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re: Is October when the bottom falls out of the market?
Posted on 10/16/22 at 4:09 pm to BarleyPop
Posted on 10/16/22 at 4:09 pm to BarleyPop
My ACTUAL predictions and not "what ifs" (so Bard can absolutely shite himself and bilge out an entire page of text and gifs when I'm wrong):
1. Fed .75 Nov. 2nd as long as financial markets hold up reasonably well between now and then. Potential for a .5 surprise but I think they handle that as follows:
2. This ones a big deal. Powell will officially telegraph a slowdown in hikes after Nov 2nd meeting aka no more .75s regardless of data. Fedspeak has already been hinting at this. Once markets can relax about high inflation (lagging readings) not causing .75 reactions, we will get some dollar weakness and stock strength.
3. Dow 32,000 or more within a month.
4. Usd/Cad 1.36 or less within a month. (Currently 1.39 and rising fast.)
5. Fed .5 in December
*when 4&5 happen depends on if markets run with the hints or wait to outright be told Nov 2nd.
Bard,
These are predictions. I'd ask for yours, but after seeing you fumble frick all over yourself intraday, I could not care less.
1. Fed .75 Nov. 2nd as long as financial markets hold up reasonably well between now and then. Potential for a .5 surprise but I think they handle that as follows:
2. This ones a big deal. Powell will officially telegraph a slowdown in hikes after Nov 2nd meeting aka no more .75s regardless of data. Fedspeak has already been hinting at this. Once markets can relax about high inflation (lagging readings) not causing .75 reactions, we will get some dollar weakness and stock strength.
3. Dow 32,000 or more within a month.
4. Usd/Cad 1.36 or less within a month. (Currently 1.39 and rising fast.)
5. Fed .5 in December
*when 4&5 happen depends on if markets run with the hints or wait to outright be told Nov 2nd.
Bard,
These are predictions. I'd ask for yours, but after seeing you fumble frick all over yourself intraday, I could not care less.
This post was edited on 10/16/22 at 4:41 pm
3
Posted on 10/16/22 at 7:01 pm to BarleyPop
**meant to say when 3 and 4 happen...
Posted on 10/17/22 at 1:28 pm to Bard
quote:
Bard
quote:
thus why we aren't seeing the Dow being up "1000s" now, nor will it be for the rest of the year.
Well that lasted a whole 2 business days. Good job.
:Dave Chappelle crackhead gif:
Got any more of them Pro Tips?
Posted on 10/17/22 at 7:31 pm to Shankopotomus
quote:
We have definitely reached "peak inflation" for now because of the YOY run up. Demand falling off a cliff already all over the place
Have you considered the continued supply chain issues? Inflation isn’t just being driven by demand.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 9:23 pm to BarleyPop
quote:
Got any more of them Pro Tips?
No, I'm quite enjoying watching your tantrum, please continue. It's not every day that I trigger a preening peacock so badly that they make multiple posts about me.
I can't wait for the next one.
Posted on 10/19/22 at 8:28 am to Bard
If you want to see triggered, go re-read that full blown psychotic break you had on page 3. The entire premise of which you created in your own mind because of your inability to comprehend simple sentences.
Its because you felt talked down to. Aw.
Its because you felt talked down to. Aw.
Posted on 10/20/22 at 7:31 am to BarleyPop
quote:
If you want to see triggered
quote:
Where did the 6 upvotes come from???!!!
Posted on 10/21/22 at 11:56 am to BarleyPop
quote:
BarleyPop 10/16/22
1. Fed .75 Nov. 2nd as long as financial markets hold up reasonably well between now and then. Potential for a .5 surprise but I think they handle that as follows:
2. This ones a big deal. Powell will officially telegraph a slowdown in hikes after Nov 2nd meeting aka no more .75s regardless of data. Fedspeak has already been hinting at this. Once markets can relax about high inflation (lagging readings) not causing .75 reactions, we will get some dollar weakness and stock strength.
Wall Street Journal 10/21/22
Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes
If any of you continue to question who's really plugged in vs. who's playing on their phone in momma's basement thats on you.
Posted on 10/25/22 at 9:09 am to BarleyPop
quote:
2. This ones a big deal. Powell will officially telegraph a slowdown in hikes after Nov 2nd meeting aka no more .75s regardless of data. Fedspeak has already been hinting at this. Once markets can relax about high inflation (lagging readings) not causing .75 reactions, we will get some dollar weakness and stock strength.
3. Dow 32,000 or more within a month.
4. Usd/Cad 1.36 or less within a month. (Currently 1.39 and rising fast.)
3&4. Dow approaching 32 and dollar/cad near 1.36 so you gotta go ahead and consider those targets hit and cash out on those calls.
2. The Wall Street Journal article communicated this.
Moving forward...
I'm not a fan of risk sentiment recovering strongly into the Fed meeting next week. I would rather weak markets going into the Fed that cause a dovish outcome. Rising markets and tanking dollar will cause Powell to be more hawkish/aggressive.
Posted on 10/26/22 at 1:41 am to BarleyPop
Boy was I wrong
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