re: Is the Fed killing the housing market?

House prices remain hot until unemployment creeps (people have the money and confidence to spend more).

If/when unemployment creeps, you will see a sharp correction in prices (how much depends upon the level of unemployment. Consumer confidence is the biggest driver of the direction of housing prices).

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Is the Fed killing the housing market?

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Sort of. The Fed created the housing frenzy we've seen over the last few years by keeping rates low. Even when the market was doing well, the Fed would shy away from raising rates because just mentioning it would send the market into spasms (see: addiction).

So they've kicked the can down the road but now we've reached a point where continuing to kick it would end up being worse than ripping off the band-aid. Raising rates will pull money out of the market, thus curtailing inflation, but it will also necessitate a slowdown in the market (read: unemployment increases) in the meantime.

The further up they go eventually gives them more room to lower rates to spur growth after the economy stabilizes from the increases (the sweet spot for good growth balanced by rates seems to be around 5%, which we haven't seen in over a decade).

Not doing so would be to keep a glut of money in the economy, increasing inflation with no mechanism for bringing it back down.

So, yes they are killing it but they created it and it needs to be killed a bit for longer-term considerations.

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Instead of seeing 22% year over year gains it will be 9%. Prices aren’t going anywhere until the inventory problem is sorted. Higher rates means less people selling. Inventory is forecasted to be lower in Q3 and Q4 than it is now. Think about that for a minute.

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There are a lot of people on the sidelines that have cashed out and are sitting on cash. When some relief in costs come there is going to be another wave for the real estate market IMO.

Sitting on a bunch of cash and looking for a home right now. Hoping things cool down.

your vacation homes are toast

primary homes should be better off