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Posted on 3/24/21 at 10:24 am to Chucktown_Badger
That I can agree with. The fundamentals and news don't seem to matter much with this stock. That's been my point all along. I'm certainly not in the hold everything bucket. I've sold some here, bought some here, rinse repeat, and I will probably hang onto some for the long haul.
Posted on 3/24/21 at 10:35 am to DRock88
quote:
I will probably hang onto some for the long haul.
This is the biggest question for me in this thread? Why hold for the long haul? I can see the thesis for a "short squeeze", which I believe has been played out.
Other than that the company is almost at peak valuation... when earning potential is at it's lowest.
You are buying and hoping that AMC returns not only to pre-covid levels, but way past that? Do you think AMC converts to another type of business? Online streaming? Do you think they go and start opening more theaters after this?
Posted on 3/24/21 at 10:54 am to UltimaParadox
Disney announcing plans to release their new movies to Disney+ at the same time as releasing to theaters, with others likely to follow that trend, will certainly not help things.
Posted on 3/24/21 at 10:55 am to UltimaParadox
I'm trying not to overthink that aspect of it yet. I guess long haul in a sense that I'm not just hanging on for a squeeze. Once theaters re-open fully, I think you'll see a move away from such widespread streaming usage and back to the theater setting. How long that will keep the value up, I don't know. It's really a wild card as far as how consumers are going to behave in the longer term - I think it's a pretty safe bet in the short term. And, whether or not it will continue to grow, be it with a better experience, acquisition, pivot, expansion, etc...I don't know either. Again, I'm just keeping some. I had exit strategies and I still have them for most of what I have left.
Also, I'm in a somewhat unique situation in that I had alot of this stock from the very beginning of lockdown. So, I can afford to hang on.
Also, I'm in a somewhat unique situation in that I had alot of this stock from the very beginning of lockdown. So, I can afford to hang on.
This post was edited on 3/24/21 at 10:59 am
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:04 am to CajunTiger78
As with any stock, speculation is part of the process based on the information at hand. I follow AMC extremely close, and the information I have gathered has led me to believe that a squeeze is inevitable. If it does not ever happen, it is still a very good COVID play. With COVID on the decline, and people clamoring to get out and spend their money on things they've been denied for a year, AMC is undervalued, IMO. At this point, cold hard facts are hard to come by, in regards to the true actual short position, but there are tons of logical clues of why they exist in huge numbers and have not yet covered.
The naysayers can post whatever they think, for whatever reason, but for myself, I like the stock, and with just shy of 10000 shares, I have a considerable stake in what I believe. In fact, I purchased more this morning. I am not advising anyone. Simply posting what I have done, and why.
Here is something to ponder. And before you poo-poo this, do the math yourself:
LINK
The naysayers can post whatever they think, for whatever reason, but for myself, I like the stock, and with just shy of 10000 shares, I have a considerable stake in what I believe. In fact, I purchased more this morning. I am not advising anyone. Simply posting what I have done, and why.
Here is something to ponder. And before you poo-poo this, do the math yourself:
LINK
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:06 am to DRock88
quote:It has already be reported that the studio shot down releasing Top Gun 2 to streaming. Blockbusters need theaters.
I'm trying not to overthink that aspect of it yet. I guess long haul in a sense that I'm not just hanging on for a squeeze. Once theaters re-open fully, I think you'll see a move away from such widespread streaming usage and back to the theater setting.
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:12 am to UltimaParadox
quote:Largest theater chain in North America and Europe. Kids love to go to the movies. Parents love to drop off kids at the movies, to get some quiet time. Tons of dates involve going to dinner and a movie. Amazon buyout rumors keep popping up. China just reported record ticket sales AT 50% CAPACITY!
This is the biggest question for me in this thread? Why hold for the long haul? I can see the thesis for a "short squeeze", which I believe has been played out.
Other than that the company is almost at peak valuation... when earning potential is at it's lowest.
You are buying and hoping that AMC returns not only to pre-covid levels, but way past that? Do you think AMC converts to another type of business? Online streaming? Do you think they go and start opening more theaters after this?
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:19 am to DRock88
quote:Agreed. Think about Marvel. Yes, they are releasing directly to Disney+, but does anyone really think they would have done that with Endgame? It's a strategy. Series like The Mandalorian, Wandavision, etc create a buzz and appeal, then out comes the big new Star Wars/Avenger movie that is not streaming. Create the hunger, then provide the meal at only one place, and watch people line up.
I'm trying not to overthink that aspect of it yet. I guess long haul in a sense that I'm not just hanging on for a squeeze. Once theaters re-open fully, I think you'll see a move away from such widespread streaming usage and back to the theater setting. How long that will keep the value up, I don't know. It's really a wild card as far as how consumers are going to behave in the longer term - I think it's a pretty safe bet in the short term. And, whether or not it will continue to grow, be it with a better experience, acquisition, pivot, expansion, etc...I don't know either. Again, I'm just keeping some. I had exit strategies and I still have them for most of what I have left.
Also, I'm in a somewhat unique situation in that I had alot of this stock from the very beginning of lockdown. So, I can afford to hang on.
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:36 am to greygoose
quote:
With COVID on the decline, and people clamoring to get out and spend their money on things they've been denied for a year, AMC is undervalued, IMO
The market cap of AMC is already double of what it was at the beginning of 2019. The market has already priced in full return to pre-covid business and performance beyond that.
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:38 am to greygoose
quote:
As with any stock, speculation is part of the process based on the information at hand. I follow AMC extremely close, and the information I have gathered has led me to believe that a squeeze is inevitable.
AMC has made a ton of shares available due to converted debt obligations. That has diluted the short percentage to ~20% of float as of the end of February. AMC did move up 75% from that last official count, so who’s to say the squeeze hasn’t already come and gone?
quote:
The naysayers can post whatever they think, for whatever reason, but for myself, I like the stock, and with just shy of 10000 shares, I have a considerable stake in what I believe.
To have $100k in an individual stock is a massive bet for the majority of individual investors. I hope you’re right, for your sake, but I’d strongly suggest you find more fair and balanced research going forward. Many of the resources you’ve brought to this thread have taken kernels of truth and spun them into absurd conclusions. Regardless, I hope you make millions. Seriously.
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:45 am to greygoose
quote:
but does anyone really think they would have done that with Endgame?
Yes, because that’s where the industry is headed. HBO has been releasing mega blockbusters straight to streaming. Netflix’s business model kind of seems to work.
If you think Disney+ subscribers won’t drive the stock price more than AMC ticket sales, you’re not looking at the market objectively.
Posted on 3/24/21 at 11:58 am to CollegeFBRules
I would also suggest that people stop thinking that every stock can just be magically manipulated to squeeze shortsellers. GME was an incredibly rare situation, which lent itself perfectly to a squeeze, and it kinda happened on AMC around the same time. AMC is not in a short squeeze situation.
Also, buying a shitty stock in the hopes it gets short squeezed at some point is a suspect investing strategy. My opinion of course, you're free to do whatever you like with your money.
Also, buying a shitty stock in the hopes it gets short squeezed at some point is a suspect investing strategy. My opinion of course, you're free to do whatever you like with your money.
This post was edited on 3/24/21 at 12:00 pm
Posted on 3/24/21 at 12:41 pm to slackster
quote:Wanda converted their Class B shares. Have they sold? Institutions have bought millions since the 1st of the year. There is a proxy vote now, to authorize the creation of more shares. Some say, this is a strategic move to get a full count of outstanding shares, and expose the naked shorts and synthetic shares. There is tons of evidence for this. Also, the vote to create shares, just gives the board the ability to do so in the future, for capital needs. Keep in mind, the board's compensation is heavily stock related. It would be very dumb to take stock as compensation, then immediately devalue it thru dilution.
AMC has made a ton of shares available due to converted debt obligations. That has diluted the short percentage to ~20% of float as of the end of February. AMC did move up 75% from that last official count, so who’s to say the squeeze hasn’t already come and gone?
Just some things to keep in mind.
Posted on 3/24/21 at 12:44 pm to CollegeFBRules
quote:LOL! Streaming is here to stay, but don't think for a second that the studios would rather you pay $10/month for a subscription, rather than $10/ticket. Big movies cost big bucks. They can recoup their investment in a weekend, thru theaters. Not so quickly thru streaming.
Yes, because that’s where the industry is headed. HBO has been releasing mega blockbusters straight to streaming. Netflix’s business model kind of seems to work.
If you think Disney+ subscribers won’t drive the stock price more than AMC ticket sales, you’re not looking at the market objectively.
Posted on 3/24/21 at 12:51 pm to greygoose
quote:
There is a proxy vote now, to authorize the creation of more shares.
As an investor this would be a HUGE red flag for me.
quote:
It would be very dumb to take stock as compensation, then immediately devalue it thru dilution.
Not if it's a move they need to make to keep the doors open.
Posted on 3/24/21 at 12:54 pm to greygoose
quote:
but don't think for a second that the studios would rather you pay $10/month for a subscription, rather than $10/ticket. Big movies cost big bucks. They can recoup their investment in a weekend, thru theaters. Not so quickly thru streaming.
It remains to be seen just how much this affects things and how many others follow (I would predict all the major players), but any uptake affects the bottom line of the theaters. This is another major channel to access new movies immediately following release vs only having the theater route in the past. One more thing that would make me very nervous as an investor.
This post was edited on 3/24/21 at 12:55 pm
Posted on 3/24/21 at 12:58 pm to greygoose
quote:
LOL! Streaming is here to stay, but don't think for a second that the studios would rather you pay $10/month for a subscription, rather than $10/ticket. Big movies cost big bucks. They can recoup their investment in a weekend, thru theaters. Not so quickly thru streaming.
And families with kids realize streaming a movie from home on their 80” HD and surround sound without having to get on the road and buy overpriced concessions is a pretty good deal also.
The reality here is that you’re way overshooting people returning to theaters. I hope you guys make a ton of money on AMC, but you’re having to project the most silver of linings to turn the profits you’re hoping to turn.
Expect in the middle between you and I, and that’s probably reality,
Posted on 3/24/21 at 1:01 pm to Chucktown_Badger
quote:
As an investor this would be a HUGE red flag for me.
quote:
I see that you didn't address my statement concerning synthetic shares. AMC was under a HUGE short attack, and still is. How else do you expose it without an official share count?
Posted on 3/24/21 at 1:05 pm to CollegeFBRules
quote:The extra cost is worth every penny to parents that want to have a nice dinner out. The kids want out of the house just as much as the adults. Hell, the last time I went to the movies, it was over run with kids. Matinees are huge for little kids, also.
And families with kids realize streaming a movie from home on their 80” HD and surround sound without having to get on the road and buy overpriced concessions is a pretty good deal also.
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