Some of you may have seen my previous posts on low risk, high reward, retail momentum plays such as GME, BB, and CLOV. Those went ok. Here’s one more

IPOF is a SPAC created by Chamath Paliphatiya, who brought stocks like Virgin Galactic, CLOV, SOFI, and OpenDoor to market through SPAC. Full disclosure, SPACs have been nailed mercilessly in the market the past 6 months, these being no exception. But these are higher quality than most SPAC companies, and appear to have seen bottom. IPOF and IPOD are the last two remaining SPACs in a series of SPACs created by Chamath. Both are relevant here.

The target company of IPOF is believed to be Starlink, the satellite communications company created by Elon Musk. Their primary focus is providing high speed internet in poorly served areas, such as recently deploying in Ukraine after the Russian invasion. Starlink is currently part of SpaceX. The combination of Starlink and SpaceX were valued at $100B by Morgan Stanley last year, with Starlink believed to be the more valuable part of the venture from a market perspective.
LINK
Starlink/SpaceX is valued as the second largest private company in the world.

As a SPAC, IPOF has a $10 floor. If no target is found, you get your $10 back when the company dissolves (roughly end of 2022). So your likely true bottom is somewhere around $9.80 if you wanted to sell early and there was an announcement that there would not be a SPAC merger. In a merger with Starlink, I’d imagine IPOF receives huge retail boost, resulting in a DWAC or TSLA effect (growing many times past the expected valuation). Elon has that effect, as seen by Twitter taking off today. So your risk reward ratio is fantastic, as the stock is currently at $10.20. 2% risk vs 500% reward. Your requirement is potentially patience

If you’re interested and want to buy in before the deal is announced, i would buy in between now and 4/19. 4/20 is the most obvious date for deal.

The rest of this post is evidence

Chamath is part of a podcast of influential venture capitalists, called the All-In Podcast. It’s worth a listen IMO. They’ve talked about Elon frequently, until recently. Past several months Elon has made many news worthy headlines and has not been mentioned once. Starlink has made headlines, and has not been mentioned once. Keep in mind, these are venture capitalists looking to invest or discuss late stage private companies like Discord, Reddit, SpaceX/Starlink, etc. But not one mention of SpaceX/Starlink. They would not be allowed to discuss SpaceX/Starlink if a deal was in the works.

Podcast is up to episode 74. Episode 69 was mysteriously skipped. The crew has mentioned this but not given a real reason, except that episode 69 will come out soon. 69 and 420 are Elon‘s favorite numbers. 4/20 is in 2.5 weeks. Put that together. Then keep in mind, they can’t talk Elon or SpaceX/Starlink if a deal is in the works and hasn’t been announced yet

IPOF structurally is the largest SPAC ever. It’s created for taking a giant company public. Starlink would need that sizing at its current valuation. IPOD, the other remaining SPAC, was restructured to mirror IPOF two weeks ago at a smaller scale - potentially to increase the size of IPOF.

Elon has a noted love for retail investors and has mentioned previously that when Starlink or SpaceX goes public, he wants retail to get a shot at them. SPAC would be the way to do that. Chamath and Elon are known to be friends and talk privately - flight tracking and cryptic tweets indicate they partied together in Tuscany a couple months ago (both have private jets so easy to track)

Chamath dropped a hint about IPOF by showing a specific watch with a celestial theme to it

The All-In podcast responded to comments about episode 69 twice last Friday (they had not done so previously) with the word “patience” - very vague but unlikely to comment if they don’t see it coming together soon

Based on SPAC dissolution timing, Chamath needs to put together a deal by the end of April. It’s not absolute, but the average time from deal announced to merger is 6 months, and so any time after April would be risking the merger finalization requirement of end of October

I’ll add more in here later, but this gives you an idea of the speculative investing being done here and what you’re getting yourself into. I post this now as timing feels about right. I notably posted about GME, BB, and CLOV with pretty accurate timing as well, but I’m just speculating on the timing here as nothing is written in stone. Look into it more if you’re interested. Not financial advice.