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Energy stocks taking a beating in premarket

Posted on 3/23/21 at 7:10 am
Posted by Vols&Shaft83
Throbbing Member
Member since Dec 2012
69908 posts
Posted on 3/23/21 at 7:10 am
Specifically the Upstream oil giants like XOM, RDS.A, BP, and CVX.

Midstream like ET, MMG, MPLX, and EPD are getting hit, but not as hard.

Couldn't find any news that would scare investors away. It could be a sector correction, and a buying opportunity. Personally I'd wait a couple days before pouncing, because oil dips are typically pretty deep, and we're still way up YTD.

My experience in energy stocks is that they are not for the timid, and even the blue chip whales can behave like small caps from time to time. The swings can make even the seasoned investors throw up.

But long term, they hold value and pay fat dividends even in volatile markets.

Lettuce monitor this situation

Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84871 posts
Posted on 3/23/21 at 7:14 am to
quote:

But long term, they hold value and pay fat dividends even in volatile markets.


Until they don’t.

Still like CVX the most among the majors.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84871 posts
Posted on 3/23/21 at 7:18 am to
quote:

Couldn't find any news that would scare investors away. It could be a sector correction, and a buying opportunity. Personally I'd wait a couple days before pouncing, because oil dips are typically pretty deep, and we're still way up YTD.


Oil is down 4-5% today on European lockdowns reappearing.
Posted by Vols&Shaft83
Throbbing Member
Member since Dec 2012
69908 posts
Posted on 3/23/21 at 7:28 am to
quote:

Until they don’t.


I've never missed a dividend payment, certainly takes the sting out of a bear market


quote:

Still like CVX the most among the majors.



I do too, and so does Buffet. May swap some of my XOM for CVX. Right now I have 200+ shares XOM, vs only 30 CVX.
Posted by ragincajun03
Member since Nov 2007
21227 posts
Posted on 3/23/21 at 7:30 am to
I know...I know...it's Seeking Alpha. But still, from this morning's initial piece:

quote:

Crude oil prices continue to slide as concerns persist about a third COVID wave in mainland Europe denting demand.

WTI futures (CL1:COM) (NYSEARCA:USO) -3.5% are back below $60/barrel for the first time since the beginning of March. Brent futures (CO1:COM) -3.5% are also down sharply.

WTI is still up more than 20% year to date, but is off 10% from hits recent high of $66, technically a correction.

Germany says it is in a "new pandemic," with the British COVID strain dominant, prompting a hard lockdown over the extended Easter period and more restrictions through April 18.

“We are now basically in a new pandemic. The British mutation has become dominant,” Chancellor Angela Merkel said at a press conference on Monday night.



LINK

Not liking talks of new lockdowns and a new pandemic at all. We need both the U.S. and global economies to get back running. Can't just keep handing out "free money".
Posted by Vols&Shaft83
Throbbing Member
Member since Dec 2012
69908 posts
Posted on 3/23/21 at 7:30 am to
quote:

Oil is down 4-5% today on European lockdowns reappearing.


Ahhh, so BP and RDS could be the play. Interesting
Posted by JL
Member since Aug 2006
3040 posts
Posted on 3/23/21 at 7:43 am to
I think XOM is undervalued compared to Chevron.
Posted by Vols&Shaft83
Throbbing Member
Member since Dec 2012
69908 posts
Posted on 3/23/21 at 7:52 am to
quote:

I think XOM is undervalued compared to Chevron.




It's really a toss up, but I think both are undervalued. CVX may be the safer bet because of the Berkshire Hathaway ownership. Not that Buffet is infallible, but I've never regretted putting money in the same places he does

Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
82026 posts
Posted on 3/23/21 at 8:04 am to
You are dramatic
Posted by Vols&Shaft83
Throbbing Member
Member since Dec 2012
69908 posts
Posted on 3/23/21 at 8:08 am to
quote:

You are dramatic




Shut up
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
30571 posts
Posted on 3/23/21 at 8:58 am to
quote:

US and allies announce sanctions against Chinese officials for 'serious human rights abuses' against Uyghurs

China is the biggest foreign purchaser of oil
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
82026 posts
Posted on 3/23/21 at 9:21 am to
Oh look. Big nothingburger
Posted by xxTIMMYxx
Member since Aug 2019
17562 posts
Posted on 3/23/21 at 9:33 am to
seems like most things are. thanks biden
Posted by xxTIMMYxx
Member since Aug 2019
17562 posts
Posted on 3/23/21 at 9:38 am to
MAYBE this



Of course last time things spiked up
Posted by xxTIMMYxx
Member since Aug 2019
17562 posts
Posted on 3/23/21 at 9:41 am to
maybe if the admin would stop pumping out negative messaging to the public people wouldn't be so anxiety ridden
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84871 posts
Posted on 3/23/21 at 10:33 am to
quote:

I've never missed a dividend payment, certainly takes the sting out of a bear market


I should have been more clear - they’ll pay a dividend, it just may not be the same $3.48/shr it has been. Shell had their shot across the bow last year. Relatively speaking, the CVX dividend is more sustainable than XOM. CVX dividend is 43% of estimated 2021 FCF vs 59% for XOM.

Alternatively, XOM is trading at 90% of 2019 year end enterprise value while CVX is at 95%. You start to wonder if XOM’s outperformance of late has closed the gap to where the relative risk points to CVX being the better option going forward.
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