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Message
re: How high can NVDA run?
Posted on 10/23/24 at 7:39 am to slackster
Posted on 10/23/24 at 7:39 am to slackster
quote:
They’re not going to be a $25 Trillion company in the next 5 years.
You’re just throwing out numbers with no actual comprehension of what they mean or what it would take to get there.
That’s half of the value of the entire US stock market today.
$1000 per share is an objectively stupid thing to even suggest.
Blunt, but correct.
People are talking about NVDA going 5x from here likes it's a $500 Billion Dollar Company instead of a company with a 3.5 Trillion Market Cap
The GDP of the USA is $25 Trillion,
The China is 17 Trillion,
Yeah, NVDA is going of have a market cap greater than the GDP of China..
The current market cap of AAPL,MSFT,TSLA,AMZN combined is only $9 Trillion, just to point out the absurdity of NVDA being $20ish Trillion in 5 years.
It will be a monumental achievement if NVDA is at $7 Trillion in 5 years, which is only 100% in 5 years.
Not bad, but not exactly earth shattering returns.
And that doesn't even take into account the possibility that AI is a bust in which the downside is huge.
This post was edited on 10/23/24 at 11:05 am
2
Posted on 10/23/24 at 9:11 am to Norway
The wild part to me about NVDA is how it has left its competitors in the dust. AMD and Intel haven't done much across the past couple of years.
Apparently it is because of their CUDA platform-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CUDA
Question is if they are going to be able to copy, compete at some point?
Apparently it is because of their CUDA platform-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CUDA
Question is if they are going to be able to copy, compete at some point?
Posted on 10/23/24 at 9:27 am to Double Oh
I have held it for over 2 years now and am committed to another year or so. The new chip will drive strong numbers for a solid 2025. I will re-evaluate next fall. I think the stock growth slows but is solid for 2025. 20-25% increase to 150 range.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 9:37 am to KennytheTiger
You guys are insane. NVDA is now almost 12% of total US GDP.
Read that again.
The only other comparable bubble was Cisco in 2000. It hit 5% of GDP.
I love AI, love the company, but these valuations are insanity.
ETA: I hope I am wrong and you guys make a ton more money but when the entire world has piled into a trade it normally is too late.
Read that again.
The only other comparable bubble was Cisco in 2000. It hit 5% of GDP.
I love AI, love the company, but these valuations are insanity.
ETA: I hope I am wrong and you guys make a ton more money but when the entire world has piled into a trade it normally is too late.
This post was edited on 10/23/24 at 9:40 am
Posted on 10/23/24 at 10:26 am to Norway
Apple became the first real trillion dollar company back in 2018, now 6 years later it is $3.5 trillion. Nvidia became a trillion dollar company middle of 2023 and now sitting $3.4 trillion 1 year later.
The growth is staggering, however until some other chip maker can rival Nvidia, or the AI bubble pops, you are going to see a fast acceleration of their stock increase.
The LLMs are just the start, the next level of AI in media and analytics are next level. Within a couple of years you should expect to see feature length films and TV shows 100% done by AI. The entire thing audio and visual. Most companies are still trying to figure out how to integrate AI into business. They are sitting on mounds of data, but what do they do with it. "Business Intelligence" and "Machine Learning" have been terms sitting around for several years, but those in the end were all human driven operations. We are close to the point where we can unleash to businesses, true AI that will unlock patterns unseen by humans in the data.
I remember watching the episode of Black Mirror called "Joan is Awful", release in the middle of 2023. Interesting episode on how ones real life was being converted to a TV show in real time. Sitting here in Q4 of 2024, I am amazed how Black Mirror predicted the future yet again. The technology to make that episode a real life possibility is over 50% there.
NVDA is not going to $1000, however it can make a run to $300 - $500.
The growth is staggering, however until some other chip maker can rival Nvidia, or the AI bubble pops, you are going to see a fast acceleration of their stock increase.
The LLMs are just the start, the next level of AI in media and analytics are next level. Within a couple of years you should expect to see feature length films and TV shows 100% done by AI. The entire thing audio and visual. Most companies are still trying to figure out how to integrate AI into business. They are sitting on mounds of data, but what do they do with it. "Business Intelligence" and "Machine Learning" have been terms sitting around for several years, but those in the end were all human driven operations. We are close to the point where we can unleash to businesses, true AI that will unlock patterns unseen by humans in the data.
I remember watching the episode of Black Mirror called "Joan is Awful", release in the middle of 2023. Interesting episode on how ones real life was being converted to a TV show in real time. Sitting here in Q4 of 2024, I am amazed how Black Mirror predicted the future yet again
. The technology to make that episode a real life possibility is over 50% there. NVDA is not going to $1000, however it can make a run to $300 - $500.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 11:30 am to I Love Bama
quote:
You guys are insane. NVDA is now almost 12% of total US GDP.
Comparing NVDA market cap to US GDP is a weird metric IMO. The total stock market in 1999-2000 was approximately 170% of GDP. Today it’s closer to 190% of GDP. I couldn’t tell you what the right number is one way or the other.
I don’t think NVDA’s current valuation is insanity, but to expect similar returns over the next 5 years is. There just isn’t enough money out there to justify it. Their trailing 12m revenue growth is close to 200%. At that pace they’d pass Walmart in total revenue by 2026. That’s simply not going to happen.
They’ll continue to grow, but as it slows so to will the stock growth.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 11:51 am to slackster
quote:
Comparing NVDA market cap to US GDP is a weird metric IMO
People are just trying to make it clear to the $1000 Price Target Predictors just how much $20 Trillion Dollars is, and the lunacy of thinking NVDA will be there in 5 years.
The bigger they get, the more difficult it is to duplicate the the annual percentage gains.
The same way Berkshire, Apple, Microsoft probably used to have 500% ,1000% years decades ago when they were much smaller market caps, but it's impossible to do that now.
It's kind of like a guy who runs the 100m in 15 seconds cutting one second off of his time over the last year and thinking "man, at this rate in 10 years I'll be running the 100m in 5 seconds".
Not to mention that people aren't even considering the possibly that AI may end up not being as revolutionary and profitable as people hoped..
It's already tied with Apple for the biggest market cap in the world.
The stock price may not even be higher in 5 years, let alone 5x higher.
This post was edited on 10/23/24 at 12:00 pm
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:06 pm to Norway
quote:
possibly that AI may end up not being as revolutionary and profitable as people hoped.
Go on
AI is going to be pretty damn revolutionary.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 1:07 pm to slackster
quote:
$1,000 per share is an objectively stupid thing to even suggest.
Given the source, par for the course.
Posted on 10/23/24 at 2:01 pm to DarthRebel
quote:
Go on
AI is going to be pretty damn revolutionary.
It better be because it is priced accordingly.
If NVDA is heading to 20 trillion it's off to a rough start being down over 3 percent today.
And there is still the question of valuation even if AI is legit.
The idea that NVDA is going up 5x in the next 5 years is laughable.
Good Luck.
This post was edited on 10/23/24 at 2:08 pm
Posted on 10/23/24 at 2:20 pm to Norway
quote:
If NVDA is heading to 20 trillion it's off to
It is not in our lifetime, so get off that point
quote:
rough start being down over 3 percent today.
quote:
And there is still the question of valuation even if AI is legit.
I too laughed at the concept of crypto-currency. Somewhere WikiTiger is well
quote:
The idea that NVDA is going up 5x in the next 5 years is laughable
Posted on 10/23/24 at 11:03 pm to Kingpenm3
quote:.
AMD and Intel haven't done much across the past couple of years
AMD gpus are cpus are used in the fastest computer in the world.
There’s nothing special about the technology of CUDA.
Posted on 10/24/24 at 8:58 am to hob
quote:
AMD gpus are cpus are used in the fastest computer in the world.
There’s nothing special about the technology of CUDA.
I agree, I'm just trying to understand this:
Posted on 10/24/24 at 9:42 am to Kingpenm3
quote:
agree, I'm just trying to understand this:
Pretty straightforward…
Vs
Posted on 10/24/24 at 12:01 pm to Norway
To further expand on, will AI be a thing. Going with OpenAI 5 steps to AGI, we about to wrap up number 2. They announced it over Summer that it was imminent. All the cool AI we have known so far was Level 1, which is essentially a tool that can unlock information through conversational means.
Reasoning is going to make AI solve problems at a Phd level, with minimal input. That should also speed up the process to Level 3, which will allow AI to make decisions with no human intervention.
We are going to hit AGI by end of the decade, and it is going to require a lot of chips and energy.
Level 1: Chatbots, AI with conversational language
Level 2: Reasoners, human-level problem solving
Level 3: Agents, systems that can take actions
Level 4: Innovators, AI that can aid in invention
Level 5: Organizations, AI that can do the work of an organization
Reasoning is going to make AI solve problems at a Phd level, with minimal input. That should also speed up the process to Level 3, which will allow AI to make decisions with no human intervention.
We are going to hit AGI by end of the decade, and it is going to require a lot of chips and energy.
Level 1: Chatbots, AI with conversational language
Level 2: Reasoners, human-level problem solving
Level 3: Agents, systems that can take actions
Level 4: Innovators, AI that can aid in invention
Level 5: Organizations, AI that can do the work of an organization
Posted on 10/25/24 at 8:41 am to DarthRebel
trading near 142 today
Posted on 10/25/24 at 10:59 am to Granola
quote:
trading near 142 today
Don't tell Norway
Posted on 10/25/24 at 1:15 pm to DarthRebel
It was over $143 this morning but looks like it’s about to give all of todays gains back
$141.40
$141.40
Posted on 10/25/24 at 1:37 pm to Double Oh
Still up 2.79% from last Friday. Norway was just being a dolt, look it dropped 3%, AI is dead
Go ahead and DV this Norway
Go ahead and DV this Norway
Posted on 10/25/24 at 1:50 pm to DarthRebel
quote:
trading near 142 today
Don't tell Norway
Up a dollar today.
Only 568 points to go to get to 5x
And only 858 points to go for it to 7x to $1000 for you $1000 price target predictors.
There will be many stocks that go 7x over the next 5 years, but a company with $3.5 Trillion Market Cap isn't one of them.
So in your illogical Fantasy World what does NVDA do after it goes 7X over the next 5 years?
Go another 7x over the following 5 years resulting in a $150 Trillion Market Cap ?
Heck, in 20 years it will probably have a Market Cap greater than all of the Dollars in existence because math & logic don't apply to NVDA.
This post was edited on 10/25/24 at 2:11 pm
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