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re: Dow is down over 300 Points

Posted on 11/7/12 at 10:19 pm to
Posted by saving$
Member since Nov 2012
34 posts
Posted on 11/7/12 at 10:19 pm to
quote:

What's the best way to prepare for the "fiscal cliff"? I just don't see compromise happening.



Pick a stock/bond asset allocation you feel comfortable with and stay the course.
Posted by LSUTOM07
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2011
765 posts
Posted on 11/7/12 at 10:29 pm to
quote:

Pick a stock/bond asset allocation you feel comfortable with and stay the course.


The question is when to jump in
Posted by saving$
Member since Nov 2012
34 posts
Posted on 11/7/12 at 10:32 pm to
quote:

The question is when to jump in



Ah yes, I don't believe in market timing. Can't help you there. Good luck!
Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets
Middle of a layover
Member since Nov 2010
5593 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 7:28 am to
quote:

Ah yes, I don't believe in market timing. Can't help you there. Good luck!

I'm a huge lover of technicals, and even I full heartedly agree with this.

Market timing is a myth that exists from hindsight.
Posted by LSUTOM07
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2011
765 posts
Posted on 11/8/12 at 6:14 pm to
quote:

Ah yes, I don't believe in market timing. Can't help you there. Good luck!


Maybe I used a bad choice of words but I didn't mean trying to time the market.

It would be detrimental to make big investments in stocks, even with excellent numbers and fundamentals, if the fiscal cliff triggers a recession similar to the one in 08.

So for me, the question is when to jump in. (Before we reach the fiscal cliff, or after decisions are made and wait to see how the market reacts.)

Posted by Tigah in the ATL
Atlanta
Member since Feb 2005
27539 posts
Posted on 11/9/12 at 12:34 am to
doesn't say too much about the efficient market theory.
Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets
Middle of a layover
Member since Nov 2010
5593 posts
Posted on 11/9/12 at 7:43 am to
quote:

efficient market theory

I'm not sure what the bigger waste of time teaching in academia is, the efficient market hypothesis or the capital asset pricing model.

Both of these are absolute jokes at this point in time. Academia really needs to stop teaching finance in a static manner, correlations and relationships change all the time and models only work for a period of time. The ONLY relationships that will hold true are the inverse relationship between prices and yields, and that prices are determined by supply and demand. Everything past that can be broken at any time.
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 11/9/12 at 8:48 am to
quote:


I'm not sure what the bigger waste of time teaching in academia is, the efficient market hypothesis or the capital asset pricing model.

Both of these are absolute jokes at this point in time. Academia really needs to stop teaching finance in a static manner, correlations and relationships change all the time and models only work for a period of time. The ONLY relationships that will hold true are the inverse relationship between prices and yields, and that prices are determined by supply and demand. Everything past that can be broken at any time.


That law is broken all the time.

Hooray free shite from the government.

Posted by BennyAndTheInkJets
Middle of a layover
Member since Nov 2010
5593 posts
Posted on 11/9/12 at 1:10 pm to
Wouldn't they still fall in the demand category?
Posted by TheHiddenFlask
The Welsh red light district
Member since Jul 2008
18384 posts
Posted on 11/9/12 at 1:37 pm to
Supply is fixed
Demand is completely elastic at the price point
Price is zero

Not sure if that counts as working or not. I think demand is being driven by the price in that scenario. The market clearing price is certainly above 0.
Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
27816 posts
Posted on 12/17/12 at 7:42 am to
quote:

I'll take a friendly wager that it is back to Tuesday's close in less than 30 days.


I was off by a few days.
Posted by foshizzle
Washington DC metro
Member since Mar 2008
40599 posts
Posted on 12/17/12 at 8:35 am to
Bumping a thread with the title "down over 300 points" deserves a great big
Posted by Athanatos
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
8141 posts
Posted on 12/17/12 at 8:40 am to
Yeah, giving me a heart attack 9 minutes into he session.
Posted by BACONisMEATcandy
Member since Dec 2007
46643 posts
Posted on 12/17/12 at 8:50 am to
Posted by C
Houston
Member since Dec 2007
27816 posts
Posted on 12/17/12 at 8:56 am to
quote:


Bumping a thread with the title "down over 300 points" deserves a great big


Yeah sorry about that. For whatever reason I thought of that "bet" i made and wanted to follow up. Maybe the OP can change the title or an admin can intervene. Sorry...
Posted by foshizzle
Washington DC metro
Member since Mar 2008
40599 posts
Posted on 12/17/12 at 9:37 am to


Don't worry, but for a second there I thought maybe TD was ahead of the major news services again.
Posted by dunkelman
shreveport
Member since Oct 2005
1374 posts
Posted on 12/17/12 at 9:11 pm to
That law is not broken without consequences, many of which are unintended. It's a law. Like gravity. We can go up in plane and simulate weightlessness so astronauts can train. Eventually, the law self -corrects and you better be holding on to something.
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