re: For all those poorly misguided do-it-yourselfers

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wampawampa

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Whose alter are you? Since the first of the year, it seems like the OT's/Rant's stupidity has been migrating over here. Albeit stupidity on a more intelligent level.

You summarized most of the disagreements on this board into one argument, and that doesn't work. I think the only one you left out was the keep/shitcan MTM argument.

First off, there is a hung amount of diversity under the "do-it-yourself" umbrella. I do it myself, and have been 100% buy and hold. Not as a dogma, but because I never convince myself to sell out and wait for the market to crash, even though I follow the market and economy closely.

On the other side are day traders, and I see none of them on this board. Most are in the middle. These people do swing in and out over time, but most, I believe do this with just a portion of their savings. I may be wrong on this.

Indexing vs. active-managed funds:

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...but we’ll take our fees off the top so it never really has the return of the index..

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FWIW, a few years ago, my Vanguard TSMP fund beat the Wilshire 5000 by almost a point, after fees. The reason, they told me, was they don't own stock in all 5000 companies, but allocate based on the market segments represented by the Wilshire 5000. Some times they get it wrong and do better than the underlying index. Sometimes not.

I don't have the exact number handy, but I believe a fund that performs better than average one year has a 50/50 chance of doing better than average the next. That creates a paradox, at least in my mind. If the pros, who study this every day, have inside connections, ect., can't consistently beat the average, how can I? I can't. So I put my money into index funds, and leave it there. My timing and active-management activities are limited to choosing the times I put more money in, and allocating between my two index funds when I do.

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Forget the fact that we do this every single day, and can practically back up what we say thru real life experiences, you guys have read a few books and blogs and have really cool theories.

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What are your and wamp's educational credentials? Other than a series 7?

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Without commenting on the possible veracity of the statement, if someone's really done that in this market, why would you say such a thing and, I suppose, why would it even matter if he couldn't "sustain" it? He's obviously done something right, regardless. Or, do you assume it was just blind luck, if true?

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Your right, I should give credit where it is due. If true then thats a heck of a year by any standard. He implies by the statement that this is something he expects to do on a regular basis. I dont think he can, and yes I think a large part was due to luck. I have yet seen anything from him that would demonstrate the ability to do it by skill.

No doubt a heck of a year tho, If he was able to correctly measure the market trends a year and half ago, I hope he can do the same now, and get back in the market with his cash.

Of course I don't expect 200% a year. My brother was more confident in my advice than I was, which is why he was up 500% instead of 200%. But I DO expect to be able to trounce the market "over the long term".

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What are your and wamp's educational credentials? Other than a series 7?

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like the majority of professions , residents of the finance industry want to create building blocks on new entrants to that profession. Its called job security.

The fact is that outside a few specialized services (medical), a smart person can do just about anything for themselves.

I can see how you think I am saying my ability to pick is superior to COL's. Not so, in fact he may be better at picking than any of us. What you need to remember is asset allocation is the most important thing. Harry Markowitz in the 50's got a Nobel Prize ( back when you actually used math and science not some BS like Al Gore's the earth has flu)for that research. In a nutshell 94% of return is dicatate on allocation. 4% was attributed to the acutal security selection within each sector (ie whether or not you bought Shell or Exxon stock) and the remaing 2% was derived through timing and other gee golly things. What I am saying is having someone map your future goals, risk tolerances, and sticking with the strategy through the tuff times is worth more than trying to drive return through timing....

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My brother was more confident in my advice than I was, which is why he was up 500% instead of 200%.

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Or maybe I am just a better trader?

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like the majority of professions , residents of the finance industry want to create building blocks on new entrants to that profession. Its called job security.

The fact is that outside a few specialized services (medical), a smart person can do just about anything for themselves.

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Oh I know. I was waiting for him to toss out a bunch of worthless (take computer based course, pay $200) certifications. As opposed to one that acutally means something and takes ball busting work and some intelligence to get.

One of the college students here, and I must admit that amsterdam and wampawhatever have some gall to try and impose their will on this board. However this isnt the rant or ot, most here actually know wtf their talking about. I have read some of dam and wamp's posts and realize why people do not trust the finance types (personal advisors), they enforce ideas that they have not wholly understood. I see their flaws and if I, the unexperienced can see this, well don't try to call out col, mh, jt, and the others, or you will be criticized as deservedly so.

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As opposed to the wealth of expertise and success you have demonstrated!

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Believe me I would love to post something more specific. Cant. Our industry wont allow it.

Also, wampa takes a little to much credit for my arguments. He didnt even know I was on this board until 2 days ago.

Also you seem to always have some kind of canned negative response to anything said by the dark side, What exactly do you do again?

I know what Jersey does for a living, I know others in the profession very well. That doesnt impress me. There are good hedge fund guys and bad.