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Is APA a buy at these levels
Posted on 9/27/20 at 10:00 am
Posted on 9/27/20 at 10:00 am
Theyve been getting hammered lately. Picked up a few shares Friday.. probably will cost average down if they go lower.
4
Posted on 9/27/20 at 10:18 am to LChama
quote:
probably will cost average down if they go lower.
maybe unpopular but I never do this. That is I never buy more of a stock until it’s above my original purchase price at some point
never add to a loser until it becomes a winner.
you can always bail out and buy it again lower (but be mindful of wash sale timeframe)
This post was edited on 9/27/20 at 10:20 am
Posted on 9/27/20 at 10:33 am to cgrand
quote:
maybe unpopular but I never do this. That is I never buy more of a stock until it’s above my original purchase price at some point
Thanks cgrand. I see both sides. Im confident apache will rebound. If i picked the wrong entry point I can try again and lower my break even. Sometimes just the gymnastics of averaging down help keep me sane and sometimes it actually pays off.
Posted on 9/27/20 at 10:39 am to LChama
all it is risk management.
let’s say it drops another 10%, you buy more and it stays there for three months. Psychologically I’m going to be far less likely to want to hold at that point. It’s a double loss in my mind
So I would either take the loss now, or just hold what I have and then add more on the way up, above my purchase price
let’s say it drops another 10%, you buy more and it stays there for three months. Psychologically I’m going to be far less likely to want to hold at that point. It’s a double loss in my mind
So I would either take the loss now, or just hold what I have and then add more on the way up, above my purchase price
Posted on 9/27/20 at 2:43 pm to cgrand
quote:
maybe unpopular but I never do this. That is I never buy more of a stock until it’s above my original purchase price at some point
never add to a loser until it becomes a winner.
you can always bail out and buy it again lower (but be mindful of wash sale timeframe)
I think this is good advice in general.
But I don't think there's anything wrong with buying on the way down to accumulate for a long-term position. But to do this, I like to have a really strong conviction about the company's future. It basically needs to be a blue chip.
I definitely wouldn't do it with an energy company with a crappy dividend, though. I'd maybe do it with Chevron. Maybe. It does sound like the OP is chasing, which never works out for me. But to each their own.
Your point about opportunity cost is also a good one. It's hard to admit a mistake, it's also hard to know whether you've really made a mistake or just need to be more patient. It's also human nature to "get back to even" before cutting bait.
Posted on 9/27/20 at 5:31 pm to whitefoot
quote:
It's also human nature to "get back to even" before cutting bait.
that’s basically it.
I’m not adding to a loser until I’m back at least to even, more likely slightly in the green
I’ll take the loss before I add while still red. Lower risk is best, even if I miss an opportunity for a lower overall cost basis.
Posted on 9/27/20 at 10:01 pm to cgrand
It's a good thing this casino doesn't serve free drinks!
Good advice.
Good advice.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 8:07 am to Auburn1968
I wouldn't touch a smaller oil company with a 10 foot pole right now. Yes Trump has the GDP growth setting all time records, but there are so many companies/governments holding back the reins on what they are currently pumping out of the ground. Once oil prices start rising again, then I would consider purchasing.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 12:21 pm to tenderfoot tigah
I jumped into oil when the price per barrel hit zero. That worked out well.
XOM is looking like a steal this week.
XOM is looking like a steal this week.
Posted on 9/28/20 at 12:26 pm to LChama
Pre pandemic their quarterly dividend was 25 cents. I snagged it at $5.43. Debt load is reasonable (don't remember the ratio but I wouldn't have bought if they were overly leveraged).
Long term it has a decent yield and a lot of upside, as long as they can survive the pandemic and the coming Chy Na real estate bubble. I have a stop loss sell order if it drops to $7. I figure I can take a small profit and jump back in later.
Long term it has a decent yield and a lot of upside, as long as they can survive the pandemic and the coming Chy Na real estate bubble. I have a stop loss sell order if it drops to $7. I figure I can take a small profit and jump back in later.
Posted on 9/29/20 at 8:08 am to LChama
I just have a couple O&G stocks in my portfolio. OKE and XOM. What's wild is that even with the ridiculously high dividend yields, and absurdly low interest rates, nobody wants this stuff.
I was listening to an analyst that was talking about electric vehicles and he said that when these big companies start replacing their fleets with all EV's, oil is done. And that may be within the next 5-10 years depending on battery efficiencies.
I know there are still uses for oil and gas outside of cars and trucks but that accounts for about 65-70% of the market. It's time to start looking into the future which is what the stock market does.
I was listening to an analyst that was talking about electric vehicles and he said that when these big companies start replacing their fleets with all EV's, oil is done. And that may be within the next 5-10 years depending on battery efficiencies.
I know there are still uses for oil and gas outside of cars and trucks but that accounts for about 65-70% of the market. It's time to start looking into the future which is what the stock market does.
Posted on 9/29/20 at 11:00 am to LChama
Oil and Gas has been absolutely hammered the last 5 years, I think it will get better at some point but imo, not anytime soon
Posted on 9/29/20 at 12:22 pm to cgrand
quote:
you can always bail out and buy it again lower (but be mindful of wash sale timeframe)
Does the wash sale timeframe really matter? I’ve never paid much attention to it - all you’re doing is deferring the loss until you close the new position, right?
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