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1
Posted on 3/25/24 at 8:00 am to RATeamWannabe
Only thing to watch this week is GBTC. If the bleeding slows down, we are going UP.
If they keep dumping, well.....
I still think we are at ATH the day of the halfening which is about 3 weeks away.
If they keep dumping, well.....
I still think we are at ATH the day of the halfening which is about 3 weeks away.
Posted on 3/25/24 at 9:15 am to I Love Bama
I prefer them to keep dumping everything asap so the fireworks can commence after the halfening.
On another note, anyone taking notice of Base Eth L2? Their presence seems to be expanding and I expect will eventually aim for Solana’s volume. I bought a few memes there for kicks.
On another note, anyone taking notice of Base Eth L2? Their presence seems to be expanding and I expect will eventually aim for Solana’s volume. I bought a few memes there for kicks.
Posted on 3/25/24 at 9:34 am to Odinson
Nice God Candle this morning but it will be short lived.
GBTC just send 4,400 Bitcoin to Coinbase to sell.
GBTC just send 4,400 Bitcoin to Coinbase to sell.
Posted on 3/25/24 at 9:42 am to eng08
I see today that I am having trouble following my own plan (due to greed).
I had sold a stack of FBTC and used those funds to buy BTFX when Bitcoin was roughly $63,500. My plan was to reverse that trade when Bitcoin was at $67K. Since Bitcoin blew past $67K before I had a chance to do this, now I am having a hard time selling with Bitcoin still appearing to want to rise and perhaps blow past any $70K resistance. I'm looking at 17% gains in BTFX currently for the day.
I need to go ahead and sell it soon and reverse the trade if it starts reversing enough.
I had sold a stack of FBTC and used those funds to buy BTFX when Bitcoin was roughly $63,500. My plan was to reverse that trade when Bitcoin was at $67K. Since Bitcoin blew past $67K before I had a chance to do this, now I am having a hard time selling with Bitcoin still appearing to want to rise and perhaps blow past any $70K resistance. I'm looking at 17% gains in BTFX currently for the day.
I need to go ahead and sell it soon and reverse the trade if it starts reversing enough.
Posted on 3/25/24 at 9:45 am to 98eagle
quote:
I'm looking at 17% gains in BTFX currently for the day.
Posted on 3/25/24 at 10:08 am to 98eagle
Nice.
Like I said earlier I’d try the trade and saw that 17% this morning and sold and rotated back into fbtc.
It was a 6% gain on the trade over the week and just added to my fbtc.
Like I said earlier I’d try the trade and saw that 17% this morning and sold and rotated back into fbtc.
It was a 6% gain on the trade over the week and just added to my fbtc.
Posted on 3/25/24 at 10:42 am to eng08
Awesome! It's really easy to do. I am always just waiting on the next dip, pullback or crash and subsequent recovery to replicate this again. Rinse, wash, repeat. Even though there is no way to determine tops and bottoms, I don't have to. I just determine my buy/sell levels and use those as triggers. It's an easy to test strategy with small amounts. As always, even with a strategy such as this, there are no guarantees with what Bitcoin will ultimately do, so anyone including myself can lose money. However, I believe Bitcoin is going up significantly through mid 2025 with a lot of volatility, so I am willing to take that risk.
This post was edited on 3/25/24 at 10:47 am
Posted on 3/25/24 at 1:22 pm to 98eagle
quote:
However, I believe Bitcoin is going up significantly through mid 2025 with a lot of volatility, so I am willing to take that risk.
I agree with your sentiment but not your timeline. Go look at the total crypto market cap weekly chart. Last Halving there was a Volume spike of about 130 days after the halving that was FOMO volume. We are starting that period. Once that volume left it never came back. I think we probably have until the start of football season for the volume spike. If you are playing BTC it may ride longer due to the supply crunch. If you are playing alts, we are in the start of a 5-7 month alt season, then its gone.
Posted on 3/25/24 at 1:58 pm to HottyToddy7
I can’t decide if I agree with this take yet or not.
The question is: is this volume spike “early”, or “in addition to”?
I’m leaning towards the latter.
The question is: is this volume spike “early”, or “in addition to”?
I’m leaning towards the latter.
Posted on 3/25/24 at 3:22 pm to HottyToddy7
quote:
I agree with your sentiment but not your timeline
Good point with your observations. I respect your opinion. But I still have a different take. Since there have been two very significant macro events impacting the last and current halvings I think you have to take those into account.
The last halving was different from the first two in that it's run (both timeline and amplitude of its run) were largely impacted and muted by COVID in a negative way.
This upcoming halving is much more impacted in my opinion by the SEC approval of the Spot ETFs and how Bitcoin adoption is now spreading worldwide. Bitcoin is now a brand new asset class available to an order of magnitude more people around the world. Institutional investment even though it has already been hugely impacting, is literally just getting started. Bitcoin is going to surpass Gold in market cap and actually bleed off market cap from all other asset classes.
I see this upcoming halving having an impact closer to the first two with face melting parabolic gains lasting 12 to 18 months after the halving.
That's what I think. You might be right and we will see. For all of us pro Bitcoin folks, I hope on our behalf that I am right. I am certainly all in and arbitrage trading dips and pullbacks for at least 12 months after the halving and likely through mid 2025 as I currently believe is the time to take some profits.
This post was edited on 3/25/24 at 3:46 pm
Posted on 3/25/24 at 4:30 pm to 98eagle
Anyone else bought AERO? I'm in at .76. Up about 92% right now.
This post was edited on 3/25/24 at 4:33 pm
Posted on 3/25/24 at 4:47 pm to 98eagle
last cycle i was sure it was going to last until December and ended up taking a major haircut holding too long. Gonna try not to let that happen again
Posted on 3/25/24 at 4:53 pm to 98eagle
quote:
muted by COVID in a negative way.
Probably the opposite happened, retail jumped in to a great degree with stimulus checks.
Posted on 3/25/24 at 5:06 pm to LEASTBAY
quote:
Anyone else bought AERO? I'm in at .76. Up about 92% right now.
I’m up about 2x. That was my bet on Base (since there’s no base token) getting more adoption that I mentioned earlier today.
Posted on 3/25/24 at 5:24 pm to The Baker
quote:
Probably the opposite happened, retail jumped in to a great degree with stimulus checks.
You sure about that? Maybe you are right. I do agree that the stimulus checks added a lot of liquidity and Bitcoin absolutely trades higher on liquidity. But I still think COVID overall muted the effect of the last halving to some extent. A lot of people lost their jobs, many more part time jobs were created, many businesses went out of business and inflation took off.
The last halving top % gain was much less percentage wise than the first two halving tops.
Here are the rough percentage gains after the 3 previous halvings:
1) 50,000% gain one year after the 2012 halving.
2) 8,500% gain nearly one and a half years after the 2016 halving.
3) 1,000% gain one and a half years after the 2020 halving.
I think we will know more about the impact of COVID and the Spot ETFs on the last halving and the upcoming halving. If the downward trend in the top gain after the 2024 halving continues to something like a paltry 2X, then COVID and the Spot ETFs had little impact on the impact of this next halving. If on the other hand after the halving, Bitcoin's ultimate gain this cycle smashes the 2020 (or perhaps even the 2016) cycle gains, then potentially both COVID and the Spot ETFs made a big difference in their own right. If we somehow top the 2016 gains there are going to be many new multi millionaires and billionaires.
This post was edited on 3/25/24 at 7:07 pm
Posted on 3/25/24 at 5:40 pm to 98eagle
Guys, check out your 401k mutual fund listings. I recently realized I can buy Bitcoin futures in my 401k. BTCFX
Posted on 3/25/24 at 6:08 pm to tenderfoot tigah
quote:
Bitcoin futures in my 401k. BTCFX
Thanks for sharing. It looks like it probably is a good investment but I think the two 2X Leveraged Bitcoin Derivatives (BITX and BTFX) are likely a better investment. I would need to understand BTCFX more and how it works.
Just checking BTCFX's historical returns, BITX's 1 month and 6 month returns are about triple that of BTCFX. BTFX is only a couple of months old since inception but it is tracking closely with BITX.
Posted on 3/25/24 at 6:12 pm to 98eagle
Unfortunately I can only buy mutual funds in my 401k.
Posted on 3/25/24 at 6:23 pm to tenderfoot tigah
quote:
Unfortunately I can only buy mutual funds in my 401k.
Sorry to hear that about your 401K choices. 401Ks are still great and especially with the company match. It's hard to beat that. But still at least in your 401K you can invest in BTCFX. Any positively correlated Bitcoin investment is a good thing to be invested in.
If you decide to start funding your own traditional and/or Roth IRA(s), you can invest in some really good Bitcoin related investments like some of the Spot Bitcoin ETFs, BITO, BITX and BTFX.
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