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re: Earnings Play - Wood Products
Posted on 7/31/20 at 8:41 am to Ron Cheramie
Posted on 7/31/20 at 8:41 am to Ron Cheramie
quote:
We keep hearing about the timber companies and how timber prices are very low right now but lumber is very high. Can someone explain this phenomenon to me?
I can give you a summary, but I don't work on the mill level so I can't give that kind of insight. Firstly, production issues seem like the main driver. Mills forecasted demand to be crippled due to covid and it's been quite the opposite. Also, when someone in the mill gets covid, production ceases for however long. I personally think there is manipulation going on as well. I've talked to suppliers who believe the mills in Canada are holding back lumber to drive the price up. Not sure how true that is.
Demand really is a huge driver. The combo of the quarantine and stimulus checks have caused the number of deck/house remodels to go way up. Our company is mostly commercial, but we have done way more deck packages this year than we ever have. People come to us saying that Lowe's and HD are out of deck boards and want to buy from us (we're just a local mom and pop). Hope that helps. There is way more depth to some of these answers but I'm lazy
1
Posted on 7/31/20 at 8:45 am to itsbigmikey
This thing seriously going to go down after those numbers?
Posted on 7/31/20 at 9:45 am to jmcwhrter
Welp... so much for that I guess 
Posted on 8/3/20 at 3:56 pm to itsbigmikey
Bluelinx (BXC) flexing after hours! Got in for 105 shares @ $9.05. I’m kicking myself because I almost pulled the trigger on another 100...
Posted on 8/4/20 at 3:34 pm to itsbigmikey
I know that this is a one man show over here but Bluelinx... 
Posted on 8/4/20 at 9:29 pm to itsbigmikey
quote:
Bluelinx...
Whats the reason for the jump? Earnings?
Posted on 8/5/20 at 5:45 am to itsbigmikey
I'm still salty about WY.. got a little time but likely gonna have options expire worthless on something that crushed earnings
Posted on 8/5/20 at 12:08 pm to jmcwhrter
quote:
I'm still salty about WY.. got a little time but likely gonna have options expire worthless on something that crushed earnings
Yeah, I was expecting more from them. I think they got most of their earnings bump in the two weeks prior to earnings release. They fed off some of the momentum from earnings beats from other lumber companies. I still think this stock should be above 30 though. I might buy some $30 calls expiring next week. This think still has a 10% spike in it. Lumber prices aren't showing any signs of cooling down.
Posted on 8/5/20 at 12:24 pm to DumpsterFire
quote:
Yeah, I was expecting more from them. I think they got most of their earnings bump in the two weeks prior to earnings release. They fed off some of the momentum from earnings beats from other lumber companies. I still think this stock should be above 30 though. I might buy some $30 calls expiring next week. This think still has a 10% spike in it. Lumber prices aren't showing any signs of cooling down.
It's getting worse, in fact. Many mills are not even quoting lumber and it made a tremendous price jump today on mid week print. This is getting out of control. We're going to get to a point where supply simply won't be able to meet demand (which is already happening with some products). Mills can't produce enough wood with the Covid restrictions, and the unemployment benefits are crippling the manpower even more. Going to be a very interesting month
Posted on 8/5/20 at 12:36 pm to jmcwhrter
well holding options through earnings is always a gamble
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