Oct. economic data may never be released

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Key economic reports for October may not be released at all because of the government shutdown, a senior White House official said Wednesday.

With the spending impasse appearing to be near an end, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that part of the fallout could be lasting damage to the government’s data collection ability.

“The Democrats may have permanently damaged the Federal Statistical system with October CPI and jobs reports likely never being released,” Leavitt said. “All of that economic data released will be permanently impaired, leaving our policymakers at the Fed, flying blind at a critical period.”

Release of important economic data has been at the forefront of Wall Street concerns as the shutdown dragged on for more than six weeks, the longest in history.

Among the most important releases are the monthly nonfarm payrolls count and the consumer price index, both of which come from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. Other data impacted includes retail sales, import and export data as well as consumer spending and income.

Most Wall Street economists have been expecting all of the data to be released, albeit delayed. However, Leavitt’s comments cast doubt on whether that will happen.

“The Democrat shutdown made it extraordinarily difficult for economic economists investors and policy makers at the Federal Reserve to receive critical government data,” Leavitt said.

Leavitt added that the shutdown could lower fourth-quarter economic growth by up to 2 percentage points. Earlier in the afternoon, Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, said the impasse might shave up to 1.5 percentage points from current-quarter GDP.

“For sure, it’s going to have an impact on this quarter,” Hassett said during an appearance at the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

However, most economists expect the impact to be minimal.

Goldman Sachs, in fact, raised its estimates for GDP heading into the end of the year. The firm boosted its Q3 outlook slightly to 3.7% and raised its full-year outlook to 1.3%, a change of 0.3 percentage point.

On the issue of data collection, Goldman’s economists said they expect the shutdown to have “a limited impact” on the quality of jobs data.

As for timing, Citigroup economists on Wednesday speculated that the September nonfarm payrolls report could be released as early as Friday but more likely in the early part of next week. They said it could take until early December to put together the October count.

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