- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Coaching Changes
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Official CryptoTalk Thread
Posted on 7/22/21 at 11:41 pm to rocket31
Posted on 7/22/21 at 11:41 pm to rocket31
Bitcoin serves its purpose for the world stage. There’s just better things out there like Hex. I’m even more excited about the fork of eth called pulse chain.
This post was edited on 7/22/21 at 11:42 pm
3
Posted on 7/23/21 at 6:52 am to trilltiger
This is highly unlikely 
Posted on 7/23/21 at 7:20 am to rocket31
Gotta talk your book … especially if you’re in shitcoins 
Posted on 7/23/21 at 9:43 am to trilltiger
copy. well I do hope it works out for ya hex baws
Posted on 7/23/21 at 9:52 am to TigerDeBaiter
quote:
Agreed. And good to see doge continue to dump while others are gaining.
I know more than zero people who sold near the peaks, bought back in even more aggressively, and have lost even more than they made in the initial run up. Happens all the time in pump and dump schemes.
Posted on 7/23/21 at 10:51 am to slackster
So I am toying around with some different tools at LINK Really interesting data here if you're bored. Some observations:
1. This cycle, if 60k was indeed the top, would have an entirely different price graph than every cycle to this point.
2. Conversely, in both 2013 and 2017, BTC price had already begun it's upswing towards cycle ATH at this point in "days post-halvening"
3. "BTC Unspent" is probably the most interesting graph. "BTC Unspent" is when btc went to a wallet and no where else; it was held.
LINK
From 2012-2013 (ATH), Unspent BTC went from 250k to 580k (ratio 0.43).
From 2016-2017, it went from 500k to 1.4m (ratio 0.36).
From 2020-2021, it went from 3 million to 6.6 million (ratio 0.46).
4.2 million of those 6.6 million have been dormant longer than 5 years. 2.2 million have been dormant longer than 10 years.
What is different about this cycle is that 2019 was the only year unspent coins decreased- 2013 was preceded by 3 years of decreased holding. 2017 was preceded by 2 years of decreased holding. 2021 was only preceded by 1 year of decreased holding.
What does this mean? Well, if we do a ratio from the "floor" of held bitcoins from previous cycle, instead of just the year prior, we see a ratio of 0.16 for 2017 (bigger increase of holders) and 0.24 for 2021 (smaller increase of holders).
tl;dr: There are/was a lot of unspent bitcoin purchased during the 2018-2019 crash/winter that normally would have been sold prior to the run to ATH. A lot of people got caught holding bags. I'm willing to bet that is responsible for a sizable portion of downward pressure we've experienced to this point- there was a lot of bitcoin priced in at 6k-12k in this cycle that should not have existed, and is stunting this cycle. Until that's exhausted, downward/flat pressure will continue.
If any autists here want to look at addresses that bought btc specifically during 2018-2019 and see how much btc those wallets are holding, you might get some timing insight.
1. This cycle, if 60k was indeed the top, would have an entirely different price graph than every cycle to this point.
2. Conversely, in both 2013 and 2017, BTC price had already begun it's upswing towards cycle ATH at this point in "days post-halvening"
3. "BTC Unspent" is probably the most interesting graph. "BTC Unspent" is when btc went to a wallet and no where else; it was held.
LINK
From 2012-2013 (ATH), Unspent BTC went from 250k to 580k (ratio 0.43).
From 2016-2017, it went from 500k to 1.4m (ratio 0.36).
From 2020-2021, it went from 3 million to 6.6 million (ratio 0.46).
4.2 million of those 6.6 million have been dormant longer than 5 years. 2.2 million have been dormant longer than 10 years.
What is different about this cycle is that 2019 was the only year unspent coins decreased- 2013 was preceded by 3 years of decreased holding. 2017 was preceded by 2 years of decreased holding. 2021 was only preceded by 1 year of decreased holding.
What does this mean? Well, if we do a ratio from the "floor" of held bitcoins from previous cycle, instead of just the year prior, we see a ratio of 0.16 for 2017 (bigger increase of holders) and 0.24 for 2021 (smaller increase of holders).
tl;dr: There are/was a lot of unspent bitcoin purchased during the 2018-2019 crash/winter that normally would have been sold prior to the run to ATH. A lot of people got caught holding bags. I'm willing to bet that is responsible for a sizable portion of downward pressure we've experienced to this point- there was a lot of bitcoin priced in at 6k-12k in this cycle that should not have existed, and is stunting this cycle. Until that's exhausted, downward/flat pressure will continue.
If any autists here want to look at addresses that bought btc specifically during 2018-2019 and see how much btc those wallets are holding, you might get some timing insight.
This post was edited on 7/23/21 at 11:26 am
Posted on 7/23/21 at 11:07 am to Tiguar
LINK
as you can see from here, 31k~ is the current 350day moving average for BTC. Looking at this chart, BTC doesn't fall below its 350d moving average very often, but when it does fall below it for the first time after a new ATH, it stays below it for approximately a year. So, its pretty reasonable to believe 30-32k is infact our line in the sand and "local floor". You buy every time it touches the 350d moving average unless you believe we have already hit this cycles ATH.
as you can see from here, 31k~ is the current 350day moving average for BTC. Looking at this chart, BTC doesn't fall below its 350d moving average very often, but when it does fall below it for the first time after a new ATH, it stays below it for approximately a year. So, its pretty reasonable to believe 30-32k is infact our line in the sand and "local floor". You buy every time it touches the 350d moving average unless you believe we have already hit this cycles ATH.
This post was edited on 7/23/21 at 11:25 am
Posted on 7/23/21 at 11:09 am to Tiguar
quote:
So, its pretty reasonable to believe 30-32k is infact our line in the sand and "local floor". You buy every time it touches the 350d moving average unless you believe we have hit this cycles ATH.
Posted on 7/23/21 at 11:13 am to rocket31
LINK
According to this graph, we are in a "bearish" band.
In 2013 with the double-run, BTC never dropped out of the "bullish" band despite the dip.
2021, we dipped into the "bearish" band on 5/19.
BTC has never jumped out of the "bearish" band until next halvening once sustaining for more than a few weeks.
However, it has also never sustained below "oversold" for any meaningful period of time, and "oversold" is currently at 25k.
According to this graph, we are in a "bearish" band.
In 2013 with the double-run, BTC never dropped out of the "bullish" band despite the dip.
2021, we dipped into the "bearish" band on 5/19.
BTC has never jumped out of the "bearish" band until next halvening once sustaining for more than a few weeks.
However, it has also never sustained below "oversold" for any meaningful period of time, and "oversold" is currently at 25k.
This post was edited on 7/23/21 at 11:17 am
Posted on 7/23/21 at 11:15 am to Tiguar
404 page not found
Posted on 7/23/21 at 11:17 am to rocket31
fixed
Posted on 7/23/21 at 11:20 am to rocket31
Looking at these and that bump around halvening in 2019-2020, I am actually willing to bet this is the accumulation period and a meaningful bullrun may occur around next halvening where we reach what we thought we were supposed to be getting now.
People are predicting a prolonged winter and acting accordingly, but once a pattern becomes predictable, it becomes unreliable.
People are predicting a prolonged winter and acting accordingly, but once a pattern becomes predictable, it becomes unreliable.
Posted on 7/23/21 at 11:21 am to trilltiger
quote:
Bitcoin serves its purpose for the world stage. There’s just better things out there like Hex. I’m even more excited about the fork of eth called pulse chain.
Please educate me. There are lots of better projects, but convincing the world stage when there isn't even widespread adoption of BTC is the problem. How is a coin with a 574 Billion supply and a 3.69% increase per year is somehow better than BTC for BTC's main purpose?
Posted on 7/23/21 at 11:27 am to Tiguar
quote:
I am actually willing to bet this is the accumulation period and a meaningful bullrun may occur around next halvening where we reach what we thought we were supposed to be getting now.
seems reasonable.
obviously, this bull run, if its over, was disappointing but it does provide the believers more time for accumulation
Posted on 7/23/21 at 2:35 pm to trilltiger
quote:You sound smart. What is your Twitter?
Bitcoin serves its purpose for the world stage. There’s just better things out there like Hex. I’m even more excited about the fork of eth called pulse chain.
Posted on 7/23/21 at 2:47 pm to Tiguar
quote:This is an interesting point because I was working on some stuff and investigated this pretty heavily. At the time FinCEN was producing different guidance than Treasury, which was different than the IRS. In reality I don't know how much of this argument has been resolved. Of course personally you're going to go by what the IRS says.
They’re saying the IRS cannot claim crypto is both property and income, and staking/mining gains can’t be taxed at time of acquisition. A baker doesn’t pay tax for making a cake.
Posted on 7/23/21 at 5:42 pm to alpinetiger
we’ve reclaimed 33k for a brief moment
Posted on 7/23/21 at 5:57 pm to Ross
Nice big bars. I bought a good chunk today around around $32,500
Posted on 7/23/21 at 6:13 pm to TigeRoots
Mining profitability is up right now too
Posted on 7/23/21 at 6:49 pm to Ross
It’ll run to 35-36 again unless it’s forming a new low.
Running beyond that would be a sign of reversal
Running beyond that would be a sign of reversal
This post was edited on 7/23/21 at 6:50 pm
Page 1636 of 2241
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News