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Message
re: CNBC Special Tonight: ‘Return of the Retail Trader’
Posted on 8/12/22 at 9:20 pm to TigerDeBaiter
Posted on 8/12/22 at 9:20 pm to TigerDeBaiter
I do find it funny how the earnings reactions have done a 360 in only a few months . Two or Three months ago if you had avg earnings with a beat on earnings/ rev but guided down the stock dropped like a rock and toke weeks or more to climb back . Now if you miss and lower guidance the stock is down a few bucks for only a few days and usually is back in no time. I still say Sept will be a down month so keeping my 10% cash if a buying opportunity presents itself.
1
Posted on 8/12/22 at 10:10 pm to TigerDeBaiter
quote:
That kind of the point. Majority were positioned one way bearish - with puts or sidelined cash. And because of that, there’s wasn’t a ton of bearish action after rate hike number 1 or the obvious recession (technical). Now that the idiots have been lulled back to sleep and jump back in, next leg down will commence. You can tell by the absolute trash that is rallying right now that it’s not real. Maybe I’m wrong, but this rally just smells like a stubborn one driven by short covering and low volume melt.
This guy knows what he is talking about.
I can’t predict when it will happen though, or else I would be island rich.
Posted on 8/12/22 at 10:36 pm to Shankopotomus
quote:
will be interesting to see because this sub-20 VIX makes very little sense to me other than general market complacency in the slowest trading season
I mean, rally or no rally volume is pathetic across the board
You answered your VIX question with your second statement.
VIX is lower because there's less hedging needed. Institutions have already repositioned and reduced their equity exposure.
To your volume point, I agree. Notice the OBV on SPY hasn't increased during this rally. Money flow is also negative in the last week. Take that info fwiw.
Also consider this rally is at a peak because while Q2 earnings were positive for the majority, as expected, 2023 earnings have been revised lower. Makes sense to keep rallying into higher valuations with lower growth prospects.
Posted on 8/13/22 at 8:06 am to FLObserver
quote:180
have done a 360
Posted on 8/13/22 at 8:15 am to castorinho
quote:
have done a 360
180
Whichever means quick turnaround. Probably should have wrote that
Posted on 8/13/22 at 9:34 am to Retrograde
Indeed he does.
It took a new bill bringing in fresh new cash along with share buybacks returning in order to turn the market back to the upside. This is exactly what turned around the Corona Crash so suddenly.
Liquidity has been one of the biggest issues for a very long time. More and more debt HAS to be created faster and faster or the whole system begins to seize up. This is why billions have now quickly turned to trillions. Overnight repo is now in the trillions. Debt vortexes have unlimited appetites for fresh new cash. Think large margin calls as well as ponzi schemes.
This is exactly why the excuses to “print” become ever larger and more outrageous.
It took a new bill bringing in fresh new cash along with share buybacks returning in order to turn the market back to the upside. This is exactly what turned around the Corona Crash so suddenly.
Liquidity has been one of the biggest issues for a very long time. More and more debt HAS to be created faster and faster or the whole system begins to seize up. This is why billions have now quickly turned to trillions. Overnight repo is now in the trillions. Debt vortexes have unlimited appetites for fresh new cash. Think large margin calls as well as ponzi schemes.
This is exactly why the excuses to “print” become ever larger and more outrageous.
Posted on 8/16/22 at 10:27 am to Hussss
quote:
Well next week is Op Ex so we should see some wild swings come back.
Still trying to figure out why nobody believed this. Op Ex week is ALWAYS volatile.
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