re: Money Talk challenge (1 year update)

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I think you are missing the point. NVDA's rise is likely the fastest in history in terms of absolute market value creation and revenue scaling. So, it took making history for NVDA to do it. So, while bitcoin didn't win, that doesn't make what it has done any less spectacular. So, what this all does show is that BAMA made a shite pile of money and he even showed and explained his hand to you. People still ignored the reality. Some people make money by seeing the future, others refuse to see and are down right negative about those realities. I wish I had seen his original post, I didn't get turned on to bitcoin until the middle of last year (so, I made money, but not what he did).

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Here's another point: 10-12 years ago, predicting NVDA's rise would have been more utile than predicting bitcoin's rise. Yet few did it. Just because bitcoin has gone up, doesn't mean it's any different than the usual dart throwing with hindsight bias.

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Lol, I totally agree with everything you said. It's gonna be crazier than ever. This is why I was surprised that BAMA wasn't still bullish. There is only so much bitcoin and the amount that is being gobbled up is increasing until push is going to come to shove (I think sooner than later). So, we wait......

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Just like you said, "we wait". That's the way it always is with Bitcoin. Its typical to see Bitcoin trade sideways and downward for months and then it will trade sideways and trend up. The great majority of Bitcoin's gains in most years happens on approximately a half dozen days.

I got heavy into buying actual BTC and many alt coins, plus GBTC in 2016. Since then I converted all of my alt coins into Bitcoin and have held and never sold any of my actual Bitcoin. I also transitioned all of my GBTC to Bitcoin ETFs and derivatives in Jan 2024.

I think BAMA also got into Bitcoin in 2016. The volatility was much greater back then, and Bitcoin has still been really volatile until the ETFs were approved on 1/11/24. Bitcoin volatility has slowly declined since then although it is still volatile. I'm also surprised that BAMA is not still very bullish as Bitcoin is still a fledgling new asset class after the ETFs were approved.

Over time I see Bitcoin still rising significantly but the volatility will continue to lessen. Most Bitcoin holders don't like volatility. I love it. I've made a lot trading Bitcoin volatility within my Roth and traditional IRA and HSA accounts since early 2024 when I created my own strategy.

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SPY? Man, I took a look but as GW Bush would say that is some fuzzy math

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Yeah I didn’t mean 5/5/21-5/4/25, I was referencing a thread I made in March when BTC was outpaced by SPY by 11% total over the 4 years.

My point then, as it is now, is that kind of stuff has never happened with BTC, and any bull in 2021 would have been shocked to find that out.

I’m not a hater, just pointing out that things have clearly changed with BTC as it matures.

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It's ok, you don't understand bitcoin, many don't. I was in that camp until a year ago. You have to have a want to understand and then many hours of listening and thinking about it. It's rise isn't a coincidence.

A $1000 in bitcoin 10 years ago would have you at over 350k today. A $1000 in NVDA stock 10 years ago would have you at around 228k give or take. So, it still wouldn't have been more utile to predict NVDA. If you think predicting stocks by studying and getting into the technology enough to understand where the future is going is akin to throwing darts, I definitely wouldn't be investing in stocks outside of an ETF If I were you.

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