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re: Brown’s £2 billion blunder in the gold bullion market

Posted on 9/8/09 at 8:09 pm to
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 9/8/09 at 8:09 pm to

'Then you would have producers withholding output to manipulate commodity values for their own gain.'

a little walk through commodity currency world...I am making this up as I go so it will not be a perfect solution... A corn producer withholds his 1,000,000 bushels from the market...or, maybe a lot of corn farmers withhold corn from the market in an attempt to gain an economic advantage. The basket of commodities currency does not inflate or deflate because there has been neither an inflation or contraction of commodity based money or credit (for producers of other cereal grains fill the void left by corn)...or, if their is an inflation/contraction it will be short term. Consumers see that products made with corn cost more so they switch to some other cereal grain based products till corn comes down in price.

What does the consumer do when the basket of currencies goes up? The consumer sees that products that include corn have risen in price relative to other cereal grains so the consumer buys products made with wheat, rice, soy beans, barley, etc. Corn prices plunge and the corn farmers, if not bankrupt, have learned a severe lesson about withholding production from the market. The real rub in this system is that certain commodities are inelastic...like oil and natural gas (used to make fertilizer). This fact will require diversification away from the inelastic commodities...I know, easier said than done. So, we will stick with the current system till it implodes, then we might think about change.

At the futures level there must be new regulation with real teeth to protect consumers and producers of commodities from the azz hat manipulators. This can and will be done. The CFTC has already said that the oil run up to ~$150 was strictly manipulation, not shortage of oil. I posted this about a week ago. The CFTC has already announced that their new COT data will give far more transparency than in the past. Changes are coming to commodities trading and it's far past time for them. In any event, it will be very interesting to see how very large short positions can be taken against a commodity when the currency used to short is a basket of commodities.
Posted by foshizzle
Washington DC metro
Member since Mar 2008
40599 posts
Posted on 9/8/09 at 9:02 pm to
quote:

I am making this up as I go


Yes, we all knew this.
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 9/8/09 at 9:12 pm to
'Yes, we all knew this.'

...and that mumble, not even a sentence, is what you learned in school? ...and, you completed your PHD course work? I doubt that.


If you ever had an original thought it would probably cause you cardiac arrest.
Posted by foshizzle
Washington DC metro
Member since Mar 2008
40599 posts
Posted on 9/8/09 at 9:43 pm to
quote:

I said that for the individual investor, taking physical ownership of gold is not a particularly good hedge against inflation and that there are better ways to meet that goal. This has nothing at all to do with whether a currency should be backed by gold or any other commodity.

If you want to talk about a gold standard instead of what you as an individual are wise to invest in, fine. That's a legitimate topic too, just not the one we've been talking about. One is a matter of personal investment strategy, the other is a matter of national monetary policy.

I do find it ironic though that you are quoting an article by Greenspan that argues we should trust in certificates. Backed by gold, sure, but still certificates. In other posts you have said this is a *bad* thing.

So I am wondering why you cite Greenspan as an authority when he is arguing for something you explicitly disagree with.


:crickets:
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 9/9/09 at 5:13 am to

'I said that for the individual investor, taking physical ownership of gold is not a particularly good hedge against inflation and that there are better ways to meet that goal. This has nothing at all to do with whether a currency should be backed by gold or any other commodity'.

There are 80 times more paper gold than actual physical gold in the entire world. That includes both mined gold and gold that is still in the ground.

One of the current largest holders of the gold ETF (GLD) is now reported to be J.P Morgan, which is also a holder of one of the largest short gold positions on the COMEX. There was a bit of a row last year when it was revealed that the rules of the exchange would allow holders of short gold positions to make delivery good in, wait for it, the GLD ETF rather than in physical bullion.

If, as an individual you want to take possession of a GLD ETF instead of physical gold that is your perogative...not mine or anyone with half a brain. Paper is not gold. See this link for verification of Barrik/JP Morgans recent slap down in court...'Barrik Capitulates'... LINK

'If you want to talk about a gold standard instead of what you as an individual are wise to invest in, fine. That's a legitimate topic too, just not the one we've been talking about. One is a matter of personal investment strategy, the other is a matter of national monetary policy.'

I have not advocated for a gold standard although I do believe that a currency backed by a large variety of commodities would be an improvement over any fiat currency. One is real, the other can be printed, and has been, at the whim of monarcharys, empires, democracys, etc. Anything that can be printed, will be printed when times get tough...that can be seen today as the US runs $trillions in deficits...much of which is printed from thin air and backed by nothing. If you believe what the US is doing today is sustainable then, by all means, run out and buy yourself a stack of paper gold certificates.

'I do find it ironic though that you are quoting an article by Greenspan that argues we should trust in certificates. Backed by gold, sure, but still certificates. In other posts you have said this is a *bad* thing.'

At the time Greenspan made the comments you refer to the dollar was still convertable to gold/silver upon demand. Now it is not. Paper gold or ETFs today are not the same as the US Dollar of 1966. You are attempting to compare apples and oranges...again.

'So I am wondering why you cite Greenspan as an authority when he is arguing for something you explicitly disagree with.'

Again...the Greenspan essay that I often quote was penned by him in 1966. The US at that time was the worlds largest exporter, the worlds largest creditor nation, had by far the strongest economy in the world, etc. The US of today in no way compares to the US when Greenspan penned his 'Gold and Economic Freedom' essay.

Are you one of the idiots that believe that people should not change their minds if new evidence or new circumstances come to light? Do you believe that people should not change their minds no matter what happens? Would your best friend still be your best friend if you returned from work to find your best friend in the sack with your wife?

Over time, circumstances do change and anyone that does not change to allow for new circumstances has a low percentage of replication in the gene pool.

As a special favor to you and all that hate individual physical ownership of gold I am going to link to Greenspans 1966 essay every time that you declare that physical possession of gold is a 'bad idea'...So, if you want to see this link a thousand times, bring up the subject a thousand times...Only the last two paragraphs are below...remainder of essay at link at bottom.

'Gold and Economic Freedom'

'by Alan Greenspan
[written in 1966]

This article originally appeared in a newsletter: The Objectivist published in 1966 and was reprinted in Ayn Rand's Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal'

'In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.'



Posted by foshizzle
Washington DC metro
Member since Mar 2008
40599 posts
Posted on 9/9/09 at 8:02 am to
You're funny. I point out the flaws in your quoting Greenspan, and now suddenly his comments don't matter because they were written in 1966? Why did you bring him up to begin with then?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
134904 posts
Posted on 9/9/09 at 8:24 am to
quote:

I point out the flaws in your quoting Greenspan, and now suddenly his comments don't matter because they were written in 1966?
Rivers does this quite often, if you have noticed. He gets confused and starts arguing against what he previously supported. He did it a week or so ago regarding the IMF/World Bank. He forgot which organization was European controlled versus U.S. controlled and he contradicted himself within the same thread.

I think he may have a touch of Alzheimer's....
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 9/9/09 at 10:37 am to
'I think he may have a touch of Alzheimer's....'

...and I think you have far more than a touch of bull shite in everything you post.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
134904 posts
Posted on 9/9/09 at 11:01 am to
Why don't you explain how you can criticize Greenspan and then praise him IN THE SAME THREAD for doing the same thing and make it appear that you know what you are talking about? I say you can't do it.
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 9/9/09 at 11:52 am to

'Why don't you explain how you can criticize Greenspan and then praise him IN THE SAME THREAD for doing the same thing and make it appear that you know what you are talking about? I say you can't do it.'

I did not criticize him and then praise him for doing 'the same thing'... That is a lie of yours and is typical of the sort of lies that you use in attempts to win debates at any cost...even at the cost of getting to the truth...and we have been over this ground until it is pulverized. I praised him for his stance on gold as a practical solution for a currency that cannot be debased via inflation by gov and bankers. I condemned him for his much later stance (when he was head of the fed and a political pawn) for keeping interest rates too low for too long and claiming that he did not see bubbles forming in the economy because of a too loose monetary policy. Hell, I saw the bubbles in housing and oil and I am not an economist. Greenspan made a public apology before congress for his 'oversights'...his azz should be in jail. Greenspan and friends have destroyed the middle class for at least a generation and perhaps forever...and he got off with a fawning admission before congress? ...a sick joke.

When Greenspan wrote 'Gold and Economic Freedom' he was a young man with great ambition. The US was a very different country in 1966 since we were the worlds largest exporter, creditor nation, second largest oil exporter, had the largest manufacturing base by far...probably more than the remainder of the world combined...and the great advantage of coming out of WW2 with the only manufacturing capacity left undamaged...America had many advantages but they were gradually frittered away.

For Greenspan to see what would happen to the US between 1966 and 1980, or 2000, would have been an act of clarvoiance...which I don't happen to believe in. Can a mentally handicapped person like you can understand the difference between 1966 America and the America of today? If you can you will understand why Greenspan changed over those intervening years, if you cannot no amount of typing on my part will get through to you.

Greenspan wrote his 1966 essay 'Gold and Economic Freedom, to be found at this link...LINK
by Alan Greenspan
[written in 1966]

This article originally appeared in a newsletter: The Objectivist published in 1966 and was reprinted in Ayn Rand's Capitalism: The Unknown Ideal'

...last two paragraphs...

'In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.'...in 1966, to
Posted by Cold Cous Cous
Bucktown, La.
Member since Oct 2003
15365 posts
Posted on 9/9/09 at 11:54 am to
quote:

If you ever had an original thought it would probably cause you cardiac arrest.
Says the man who is most well known for cutting and pasting giant bocks of unreadable text from other websites.
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 9/9/09 at 12:03 pm to

'Says the man who is most well known for cutting and pasting giant bocks of unreadable text from other websites.'

When I see interesting thoughts I put them here for those that want to read them. If you don't like it, tough shite.

I happen to realize that there are far smarter people in the world than any that post on this board...including you. If you want to remain ignorant that is your business, do not tell me what I can and cannot post. Take it up with Chicken, last I heard he was still running this board.
Posted by coolpapaboze
Parts Unknown
Member since Dec 2006
21815 posts
Posted on 9/9/09 at 12:13 pm to
It would be helpful if you'd use the "quote" feature when you respond to someone. Your posts are sometimes hard to read because it's hard to tell what you're saying, and what you're quoting. There's a button next to the text box where you type your post labeled "quote".
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 9/9/09 at 12:20 pm to
Thank you.
Posted by foshizzle
Washington DC metro
Member since Mar 2008
40599 posts
Posted on 9/9/09 at 12:25 pm to
quote:

I think he may have a touch of Alzheimer's....


A touch of something, anway.
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 9/9/09 at 12:31 pm to

'I think he may have a touch of Alzheimer's....
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

'A touch of something, anway.'

And yet another insightful post from foshizzle...the PHD candidate that has completed all his course work...But where is his thesis? Looking at foshizzle's writing (I use the term loosely) anyone can understand that he cannot compose a single sentence, much less a thesis.

Hey, foshizzle...there is hope for you yet! Some folks will write you a thesis for remuneration! Look around campus...they are there and waiting for numbskulls to come along and pay them.

You are pathetic.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
134904 posts
Posted on 9/9/09 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

coolpapaboze

Don't waste your time. I wrote out detailed instructions for Rivers several weeks ago explaining how he could use the quote button to make his posts more understandable. His reply was rude and pathetic. Imagine that!
This post was edited on 9/9/09 at 1:18 pm
Posted by Rivers
Florida
Member since Nov 2008
3256 posts
Posted on 9/9/09 at 1:10 pm to
' His reply was rude and pathetic.'

The reply was crafted especially for you, WHOGAS.
Posted by foshizzle
Washington DC metro
Member since Mar 2008
40599 posts
Posted on 9/9/09 at 7:39 pm to
quote:

But where is his thesis?


At the Ph.D. level it's called a dissertation, not a thesis. At any rate, I was a co-author on a published article in a peer-reviewed journal but got out for reasons that Krugman cited in a recent NYT article, I just didn't believe in what I was studying. Besides, I've been out of school for a long time, at this point being a professor would involve taking a fairly substantial income cut.

At any rate I prefer more substantial discussion with people who take it more seriously than you do. Best of luck to you, when you are ready for conversation befitting an adult I'm sure I'll run into you somewhere. Until then, bottoms up ...
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
134904 posts
Posted on 9/9/09 at 7:47 pm to
quote:

At the Ph.D. level it's called a dissertation, not a thesis.
I've been waiting all day for you to correct him on that. I started to do it, but decided you would enjoy doing it even more than I would.



Is this Rivers?
This post was edited on 9/9/09 at 8:21 pm
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