re: BOIL has become predictable

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Ole War Skule

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I answered your question in the stock market prediction thread.

I had a sell point for a 1000 shares @ 15.75.......it's done...........still holding 2000 shares @ 13.38 price point

wow...as high as 16.55

it really rolling today

still haven't sold, but damn itchy about it

all I can find is everyone is all of a sudden deciding some long term winter forecasts will come to pass with reserves 20% under historical levels

LINK

"A historically cold winter east of the Rockies led to price spike above $6/mmBtu and drained supplies to 11-year lows by the spring. Gas producers have refilled stockpiles at a record rate, but some regional shortfalls remain, BNP Paribas warned in a note Monday. Gulf Coast storage has become increasingly important to serving winter demand, and it is about 20% lower than its five-year average, potentially hampering its ability to supply other markets this winter."

I really want to buy some UNG puts, it's got to pull back after going up 10% in a day

ETA: sold 2k shares at 16.27 (tight trailing % limit), still have 1k

I intend to be long for the winter also, but wanted to sell off and buy back on the next dip. I just had a feel we were reaching resistance at the 16 level and it would drop back down to the 14s or 15s before going higher.

I did buy some 10-3 21 puts for .12, so we'll see how that works.

dang, 550 does sting..I'm only doing lots of 1-200 or so.

good luck

BTW, looks like you had a nice game at Purdue, good D. Maybe we'll see you for the rubber match of our recent bowl series in a playoff game

Yes. And since I'm staying put this week, it will drop like hell after Thursday's storage report. My bull call spreads are looking very good however. If the price takes a plunge on Thursday, I'm picking up long calls.

Yes. You're on the right track. They also have swaps to try to mitigate this. UNG is selling November already. UNG was almost broke once. Frankly all of these paper commodity etf's are scary. People pee themselves over SLV, but I would never own anything except options on this one specifically, and most of them. Read the prospectus. You own nothing many times, and have no right of redemption, or any value at all on an etn.

Contango and backwaration confuse me. We'd be in a backwardation environment as of today, not contango? Appears to me cash is lower than contracts, and Feb is lower than Jan. With respect to the NAV on UNG, there is enough money pouring in to this one that the hits they take almost every month hardly impact it. Wehn prices were going down hard for long periods of time is when they got in to trouble.

Commodities are going to get crushed for the immediate future. And yet? Natty gas.

The above concerns me a bit because the large banks will manipulate the pricing to the extent possible, but natty gas is so volatile, and there are so many hedgers, this many times can overcome the bank's short positions. And weather. And actual demand. And the fact the gubmit considers it vital, so they release a vast amount of information, including tracking the future's contracts. They don't really do that outside of required COT's on gold and silver.

Really the platform right now has no technical resistance to the upward side. I'm not a technical guy, but that's what the chart readers are indicating.

I've got a small put (100 contracts) 10/3 @ 21.5

I should have waited till the last minute and bought them cheap cheap, but thought the fast run up earlier this week wouldn't hold, it has so far

still long UGAZ

I bought some 10/3 21.5 puts earlier today for .07....liking what I see so far.