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Message
New ST play (5/21 11:41AM) - $CRNC
Posted on 5/23/26 at 6:57 am
Posted on 5/23/26 at 6:57 am
Cerence $CRNC
In our robotics basket, one of our running thesis is the idea that automotive technology companies have cross-applicable platforms to a world of physical AI. Modern cars are robots. Those cars engaging with people and their environments has direct relevance to "robots" doing the same thing.
Our first two picks in this vein were $VLN @ $1.57 and $BB $6C @ $.87 both of those picks have worked *extremely well* so far.
The company currently trades at a very reasonable valuation (13 forward P/E, 6.5x FCF, 1.5x sales) with an explosive chart on all time frames (daily consolidating around 200sma, weekly consolidating around 50sma).
In 2025, Cerence technology was used in *52% of all automobiles produced worldwide*. Yes... you read that right, over half of every single car produced. When you interact with a car with your voice ("Hey Mercedes", "Hey BMW", "Hey Audi", "Hey Jeep", etc.) Cerence is most likely involved.
So, what's the AI angle? Voice AI is Cerence’s core market. The company’s historical competency is speech-driven control in noisy, embedded, real-world environments.
That matters because the car is one of the most difficult consumer environments for voice AI:
- background road/wind/cabin noise
- multiple passengers speaking from different seats
- intermittent connectivity
- safety-sensitive user commands
- multi-language/localization requirements
- OEM-specific cockpit APIs
- privacy and data-retention constraints
Many of these issues are cross-applicable to robotics. Cerence’s edge/cloud hybrid architecture is well-suited to this domain. Pure cloud AI can be more flexible, but cloud-only systems can fail when connectivity is poor or latency is unacceptable. Pure edge systems are more reliable and private but historically less capable. Cerence is trying to combine both.
The company is leaning into this cross-application. On the last earnings call:
*"Outside of automotive, consistent with what we have said in the past, we are concentrating our efforts on high-value verticals where our strength in edge solutions, quality, reliability, privacy, and a domain-focused approach matter most, and where we believe we have a clear right to win.
Specifically, we are prioritizing dealership AI, commercial and industrial operations, and select IoT and robotics applications. Rather than selling voice as a standalone component, our approach is to deliver full vertical solutions combining voice, LLMs and SLMs, orchestration, and workflow integration into purpose-built vertical packs."*
Cerence xUI is directly relevant here. Management describes xUI as a next-generation AI interface that can use Cerence’s CaLLM models, third-party LLMs, third-party agents, real-time data, and vehicle context. The company said in Q1 FY26 that it showcased next-generation LLM-powered experiences and new AI agents serving users across the vehicle purchase and ownership journey; in Q2 FY26, it said xUI-powered vehicles were entering production
Cerence’s capabilities — far-field audio, speech understanding, context-aware interaction, edge inference, cloud orchestration, wake-word, multi-zone awareness, and task execution — are portable to other embodied interfaces. The company already says its technology can apply beyond passenger cars to areas like two-wheelers, commercial trucks, TVs, smart watches, kiosks, and industrial automation markets. That means that the platform has clear cross-application potential for *physical devices* in general.
This name will *cross-apply* to our robotics + voice AI basket, but will be listed as Voice AI because that is the most relevant angle here for the current tech stack.
Filled $10C Aug 21 '26 @ $1.85 avg. 1.5% weighting.
In our robotics basket, one of our running thesis is the idea that automotive technology companies have cross-applicable platforms to a world of physical AI. Modern cars are robots. Those cars engaging with people and their environments has direct relevance to "robots" doing the same thing.
Our first two picks in this vein were $VLN @ $1.57 and $BB $6C @ $.87 both of those picks have worked *extremely well* so far.
The company currently trades at a very reasonable valuation (13 forward P/E, 6.5x FCF, 1.5x sales) with an explosive chart on all time frames (daily consolidating around 200sma, weekly consolidating around 50sma).
In 2025, Cerence technology was used in *52% of all automobiles produced worldwide*. Yes... you read that right, over half of every single car produced. When you interact with a car with your voice ("Hey Mercedes", "Hey BMW", "Hey Audi", "Hey Jeep", etc.) Cerence is most likely involved.
So, what's the AI angle? Voice AI is Cerence’s core market. The company’s historical competency is speech-driven control in noisy, embedded, real-world environments.
That matters because the car is one of the most difficult consumer environments for voice AI:
- background road/wind/cabin noise
- multiple passengers speaking from different seats
- intermittent connectivity
- safety-sensitive user commands
- multi-language/localization requirements
- OEM-specific cockpit APIs
- privacy and data-retention constraints
Many of these issues are cross-applicable to robotics. Cerence’s edge/cloud hybrid architecture is well-suited to this domain. Pure cloud AI can be more flexible, but cloud-only systems can fail when connectivity is poor or latency is unacceptable. Pure edge systems are more reliable and private but historically less capable. Cerence is trying to combine both.
The company is leaning into this cross-application. On the last earnings call:
*"Outside of automotive, consistent with what we have said in the past, we are concentrating our efforts on high-value verticals where our strength in edge solutions, quality, reliability, privacy, and a domain-focused approach matter most, and where we believe we have a clear right to win.
Specifically, we are prioritizing dealership AI, commercial and industrial operations, and select IoT and robotics applications. Rather than selling voice as a standalone component, our approach is to deliver full vertical solutions combining voice, LLMs and SLMs, orchestration, and workflow integration into purpose-built vertical packs."*
Cerence xUI is directly relevant here. Management describes xUI as a next-generation AI interface that can use Cerence’s CaLLM models, third-party LLMs, third-party agents, real-time data, and vehicle context. The company said in Q1 FY26 that it showcased next-generation LLM-powered experiences and new AI agents serving users across the vehicle purchase and ownership journey; in Q2 FY26, it said xUI-powered vehicles were entering production
Cerence’s capabilities — far-field audio, speech understanding, context-aware interaction, edge inference, cloud orchestration, wake-word, multi-zone awareness, and task execution — are portable to other embodied interfaces. The company already says its technology can apply beyond passenger cars to areas like two-wheelers, commercial trucks, TVs, smart watches, kiosks, and industrial automation markets. That means that the platform has clear cross-application potential for *physical devices* in general.
This name will *cross-apply* to our robotics + voice AI basket, but will be listed as Voice AI because that is the most relevant angle here for the current tech stack.
Filled $10C Aug 21 '26 @ $1.85 avg. 1.5% weighting.
5
Posted on 5/23/26 at 7:39 am to itsbigmikey
I prefer SOUN
Posted on 5/23/26 at 8:14 am to itsbigmikey
The dude has been a cheat code lately.
I wish I would have had the patience with ENS, PLPC, AMKR, VIAV, etc. etc.
I may grab a few January $15s or just shares.
I wish I would have had the patience with ENS, PLPC, AMKR, VIAV, etc. etc.
I may grab a few January $15s or just shares.
Posted on 5/23/26 at 8:43 am to itsbigmikey
Assuming ST = short term, what’s the time horizon you expect?
Posted on 5/23/26 at 8:46 am to turkish
ST refers to Stock Talk. A discord I subscribe to
Posted on 5/23/26 at 9:28 am to itsbigmikey
Appreciate the info 
I don’t understand how anyone can have more than $5,000 invested and not SIGN UP for an X account and follow stock talk.
It’s fricking irresponsible at this point.
At the very least, he opens you up to the relevant themes. Even if you’re not in the same names that he shares, you know where NOT to be, and how NOT to invest.
I don’t understand how anyone can have more than $5,000 invested and not SIGN UP for an X account and follow stock talk.
It’s fricking irresponsible at this point.
At the very least, he opens you up to the relevant themes. Even if you’re not in the same names that he shares, you know where NOT to be, and how NOT to invest.
Posted on 5/23/26 at 10:00 am to bayoubengals88
I guess I’ll have to post the performance of his picks soon.
You can hate, but it’ll only be because you love 14% returns
You can hate, but it’ll only be because you love 14% returns
Posted on 5/23/26 at 10:04 am to bayoubengals88
And look, I get it. If your household income is 250k or more and you can easily max out ALL the accounts, then 5-15% is great for you over 35 years.
That makes you a top 5 preventer easily by the way…
But some of us have to do some research and generate some alpha if we want a punchers chance at a decent second half of life, God willing.
That makes you a top 5 preventer easily by the way…
But some of us have to do some research and generate some alpha if we want a punchers chance at a decent second half of life, God willing.
Posted on 5/23/26 at 10:17 am to bayoubengals88
I’ll be following with a few call options Monday, hoping for early AM red
Posted on 5/23/26 at 10:18 am to bayoubengals88
Some people are happy with fairly steady and consistent market growth returns. It’s extremely low effort and effective. But you can absolutely beat the market over time as a small portfolio if you put in the work and follow a disciplined strategy. I prefer to put in the work. It’s a profitable hobby for me
Posted on 5/23/26 at 10:48 am to Upperdecker
Why do you prefer SOUND. Would be great to hear your input
Posted on 5/23/26 at 11:17 am to astonvilla
SOUN is growth vs Cerence is more of a value play. SOUN has a much higher multiple but also much better growth performance.
Cerence isn’t doing a lot outside of automotive industry, while SOUN is growing rapidly in multiple industries. SOUN is also a pure AI play - they aren’t changing business models. Their products are already showing strong use cases and winning repeat business. Plus Soun recently put out an agentic AI platform that could be a huge product for them as agentic AI is the next huge growth industry. It’s already won some awards that will get them recognition. Plus they have a ton of AI IP to work with. The concern with SOUN is achieving profitability - management doesn’t seem concerned with cost control, they want rapid growth. And while their growth is really good, it’s not exploding yet.
Cerence in my research is much less growth and more value play. They aren’t really considered an AI company. That could lead to a huge revaluation if they prove they’re good at AI. But they’ll have to do it with revenue growth. And in automative Soun is cheaper and shows better voice AI performance, plus edge capabilities (operating LLMs without internet connection)
Cerence isn’t doing a lot outside of automotive industry, while SOUN is growing rapidly in multiple industries. SOUN is also a pure AI play - they aren’t changing business models. Their products are already showing strong use cases and winning repeat business. Plus Soun recently put out an agentic AI platform that could be a huge product for them as agentic AI is the next huge growth industry. It’s already won some awards that will get them recognition. Plus they have a ton of AI IP to work with. The concern with SOUN is achieving profitability - management doesn’t seem concerned with cost control, they want rapid growth. And while their growth is really good, it’s not exploding yet.
Cerence in my research is much less growth and more value play. They aren’t really considered an AI company. That could lead to a huge revaluation if they prove they’re good at AI. But they’ll have to do it with revenue growth. And in automative Soun is cheaper and shows better voice AI performance, plus edge capabilities (operating LLMs without internet connection)
Posted on 5/23/26 at 11:46 am to Upperdecker
Thank you
Posted on 5/23/26 at 1:38 pm to Upperdecker
quote:This is quintessential stock talk investment philosophy.
Cerence in my research is much less growth and more value play. They aren’t really considered an AI company. That could lead to a huge revaluation if they prove they’re good at AI.
He is amazing at finding deep value that re rates to growth.
VIAV, PLCP, and AMKR are the best examples.
Posted on 5/23/26 at 8:02 pm to turkish
Posted on 5/26/26 at 1:00 pm to itsbigmikey
Can you please help me out with a VLN thesis?
Posted on 5/26/26 at 1:06 pm to bayoubengals88
THE GOOD, THE BAD, THE UGLY -- THE FORGOTTEN SEMICONDUCTORS
HIGH RISK, HIGH-VOLATILITY, SMALL-CAP -- SIZE APPROPRIATELY
A lot of former SPACs have seen their return to fame in the last few years, many rallying from $1-3 per share to double digits in short-order. Some are shitcos, some aren't. For the most part, they have been narrative-driven. Some have been value-driven. But, there are some are *BOTH* interesting thematically and fundamentally.
I think Valen Semiconductor $VLN is one of those stocks.
THEMATIC RELEVANCE: Valen fits into the Edge AI + Robotics basket we are building, VLN is a sensor-data connectivity company for edge-AI systems. In robotics, that means it can help move high-resolution camera data from the robot’s “eyes” to the robot’s “brain”.
I would view it as *complementary* to SYNA / OSS / VPG / CTS, and not redundant. $SYNA is closer to edge processors, wireless connectivity & human-machine interface. $OSS is rugged edge compute. $VPG and $CTS are physical-world sensing, measurement & actuation. $VLN would add the high-bandwidth “nervous system” layer *between sensors and compute*, so it almost fits seamlessly.
VLN’s key edge-AI/robotics asset is VA7000, its MIPI A-PHY-compliant SerDes chipset family. A-PHY is a long-reach serializer/deserializer physical-layer interface originally developed for automotive ADAS/ADS and surround-sensor applications. It supports high-speed unidirectional data, embedded bidirectional control data & optional power delivery. It has potential applications in advanced robotics as robotics is moving from simple automation toward perception-heavy automation. Robots increasingly need to understand their surroundings. That requires cameras and sensors feeding AI models.
FUNDAMENTAL VALUE: The stock, although burning cash, is *extremely cheap*. It trades at **1.7x CASH, 1.5x book, and 1.0x EV/sales**... *Any* positive news of *any* kind could force an immediate rerating. This is a basement valuation that is pricing zero optimism and zero expectations. That presents a compelling risk-reward.
NO IMMEDIATE SOLVENCY RISK: Yes, the company is burning some cash. Operating cash flow was negative $12.7 million in FY2025. Nonetheless, solvency & bankruptcy risk are extremely low. The company has too much cash relative to current liabilities, no traditional debt, no maturity wall, and disclosed liquidity sufficient for at least twelve months. On the latest numbers, it has roughly $92.6 million of cash/deposits against $22.9 million of current liabilities with current assets of $118.7 million, and shareholders’ equity of $105.0 million.
Layman's logic tree:
1. Edge-AI systems need more cameras and sensors.
2. More cameras create more high-bandwidth data transport problems.
3. Centralized compute architectures make long, robust sensor links more valuable.
4. Robotics, industrial vehicles, medical imaging, and ADAS all need reliable low-latency video.
5. VLN has relevant standards leadership through HDBaseT and MIPI A-PHY.
6. VA7000 can be repurposed beyond automotive into industrial vision, medical, video conferencing, and robotics.
7. If A-PHY becomes broadly adopted, VLN could benefit from early technical credibility and ecosystem position.
The chart since inception is obviously not pretty at first glance. It's been beaten down for years. But, that's precisely what presents an interesting risk-reward profile. There are signs of bottoming. On the daily chart, the stock has reclaimed its 9/21EMAs and is tucked underneath the 200-day. On the weekly, the stock has also reclaimed the 9/21EMAs and is tucked underneath the 50-week. This is the moving average "pinch" that I discuss on many of my live streams <#1441560421822627860>
Because of the great cushion I've built so far this year by more than doubling the portfolio, I am going to take some risk here. This name will join the EDGE AI + ROBOTICS basket. I'm taking a 5.5% position in *all shares* in $VLN @1.57 <@&933985135391547462>
HIGH RISK, HIGH-VOLATILITY, SMALL-CAP -- SIZE APPROPRIATELY
A lot of former SPACs have seen their return to fame in the last few years, many rallying from $1-3 per share to double digits in short-order. Some are shitcos, some aren't. For the most part, they have been narrative-driven. Some have been value-driven. But, there are some are *BOTH* interesting thematically and fundamentally.
I think Valen Semiconductor $VLN is one of those stocks.
THEMATIC RELEVANCE: Valen fits into the Edge AI + Robotics basket we are building, VLN is a sensor-data connectivity company for edge-AI systems. In robotics, that means it can help move high-resolution camera data from the robot’s “eyes” to the robot’s “brain”.
I would view it as *complementary* to SYNA / OSS / VPG / CTS, and not redundant. $SYNA is closer to edge processors, wireless connectivity & human-machine interface. $OSS is rugged edge compute. $VPG and $CTS are physical-world sensing, measurement & actuation. $VLN would add the high-bandwidth “nervous system” layer *between sensors and compute*, so it almost fits seamlessly.
VLN’s key edge-AI/robotics asset is VA7000, its MIPI A-PHY-compliant SerDes chipset family. A-PHY is a long-reach serializer/deserializer physical-layer interface originally developed for automotive ADAS/ADS and surround-sensor applications. It supports high-speed unidirectional data, embedded bidirectional control data & optional power delivery. It has potential applications in advanced robotics as robotics is moving from simple automation toward perception-heavy automation. Robots increasingly need to understand their surroundings. That requires cameras and sensors feeding AI models.
FUNDAMENTAL VALUE: The stock, although burning cash, is *extremely cheap*. It trades at **1.7x CASH, 1.5x book, and 1.0x EV/sales**... *Any* positive news of *any* kind could force an immediate rerating. This is a basement valuation that is pricing zero optimism and zero expectations. That presents a compelling risk-reward.
NO IMMEDIATE SOLVENCY RISK: Yes, the company is burning some cash. Operating cash flow was negative $12.7 million in FY2025. Nonetheless, solvency & bankruptcy risk are extremely low. The company has too much cash relative to current liabilities, no traditional debt, no maturity wall, and disclosed liquidity sufficient for at least twelve months. On the latest numbers, it has roughly $92.6 million of cash/deposits against $22.9 million of current liabilities with current assets of $118.7 million, and shareholders’ equity of $105.0 million.
Layman's logic tree:
1. Edge-AI systems need more cameras and sensors.
2. More cameras create more high-bandwidth data transport problems.
3. Centralized compute architectures make long, robust sensor links more valuable.
4. Robotics, industrial vehicles, medical imaging, and ADAS all need reliable low-latency video.
5. VLN has relevant standards leadership through HDBaseT and MIPI A-PHY.
6. VA7000 can be repurposed beyond automotive into industrial vision, medical, video conferencing, and robotics.
7. If A-PHY becomes broadly adopted, VLN could benefit from early technical credibility and ecosystem position.
The chart since inception is obviously not pretty at first glance. It's been beaten down for years. But, that's precisely what presents an interesting risk-reward profile. There are signs of bottoming. On the daily chart, the stock has reclaimed its 9/21EMAs and is tucked underneath the 200-day. On the weekly, the stock has also reclaimed the 9/21EMAs and is tucked underneath the 50-week. This is the moving average "pinch" that I discuss on many of my live streams <#1441560421822627860>
Because of the great cushion I've built so far this year by more than doubling the portfolio, I am going to take some risk here. This name will join the EDGE AI + ROBOTICS basket. I'm taking a 5.5% position in *all shares* in $VLN @1.57 <@&933985135391547462>
Posted on 5/26/26 at 1:29 pm to bayoubengals88
I got a couple loose duckies to throw around before the closing bell today.
What gets the endorsement for my cheese Baw?
What gets the endorsement for my cheese Baw?
Posted on 5/26/26 at 2:35 pm to SuperSaint
A took a small flyer on ARBE due to thematic relevance.
I’ve made enough this month to do silly things.
I took a much larger position VLN this morning because it intersects will all my holdings.
I’ve made enough this month to do silly things.
I took a much larger position VLN this morning because it intersects will all my holdings.
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