re: Earnings are looking strong for a lot of companies

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That said, it’s amazing how so many on the PoliBoard seem to pretty much be wishcasting for a recession.

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There are definitely those wishcasting it just as there were liberals wishcasting the US economy to fail under Trump just "because Trump".

However, this environment is objectively signaling recession. One of the big predictors of an oncoming recession is the inverted yield curve (2yr treasuries being higher than 10yr) and we're currently in one of the longest periods of inversion on record (and will likely be the longest as other periods where it's lasted this long were already moving back to their normal positions with the 10yr being higher than the 2yr, but in this one the 2yr is still running strong).

The 10yr yield, you can edit the graph to add the 2yr.

Along with that, JP & Co have stated numerous times that one of the big factors they are waiting for before pivoting (and perhaps even pausing) is for Unemployment to start going up. Unemployment has remained flat. Prior to the last rate hike the thinking was we would likely see a pause for May, but now it's trending towards another .25 increase (with a pause possible for June).

With consumers having continued to maintain lifestyles on credit cards (whose rates are rising while wages fall further behind continued rising inflation), when Unemployment starts rising it's quite probable we'll see consumers fall harder and faster than in previous recessions because of (what I believe is) this credit bubble.

Also, pretty much every financial institution is pegging a recession for Q3 or Q4 of this year.

We've already seen job numbers in the critical areas of retail and manufacturing beginning to fall while non-critical jobs in leisure and government have increased.

As a footnote, the decrease in oil production by OPEC going into the summer is already helping to drive pump prices higher ( LINK)

Because of all this we should see the economy retract as Unemployment increases through the year.

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I Love Bama is probably in a corner melting somewhere.

May need to send a welfare checkup to his house.

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LOL

Nope. I'm a data guy and still believe we are in for a world of hurt.

1. The Federal Reserves own probability model is now forecasting the highest probability for a recession since 1982

2. Earning are higher in the short term because people are using debt for everything. They can afford nothing. 1 in 5 people are now using "buy now, pay later" options for GROCERIES!

3. Money supply is shrinking at the fastest pace since the great depression.



I can't time the market. I can review data and see the slow motion train wreck.