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FORW v Humbl DD and valuation/arbitrage?
Posted on 3/5/21 at 6:32 am
Posted on 3/5/21 at 6:32 am
As of the market close 3/4/21, FORW market cap is $233.8MM. However, according to this tweet from the FORW CEO George Sharp, the value of their Humbl warrants, pre-split, are:
$.19 (market price of Humbl on 1/13/21) - $.159 (profit/“in the black”) = $.031 (presumed cost of FORW warrants per share)
This was pre-split, so with the reverse split, FORW’s 125MM warrants are at a cost of $.124/shr. Assuming the CEO of FORW knows what he’s talking about, the profit from those warrants are now 125,000,000 x (market price of Humbl - cost per Humbl warrant), or 125,000,000 x ($3.15 - $.124) = $378.3MM. That doesn’t even consider the what Sharp said about every Humbl $.01 increase being a $.0113 increase for FORW.
However, FORW only has a current market cap of $233.4MM = 440,324,326 shares outstanding x $.53/share price. Why? They can’t possibly have $145MM in debt - 3 months ago they weren’t worth more than $30MM as an entire company.
FORW’s press release a couple months ago scheduled a Zoom call for their shareholder update and annual financial report on 1/12/21. On 1/4/21 they rescheduled the annual report and Zoom calm for 2/16/21. However, as part of a share offering and shareholder dilution on 2/09/21, Mr Sharp announced the Zoom meeting and annual report would be delayed again to 3/05/21. Mr Sharp commented:
Unfortunately, Mr Sharp delayed the shareholder update meeting and financial report again yesterday. The meeting is now scheduled for 3/11/21. Interested persons can register by clicking on this “humble” image:
Seriously, that image was take directly off the FORW website and should work. Mr Sharp also took his Twitter private around the time he changed the date of the update/meeting once again.
So, the question is why does FORW continue to trade at such a significant discount to the presumed profit of their Humbl warrants? There is simply no way a company like FORW, whose corporate address of 1022 Nevada Hwy, Boulder Cit, NV takes you to this PostNet solution:
could have anywhere near the debt necessary to drag on its market cap so much. Even if you consider it’s corporate history:
Their most recent financials don’t suggest they have anywhere close to the debt necessary to explain the market cap gap vs the warrant values.
So, can money be made on the illogical gap between FORW and Humbl? Should FORW really be trading for 62% higher, should TSNPD (Humbl) be trading for 62% lower, or somewhere in between?
$.19 (market price of Humbl on 1/13/21) - $.159 (profit/“in the black”) = $.031 (presumed cost of FORW warrants per share)
This was pre-split, so with the reverse split, FORW’s 125MM warrants are at a cost of $.124/shr. Assuming the CEO of FORW knows what he’s talking about, the profit from those warrants are now 125,000,000 x (market price of Humbl - cost per Humbl warrant), or 125,000,000 x ($3.15 - $.124) = $378.3MM. That doesn’t even consider the what Sharp said about every Humbl $.01 increase being a $.0113 increase for FORW.
However, FORW only has a current market cap of $233.4MM = 440,324,326 shares outstanding x $.53/share price. Why? They can’t possibly have $145MM in debt - 3 months ago they weren’t worth more than $30MM as an entire company.
FORW’s press release a couple months ago scheduled a Zoom call for their shareholder update and annual financial report on 1/12/21. On 1/4/21 they rescheduled the annual report and Zoom calm for 2/16/21. However, as part of a share offering and shareholder dilution on 2/09/21, Mr Sharp announced the Zoom meeting and annual report would be delayed again to 3/05/21. Mr Sharp commented:
quote:
Mr. Sharp commented, “While I realize that some will be disappointed in this postponement of the shareholder call, the Board of Directors determined that delaying it was prudent in light of some ongoing developments. I am sure that the shareholders will appreciate the need for the delay once the discussion takes place. I don’t anticipate that there will be any further postponements.”
Unfortunately, Mr Sharp delayed the shareholder update meeting and financial report again yesterday. The meeting is now scheduled for 3/11/21. Interested persons can register by clicking on this “humble” image:
Seriously, that image was take directly off the FORW website and should work. Mr Sharp also took his Twitter private around the time he changed the date of the update/meeting once again.
So, the question is why does FORW continue to trade at such a significant discount to the presumed profit of their Humbl warrants? There is simply no way a company like FORW, whose corporate address of 1022 Nevada Hwy, Boulder Cit, NV takes you to this PostNet solution:
could have anywhere near the debt necessary to drag on its market cap so much. Even if you consider it’s corporate history:
quote:
Formerly known as: Guard Dog, Inc. until 1-2020
FSBO Media Holdings, Inc. until 9-2008 Discover Capital Holdings Corp. until 11-2005 Sunlite Technologies Corp. until 11-2001 Hospitality Concepts, Inc. to 1-1990
Their most recent financials don’t suggest they have anywhere close to the debt necessary to explain the market cap gap vs the warrant values.
So, can money be made on the illogical gap between FORW and Humbl? Should FORW really be trading for 62% higher, should TSNPD (Humbl) be trading for 62% lower, or somewhere in between?
Posted on 3/5/21 at 6:46 am to slackster
FORW got crushed yesterday. I dumped my shares of that on the last big pop. It Made me way more than TSNP on that huge runup but it doesn’t track correctly in either direction. Been in and out a few times. Overall I put about 57% more in my pocket than TSNP but since the reverse split it only goes up at 1/3 and drops by 1/2.
This post was edited on 3/5/21 at 6:52 am
Posted on 3/5/21 at 6:51 am to SkinnyTestaverde
quote:
FORW got crushed yesterday. I dumped my shares of that on the last big pop. Made me way more than TSNP but it doesn’t track correctly in either direction
I wouldn’t expect it to in the short term just given the high volatility, but I think I’d add to FORW over Humbl if I was a longer term believer.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 6:54 am to slackster
I would agree but nothing about this market is logical right now and the volitiity of TSNP makes FORW even worse
Posted on 3/5/21 at 6:58 am to slackster
This whole thing is pretty fascinating to watch play out. It seems like George Sharp will either end up in handcuffs or on a dais next to Elon Musk as a couple of giant tech CEOs. The canyon of possibilities between those extremes seems less likely than one of those two things occurring.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 7:27 am to slackster
Good DD!!! I can still see George on Twitter. He just had a tweet less than an hour ago?
Posted on 3/5/21 at 7:31 am to raineysky
quote:
I can still see George on Twitter. He just had a tweet less than an hour ago?
Only available to confirmed followers.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 7:37 am to slackster
Are those warrants currently redeemable or is there a specific redemption date?
Posted on 3/5/21 at 7:55 am to TheChosenOne
quote:
Are those warrants currently redeemable or is there a specific redemption date?
Press release doesn’t seem to indicate any lock up period. They can be exercised for up to 2 years from the purchase date, which was 4Q2020
Posted on 3/5/21 at 7:58 am to slackster
Out of curiosity, do you have any DD on stocks you recommend? You only seem to love negativity. I’d like to know your positive thoughts on stocks or funds if you have any.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 8:08 am to go ta hell ole miss
quote:
Out of curiosity, do you have any DD on stocks you recommend? You only seem to love negativity. I’d like to know your positive thoughts on stocks or funds if you have any.
I’ve said BA looks attractive vs airlines. If airlines are priced properly, you’d expect BA to rally soon.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 8:50 am to slackster
Dude, this isn’t healthy. I’m concerned about your mental stability and this stock.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 9:02 am to NaturalBeam
quote:
Dude, this isn’t healthy. I’m concerned about your mental stability and this stock.
Why? It’s legitimate research and information.
This post was edited on 3/5/21 at 9:02 am
Posted on 3/5/21 at 10:18 am to slackster
Well, I had to dump the FORW I bought yesterday. Lost 7 cents. I HATE to lose fcking money!
Posted on 3/5/21 at 10:47 am to slackster
quote:
I’ve said BA looks attractive vs airlines. If airlines are priced properly, you’d expect BA to rally soon.
Are airlines priced properly?
Posted on 3/5/21 at 11:19 am to slackster
quote:
If airlines are priced properly,
Why are all your statements dotted with 'ifs'? You simply dont know shite. You and a few others are on;y set on destroying AT for some bizarre reason. Stop this shite. Its disturbing behavior
Posted on 3/5/21 at 11:22 am to slackster
quote:
Why? It’s legitimate research and information.
In a normal world, yes.
Of course in reality you are doing this trying to win an Internet argument and would rather be right than other people making money.
This is not your battle, yet here you are fighting. That is the unhealthy part. Go outside and get some fresh air.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 11:32 am to DarthRebel
quote:This. You’ve spent hours arguing about a stock that you seemingly don’t care about, and now this comprehensive post. You say it’s for DD and that any stock could be a buy, but you’ve clearly already done your DD and determined it’s not a buy, so why won’t you let this go?
In a normal world, yes.
Of course in reality you are doing this trying to win an Internet argument and would rather be right than other people making money.
This is not your battle, yet here you are fighting. That is the unhealthy part. Go outside and get some fresh air.
You are obsessing over these 2 stocks because you got in an internet fight with a random internet posted named AncientTiger and it’s clearly eating at you until you somehow prove you are right. Well AT isn’t here anymore. You aren’t buying this stock right now. And those who did have already done so. So frankly it just comes across as a little obsessive that you’re still so concerned about this.
Posted on 3/5/21 at 1:11 pm to RobbBobb
quote:
Why are all your statements dotted with 'ifs'? You simply dont know shite. You and a few others are on;y set on destroying AT for some bizarre reason. Stop this shite. Its disturbing behavior
You realize this is a thread where I’ve laid out a potential bull case for FORW, one of AT’s picks, right?
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