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Lower Stock Prices Are The Fed's Goal

Posted on 1/11/23 at 9:12 am
Posted by ItzMe1972
Member since Dec 2013
12639 posts
Posted on 1/11/23 at 9:12 am
Interesting article I read this morning.

Fed members will not say it as bluntly as we do in our title. But they have a long-held belief that stock prices directly impact the economy and, therefore, inflation. Thus, in the Fed’s efforts to quell inflation, it makes sense that they are likely using their stock market lever, specifically lower stock prices, to help improve the efficacy of monetary policy.


Ben Bernanke laid the groundwork for the Wealth Effect. His theory associates stock prices with the transmission of monetary policy to the economy.

In a speech entitled Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Some Empirical Results Bernanke states:

The logic goes as follows: Easier monetary policy, for example, raises stock prices. Higher stock prices increase the wealth of households, prompting consumers to spend more–a result known as the wealth effect. Moreover, high stock prices effectively reduce the cost of capital for firms, stimulating increased capital investment. Increases in both types of spending–consumer spending and business spending–tend to stimulate the economy.

Bernanke argues that additional wealth resulting from stock market gains results in more household spending. While he doesn’t say it in this speech, the Wealth Effect also works in reverse!

LINK
This post was edited on 1/11/23 at 9:15 am
Posted by WhiskeyThrottle
Weatherford Tx
Member since Nov 2017
7241 posts
Posted on 1/11/23 at 9:30 am to
The problem with government is that they are convinced they are smarter than business owners and the gen pop. The reality is they are far from it, and the market will use every tool in the box to maximize profitability regardless of the rules. This is why the ultra rich expose every rule available to pay as little tax as possible. . . Which everyone should do.
Posted by wutangfinancial
Treasure Valley
Member since Sep 2015
11958 posts
Posted on 1/11/23 at 9:41 am to
Controlling the narrative is the Fed's goal because that's all they can do
Posted by ynlvr
Rocket City
Member since Feb 2009
5548 posts
Posted on 1/11/23 at 9:50 am to
quote:

they are likely using their stock market lever, specifically lower stock prices, to help improve the efficacy of monetary policy.

Then 2022 was a very successful year for the FED.
Posted by Hussss
Helena, AL
Member since Oct 2016
7802 posts
Posted on 1/11/23 at 10:01 am to
Let’s call them exactly what they are:

A criminal organization

Counterfeiters

Skimmers


Their job is to separate average folks from their money and give to the Wall St. banks, investment houses and the rest of their criminal friends.

Full stop
Posted by AUCE05
Member since Dec 2009
45364 posts
Posted on 1/11/23 at 10:28 am to
The author just made that up.
Posted by el Gaucho
He/They
Member since Dec 2010
59169 posts
Posted on 1/11/23 at 3:51 pm to
The feds goal is to take everything you have and pass it along to israel bruh

If you catch my drift
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
41018 posts
Posted on 1/11/23 at 4:34 pm to
If that was really the goal, they should talk to their friends in Congress and get rid of - or substantially limit - qualified divideds.

In tax history, the concept that corporate dividends are taxed favorably compared to corporate interest is relatively new.

The tax favored status of corprorate dividends absolutely has an impact on stock prices. Get rid of that and it dries up the market some, which will bring down prices.
Posted by BarleyPop
Member since Nov 2016
702 posts
Posted on 1/11/23 at 10:58 pm to
If monthly core comes in low tomorrow, they will have no reason related to their dual mandate (inflation and employment) to raise any more than the .25 coming from the next meeting.

So...low core monthly reading tomorrow (.2 or less/.3 probably ok) and they should hike once more and be done.

If the number is low tomorrow and they STILL insist on talking about more hikes in their statement, then it will be entirely due to trying to keep financial markets "down".

This is a whole lotta hypothetical because you are a few weeks early with the post. A few things have to happen before they would be shown to be fighting stocks and not inflation.

But I understand the frustration of the article because the rhetoric from their last meeting was unnecessarily hawkish.

ETA:

A high mc# in the morning (.4 or more) would likely cause a nasty drop in stocks that could run. BUT Biden just scheduled a press conference to talk about tackling inflation at 10am eastern shortly after CPI goes public. Hmmm. I read that as him knowing the number already and wanting to take credit for a low reading.
This post was edited on 1/11/23 at 11:40 pm
Posted by I Love Bama
Alabama
Member since Nov 2007
38436 posts
Posted on 1/12/23 at 4:50 am to
Wow. I wonder who on the MT has been saying that over and over again.
Posted by JLivermore
Wendover
Member since Dec 2015
1733 posts
Posted on 1/12/23 at 7:17 am to
What is a new discovery for you has been priced in by many for over a year now, fwiw. Sometimes can be helpful to know where you stand in the info flow.
Posted by BarleyPop
Member since Nov 2016
702 posts
Posted on 1/12/23 at 9:26 am to
quote:

helpful to know where you stand in the info flow.


This inconspicuous statement is actually HUGE.

By the time an event happens (CPI numbers come out for example) its already been traded for a week or more by people placing educated bets on what will happen.

When you don't get the reaction you would expect from an event, its because traders are done trading it and are preparing for whats to come.

Posted by BarleyPop
Member since Nov 2016
702 posts
Posted on 1/12/23 at 9:50 am to
quote:

BUT Biden just scheduled a press conference to talk about tackling inflation at 10am eastern shortly after CPI goes public. Hmmm. I read that as him knowing the number already and wanting to take credit for a low reading.


Update:

Biden at podium talking about inflation dropping. Who knew? And how could you have profited from it? ;)
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