re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

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Just realistic on what companies multiples are priced at long term.

Nothing changed fundamentally about PayPal or XYZ. When the euphoria over payment stocks subsided, their multiples dwindled. PayPal trades today at an 11 PE. Back in its best days it was well over 50-60 PE

Look at the once high flyer SAAS names like TTD. Once traded at a 200 PE. Now it’s 30

I see the same for the neoclouds. Forward PE on NBIS is 171. Literally nothing could change about the company and you’ll get a steep decline in stock price based on multiples alone.

I guess if you are invested in this you have to hope it gets the same treatment as CRWD or TSLA. I don’t think it well. The stock market is full of sectors that are hot for a couple years then deflate. It’s usually the ones that go up fast. Go down fast. And flatline. Covid was full of these types of stock moves.

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I don't think you could have chosen a worse comparison, and if you end up being right it'll be the best blind squirrel example I've ever seen.

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Nothing changed fundamentally about PayPal or XYZ.

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Uhh, besides their growth significantly slowing down, sure!

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Forward PE on NBIS is 171. Literally nothing could change about the company and you’ll get a steep decline in stock price based on multiples alone.

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Uhh...but things ARE changing for NBIS. Notably the YoY revenue growth to the tune of five, six, SEVEN HUNDRED percent. Just pick one.

When ARR goes from 1.1bn to 10bn in twelve months, forward P/E will keep a healthy multiple under normal circumstances.

And circumstances are currently far worse than "normal". The tech selloff in momentum names over the past weeks is FAR worse than in 2000. And NBIS is still higher than it was a year ago.