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re: Official CryptoTalk Thread
Posted on 5/17/21 at 12:42 pm to TigerTatorTots
Posted on 5/17/21 at 12:42 pm to TigerTatorTots
I think the big difference is the flat top before the dip on this one.
That changed the moving average sufficiently to strongly suggest at least a short term bear environment for BTC. Time will tell if it says flat long enough for the 3 day moving average graph to suggest a longer bear market.
That changed the moving average sufficiently to strongly suggest at least a short term bear environment for BTC. Time will tell if it says flat long enough for the 3 day moving average graph to suggest a longer bear market.
This post was edited on 5/17/21 at 12:46 pm
1
Posted on 5/17/21 at 12:52 pm to Tiguar
Could be more like 2013 where you had a mini bull run (like we just had) followed by mini bear market that led right into the massive bull run
Posted on 5/17/21 at 12:58 pm to TigerTatorTots
It’s possible.
There is a lot of buy pressure around 35k, but I don’t know if it’ll be enough to trigger a run.
The depth chart on binance.us has 20k only like 2% off from 55k.
There is a lot of buy pressure around 35k, but I don’t know if it’ll be enough to trigger a run.
The depth chart on binance.us has 20k only like 2% off from 55k.
Posted on 5/17/21 at 1:08 pm to Tiguar
it's getting to pretty attractive buy levels for some institution or big individual to announce a buy
even if it's just a short term play, it seems like one big announcement could get you a $5k candle
even if it's just a short term play, it seems like one big announcement could get you a $5k candle
Posted on 5/17/21 at 1:13 pm to rocket31
You’ll probably see some stuff like this to stop the bleeding occasionally if any big mover has btc left to sell.
Posted on 5/17/21 at 1:27 pm to Tiguar
Sellers look exhausted but buyers look scared
My 42 level has continued to hold, my thesis is still the same
My 42 level has continued to hold, my thesis is still the same
Posted on 5/17/21 at 1:30 pm to rocket31
quote:
even if it's just a short term play, it seems like one big announcement could get you a $5k candle
Well Walmart reports tomorrow, those rumors feel like they were a lifetime ago but haven’t been proven true or false yet
Posted on 5/17/21 at 1:43 pm to maclauer
I think we will see range trading between 42-45 next while until someone blinks or tweets.
This post was edited on 5/17/21 at 1:44 pm
Posted on 5/17/21 at 2:53 pm to rocket31
quote:
it's getting to pretty attractive buy levels for some institution or big individual to announce a buy
I don't see institutions jumping in now until the energy consumption narrative is sorted out. BTC maxis don't like it, but this reckoning has been in the making for years and it is better for the overall market, imo, to figure it out sooner rather than later.
Posted on 5/17/21 at 3:13 pm to Douglas Quaid
Wanting to purchase .25 BTC. Knowing once I do, it drops under 40k.
Posted on 5/17/21 at 3:18 pm to Tuscaloosa
quote:
Welp, I just dumped several thousand into crypto. I hope you guys saved me a seat on the roller coaster.
I’m only down 20% in a week. It’s fine. This is fine.
Posted on 5/17/21 at 3:20 pm to Tuscaloosa
Dave Portnoy just announced he invested 40K into Safemoon, can't hurt my investment
Posted on 5/17/21 at 3:32 pm to maclauer
quote:
David P. Ellis
@DavidPBitcoin
·
15h
Incredibly, even if I had sold at the absolute peak, the current price STILL isn’t low enough to offset the short term capital gains tax burden I would have incurred if I wanted to rebuy more coins post sale. What does that say about the US tax code?
This is a wild point
Posted on 5/17/21 at 3:35 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
This is a wild point
No it’s not. It’s an invalid point unless your cost basis was $0
Posted on 5/17/21 at 3:42 pm to maclauer
If anyone comes to the tournament next week I'm going to be setting up a Crypto Moon-Room somewhere on site if you wanted to find it
ETA: seriously though, things are coming along nicely:
ETA: seriously though, things are coming along nicely:
This post was edited on 5/17/21 at 3:47 pm
Posted on 5/17/21 at 4:29 pm to maclauer
quote:Not really. Less than a year ago bitcoin was just under $10,000.
No it’s not. It’s an invalid point unless your cost basis was $0
Selling at $68,000 peak and paying 37% short term taxes on a $10,000 cost basis gives you a $46,000 break even (which it was at the time the guy posted that tweet).
Posted on 5/17/21 at 4:49 pm to TigerTatorTots
here is the million dollar question I'm mulling over
when we do finally crash and the market goes flat, what do you all-in?
Do you all-in btc for an almost guaranteed 10x (but not much more) or something like BNB which could 30x + but is riskier
Or do you all-in btc and then do a crypto loan to roll into whatever, but then you lose out on possible gains and this is pretty risky too because of the nature of the transaction.
when we do finally crash and the market goes flat, what do you all-in?
Do you all-in btc for an almost guaranteed 10x (but not much more) or something like BNB which could 30x + but is riskier
Or do you all-in btc and then do a crypto loan to roll into whatever, but then you lose out on possible gains and this is pretty risky too because of the nature of the transaction.
Posted on 5/17/21 at 5:09 pm to TigerTatorTots
So you took the most aggressive assumptions that someone bought the exact floor (BTC was 9.7 a year ago today), sold a fabricated top (peak was 64s not 68), and is in the highest tax bracket (37% is MFJ AGI 630K+) and still didn’t quite get to breakeven. And that ignores that the unrealized gain in the HODL scenario would still need to be taxed eventually unless you never sold and the basis stepped up upon death.
I agree with the general point that if you’re just a hodler that making emotional and antsy decisions triggering taxable events is a bad idea, mostly because you won’t be sniping perfect bottoms and tops as you constructed in your scenario.
But, as a CPA, I had to throw a flag here because that circumstance described is so narrow and misleading. Folks in here are in the 22-24% brackets and weren’t sitting on 40+ unrealized in short term gains per coin.
I agree with the general point that if you’re just a hodler that making emotional and antsy decisions triggering taxable events is a bad idea, mostly because you won’t be sniping perfect bottoms and tops as you constructed in your scenario.
But, as a CPA, I had to throw a flag here because that circumstance described is so narrow and misleading. Folks in here are in the 22-24% brackets and weren’t sitting on 40+ unrealized in short term gains per coin.
Posted on 5/17/21 at 5:20 pm to TigerTatorTots
that's why you only trade the coins you've hodl'd for a year ;)
Posted on 5/17/21 at 5:20 pm to Tiguar
quote:Yeah. For me at least. I bought (then lost) a couple dozen or so BTC back in the early days. If I still had those, I’d be cashed out and retired. Then, more recently, I bought $200 worth of btc only to find it worth $900 when I checked back a couple of years later. Now, I’m planning to put about 10k into btc then forget about it for a while. The lower this current dip goes, the more btc I’ll ride with for the next peak—which has got to hit $100K eventually.
do you all-in btc
Unrelated to crypto: My main investments are blue chips, $X and $T for the most part. $T spiked this morning on news of a merger with Discovery. Don’t know why, but prices then fell off a cliff (relatively) as the day went on. Now looking like it may drop below $30–lowest it has been for a while (except for the $27 Covid days last year). Haven’t had a chance to see if there’s a logical explanation, but it lost 10% or so from mid morning to now.
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