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Started By
Message
re: BOIL has become predictable
Posted on 12/9/14 at 3:07 pm to Ole War Skule
Posted on 12/9/14 at 3:07 pm to Ole War Skule
quote:
The 50's are very likely going to happen. Just hope we don't see the 40's.
strongly agree
U.S. Canada production, OPEC falling apart, oil dependent economies (Russia/Venezuela etc) don't have the discipline or reserves like OPEC did to shut of supply to drive up prices, and other macro factors point to oversupply for a while
A news item just scrolled across my trading screen that Morgan Stanley is predicting the bottom for crude (Brent) will not happen until sometime in 2015 and it could fall to $43/barrel. No link, just a news scroll.
1
Posted on 12/9/14 at 4:01 pm to LSURussian
btw, I meant I strongly agreed oil would drop at least to the 50's...I wouldn't be surprised at all if it hit the 40's though
also, I assume I'm still kickin' butt in the prediction thread, could we get an update?
also, I assume I'm still kickin' butt in the prediction thread, could we get an update?
This post was edited on 12/9/14 at 4:03 pm
Posted on 12/9/14 at 4:18 pm to Ole War Skule
Why do you think WTI and Crude hit the $40's Skule? Am interested in your insight, not so concerned about what the analysts are saying. I did go long oil and sold at a decent profit. Trying to think through when to take a long term long position.
Posted on 12/9/14 at 4:35 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Why do you think WTI and Crude hit the $40's
I don't have hard data, I'm just looking at macro trends mentioned earlier. My wild a** guess is it will hit mid 50's, but drop to 40's wouldn't surprise me a bit due to:
* The big price spikes in 08 and 11 weren't due to an substantial change in demand or supply. Oil went from 40 to 140 in a very short time. Big drops always follow big spikes after exploration and production catch up.
* Big increases in commodity demand from China has been fully absorbed. Their earlier very high economic growth rates won't continue
* World becoming much more energy efficient, especially the largest consumers: U.S. and Europe.
* Large increases in U.S. and Canadian production of both oil and nat gas.
* Collapse of OPEC's pricing power.
* Venezuela and Russia can't restrict supply to raise prices and will attempt to supply even more to make up for lower prices
Again, this is all arm-chair BS from someone who is not a PE or MBA, but I think the 08 commodity price spike was completely driven by speculators, which brought much more production online and crushed demand.
changed the graph, but doesn't go to current..don't know what was wrong with the other one
on the other hand....
This post was edited on 12/9/14 at 5:11 pm
Posted on 12/9/14 at 4:41 pm to Ole War Skule
OK, thank you.
Posted on 12/9/14 at 4:47 pm to Ole War Skule
im pretty sure that oil touched 130-140 in 08...
Posted on 12/9/14 at 4:49 pm to Ole War Skule
quote:Sure, you're in 26th place....out of 31, with a 31.962% deviation from actual prices as of today.
I assume I'm still kickin' butt in the prediction thread, could we get an update?
If someone had just put their predictions to be what the actual was on 12/31/13, they would be in first place with the lowest deviation from actual. But no one did that.
ETA: The interest rate predictions are what killed most of us. Almost everyone predicted significant (percentage wise) increases in interest rates but the 10 year and 30 year yields have fallen by over 25% from the end of last year.
ETA2: And of course the collapse of oil and gasoline prices from last year. No one predicted that....although one person came close on crude price. He predicted $68 when it was $98.62 last 12/31.
This post was edited on 12/9/14 at 4:58 pm
Posted on 12/9/14 at 4:50 pm to b-rab2
It did. The chart is 'real' dollars adjusted for inflation.
ETA...nevermind, that's not the issue...I'll see why it doesn't reflect that
ETA...nevermind, that's not the issue...I'll see why it doesn't reflect that
This post was edited on 12/9/14 at 4:53 pm
Posted on 12/9/14 at 5:08 pm to LSURussian
Sure, you're in 26th place....out of 31
not possible
I really thought rates would be up and inflation would have started kicking in by now....
guess that puts my oil price predictions in perspective
not possible
I really thought rates would be up and inflation would have started kicking in by now....
guess that puts my oil price predictions in perspective
Posted on 12/9/14 at 8:24 pm to Ole War Skule
Spot up .11 to $3.60
Posted on 12/9/14 at 8:29 pm to Iowa Golfer
Posted on 12/9/14 at 8:41 pm to Iowa Golfer
Posted on 12/9/14 at 8:56 pm to Iowa Golfer
Posted on 12/10/14 at 6:44 am to Iowa Golfer
Hopefully a nice floor established where we still have limit up to the mid 4's.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 10:19 am to Iowa Golfer
So given the impact of decay, etc- do we have any estimate of what NG would have to be priced at to get us to anywhere from $12 or $15 or $18 per share for UGAZ? Or is trying to determine that not practical?
Posted on 12/10/14 at 10:54 am to Crbello4Hiceman
I think $4.50 (currently 3.71) on the Feb contract would roughly get you to $14-15 on UGAZ, depending on how rocky the ride up is. Needs to happen soon though before they start rolling into the March contract.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 11:18 am to sneakytiger
Think we have two weeks?
Posted on 12/10/14 at 11:18 am to I Love Bama
Yeah UGAZ is just starting its roll from Jan into Feb. So I'd estimate we have about 3-4 weeks.
Posted on 12/10/14 at 2:38 pm to sneakytiger
Significant drop in prices tomorrow? What's your thoughts on shorting UNG at $18.50 via weekly $18.50 puts?
Posted on 12/10/14 at 4:22 pm to Iowa Golfer
I didn't get the trade filled. F is up to $3.715. For F expiring on 12/26 & 12/29 I hope were forming a bottom because I have a long ways to go. G longs should be fine I think, F is likely another last, last minute deal if it even works out.
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