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CNBC Bond guy said great time to buy into mortgage pools
Posted on 3/20/23 at 9:44 pm
Posted on 3/20/23 at 9:44 pm
Thesis - pools are below par and early playoffs now get you better YTM. There are always early playoffs.
Also noted if recession does hit interest rates will go down and playoffs will accelerate
Anybody have experience buying mortgage tyoe bonds?
Also noted if recession does hit interest rates will go down and playoffs will accelerate
Anybody have experience buying mortgage tyoe bonds?
3
Posted on 3/20/23 at 10:07 pm to thelawnwranglers
Saw the same clip.
It is an interesting call, but not necessarily a good route for someone looking for predictable and/or longer term income. Probably a good risk reward play though.
It is an interesting call, but not necessarily a good route for someone looking for predictable and/or longer term income. Probably a good risk reward play though.
Posted on 3/21/23 at 6:07 am to slackster
quote:
Saw the same clip.
It is an interesting call, but not necessarily a good route for someone looking for predictable and/or longer term income. Probably a good risk reward play though.
At 40 seems look good place for some my fixed income if I can do in 25k or less increment to hedge risk
I guess st that low level is it even worth it
Posted on 3/21/23 at 6:13 am to thelawnwranglers
quote:
playoffs will accelerate
quote:
There are always early playoffs.
quote:
early playoffs
Are you sure he wasn’t talking about March Madness??
Posted on 3/21/23 at 6:22 am to thelawnwranglers
MBB is one way to play it and take some of the individual MBS risk off the table. Current portfolio has a 4.4% YTM and a duration of 6.5 years.
You can also just buy a brokered CD with a 4.9% coupon/YTW for 5 years.
You can also just buy a brokered CD with a 4.9% coupon/YTW for 5 years.
Posted on 3/21/23 at 6:47 am to LSURussian
Don't make fun of my dyslexia or auto correct not sure what to blame
I am not going to take responsibility though
This post was edited on 3/21/23 at 6:49 am
Posted on 3/21/23 at 9:08 am to LSURussian
quote:
LSURussian
is back?
Posted on 3/21/23 at 9:42 am to LSURussian
quote:Playoffs
Playoffs
Ok now you have me thinking about Jim Mora and this famous “playoff” rant
LINK
Posted on 3/21/23 at 12:17 pm to slackster
quote:Yeah. MBB is just buying agency pass-throughs. And like you said - duration is high for pretty boring YTM. (Especially when USFR is paying 4.75% with 0 duration).
MBB is one way to play it and take some of the individual MBS risk off the table. Current portfolio has a 4.4% YTM and a duration of 6.5 years.
You can also just buy a brokered CD with a 4.9% coupon/YTW for 5 years.
RMBS (residential mortgage backed securities) are, indeed, a pretty good place to find some value right now. Unfortunately, most of the good exposures are confined to those that can invest in hedge funds.
So called "legacy" bonds are a favorite trade of mine. These are 16+ year old bonds, many of which were "sub-prime" or "alt-a" when issued. It's complicated, but you can basically buy them in the high 70s/low 80s and the cash flow is massive and the pull to par is constant.
Perhaps more interesting than that even, is NEW issue RMBS (say, issued in the past year) that have traded down as low as 70 cents. The collateral is sparklingly clean.
I even saw some AAAs yielding 7%+.
It's very frustrating that there isn't a great public pure-play on this massive market.
Posted on 3/21/23 at 2:27 pm to LSURussian
quote:
LSURussian
When did you return? I've always enjoyed your posts.
Posted on 3/21/23 at 2:47 pm to VABuckeye
quote:Thanks. Didn't you hear? I died. (According to Hussss.)
When did you return? I've always enjoyed your posts.
But I got over it...
Posted on 3/21/23 at 2:49 pm to LSURussian
My poor writing skills necromanced you back
Posted on 3/21/23 at 2:51 pm to LSURussian
You stick around. Losing poodlebrain was enough.
Posted on 3/21/23 at 2:55 pm to VABuckeye
quote:Agreed. He knew his stuff when it came to answering any question about taxes.
Losing poodlebrain was enough.
Posted on 3/21/23 at 3:00 pm to thelawnwranglers
quote:If he's anything like that other CNBC guy, he doesn't know diddly poo
CNBC Bond guy said great time to buy into mortgage pools
Posted on 3/21/23 at 3:06 pm to Tiger Prawn
quote:I never watch CNBC, so I don't know who the "bond guy" is - but presumably the "other guy" is Cramer?
If he's anything like that other CNBC guy, he doesn't know diddly poo
In any event, doesn't matter what they said on CNBC - many mortgage bonds are a good buy here. An even better buy is Mortgage Servicing Rights. Again, there aren't really any good pure plays. Mr. Cooper is sort of one. But on the private side, people are going to make a killing in these. Unlevered 15%.
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