10607 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 9:03 pm to
Hopefully things crash and I can buy, buy buy!

I love the smell of naplam.
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4045 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 9:16 pm to
On the plus side, I can go back to ignoring the market except for bi-weekly check-ins for a few months
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10607 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 9:24 pm to
It’s still hard for me to buy at this level. I’m in some BTC under $1K. But I’ll have proceeds (portfolio insurance claims settlement) from VIX calls. There used to be BTC VIX, kinda sorta, but in this case VIX will have to suffice. The equity and crypto markets have essentially tracked each other. Protective puts just got eat to expensive on crypto.

I’ve always done what I’ve always done. It’s worked out well.

Back to point, I believe BTC is on early stages, so I need to get over the psychology of averaging up.

There are a couple of things I’ve done in equities the last 9 months that are also going to work out nicely. I just don’t post about it a lot because it offends some of the so called experts on here. Not this thread, but this board.


Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4045 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 9:39 pm to
Low-key expecting to wake up to sub 2k eth and sub 50k btc tomorrow which would have big implications for miner capitulation as I was talking about earlier.

All previous TA/logic is basically gone due to the macro environment.

How exciting.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10607 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 9:56 pm to
I’m not what to do except buy at some point:
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10607 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 9:57 pm to
ETA, I wish I knew how to get into a mining pool, especially if prices keep going down. But I probably should have done that a long, long time ago.
Posted by BottomlandBrew
Member since Aug 2010
29373 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 10:05 pm to
Damn, I check out for a couple of days and come back to a bloodbath What's funny is that it no longer registers an emotion from me other than laughter. I used to feel these crashes, but after a while it just becomes a thing that happens and a thing you accept.

Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4045 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 10:10 pm to
I deployed all of my capital last year. I’m purely a spectator.
Posted by 98eagle
Member since Sep 2020
3147 posts
Posted on 8/4/24 at 10:45 pm to
This pullback feels like the one 30 days ago, just a lot steeper. Last month in this situation, the recovery was fairly quick.
This post was edited on 8/5/24 at 7:20 am
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4045 posts
Posted on 8/5/24 at 7:26 am to
ETA: nevermind I looked at this wrong. The average cost is actually 78k which is up from yesterday.

LINK

Miners have to sell at a 30k loss or have liquidity to keep rigs running. Cant see many miners deciding to sell at that big of a loss.
This post was edited on 8/5/24 at 7:32 am
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10607 posts
Posted on 8/5/24 at 8:08 am to
Curious on other's thoughts about price level to buy at?
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38431 posts
Posted on 8/5/24 at 8:12 am to
I want to see what the holders of the ETFs are doing before I even think about it.

If they start dumping at the opening bell it is going to get ugly.

Me personally, I will be backing up the truck at anything under $40,000 but will start some small purchases around these prices.
Posted by Hateradedrink
Member since May 2023
4045 posts
Posted on 8/5/24 at 8:19 am to
I would use alts as a guide here. Look at the market: BTC is down 20%ish on the week but alts are down 30-40% on the week. You know how alts go up when btc goes up? The reverse can also be true. I think the alt-crash is making the btc sell-off worse than it really is.

Once alts stabilize, BTC may stabilize.

Alts usually bottom out at 90-95% drawdown from ATH. Cant see many alts going below what they were at the bottom in 2022 and 2023.

Posted by BottomlandBrew
Member since Aug 2010
29373 posts
Posted on 8/5/24 at 8:39 am to
Lots of buying in the first 10 minutes of market opening. I'm still waiting for a turbo-nuke after a quick pump, but maybe that's just battle fatigue coming out in me.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10607 posts
Posted on 8/5/24 at 8:45 am to
I bought a bit. I'm now going to wait.
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