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re: BOIL has become predictable

Posted on 7/9/15 at 10:16 am to
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3320 posts
Posted on 7/9/15 at 10:16 am to
Bought UGAZ @ 1.78 after the report. 3700 shares
Posted by SoFresh
New Orleans
Member since May 2010
3068 posts
Posted on 7/9/15 at 10:33 am to
I saw that it dipped quite a bit after the report showed an increase in storage over last week and now it has come back up a bit.

Is this a typical swing? Just trying to understand the fundamentals here.
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3320 posts
Posted on 7/10/15 at 8:43 am to
Sold UGAZ @ 2.01. 12% gain.
Posted by white perch
the bright, happy side of hell
Member since Apr 2012
7137 posts
Posted on 7/10/15 at 9:40 am to
Sold UGAZ at 2.00 for a 3.86% gain

Now I just need UWTI to get its shite straight
Posted by Bucktail1
Member since Feb 2015
3188 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 9:01 am to
Bought UGAZ last week at 1.95 and sold today at 2.16. I'm still locked in UWTI at 2.55 though
Posted by white perch
the bright, happy side of hell
Member since Apr 2012
7137 posts
Posted on 7/13/15 at 9:13 am to
I got UWTI at 2.33

I'm tempted to sell and just take my losses, but that's not how you make money. does anybody see this going back up any time soon? I think the Iran deal is gonna be a heavy weight on this.
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3320 posts
Posted on 7/15/15 at 1:12 pm to
Bought UGAZ @ 2.26. 3100 shares.
Posted by Bucktail1
Member since Feb 2015
3188 posts
Posted on 7/15/15 at 2:35 pm to
Can you let us know a little more? Do you think it's about to jump for some reason? The reason I ask is because it's about at its highest level right now that's it's been in a while. Thanks
Posted by jlu03
San Diego
Member since Jul 2012
3320 posts
Posted on 7/15/15 at 5:13 pm to
Put simply, I'm banking on a solid report tomorrow and it's hot as frick outside. There doesn't seem to be an end in sight to this heat. Hot = good for UGAZ
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2473 posts
Posted on 7/15/15 at 6:21 pm to
FWIW I'm looking for gas to pull back to the $2.50 range in the next 60-90 days. Doesn't mean it won't touch $3.00 before then, but I think the shoulder season, Sept through Nov, will see us testing record inventory. Production hasn't flinched.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 7/16/15 at 8:20 am to
With respect to weather, the report would be a week in arrears.

But natural gas did trade up last night.
This post was edited on 7/16/15 at 8:21 am
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 7/16/15 at 9:38 am to
Delayed reaction on that.
Posted by white perch
the bright, happy side of hell
Member since Apr 2012
7137 posts
Posted on 7/20/15 at 1:43 pm to


UWTI dipped this low back in March as well. There's hope yet for us UWTI holders





I cant get the damn chart to load. here's the link:

LINK
This post was edited on 7/20/15 at 1:47 pm
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 7/23/15 at 7:41 am to
It looks like we now have what could be a somewhat bullish technical pattern, and some fundamentals coming together.

Not enough to pull the trigger, but interesting.

Thoughts? Bueller? Bueller?
Posted by L S Usetheforce
Member since Jun 2004
22769 posts
Posted on 7/23/15 at 8:03 am to
Bullish on uwti or ugaz
This post was edited on 7/23/15 at 8:04 am
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 7/23/15 at 8:24 am to
Natural gas. Not quite yet, but it is starting to set up. A couple of competing fundamentals. Cheaper east coast and northern gas being shipped to the south could mitigate whatever we see from an increased burn. Supposed to bring the premium down. We'll see. But increased usage and export seems likely as well.

Technically, the pattern is bullish.
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2473 posts
Posted on 7/23/15 at 8:39 am to
Great writeup on the history and evolution of HH

Marcellus gas is a game changer. At first glance, one would think it would flatten out the seasonal curve, but all that gas has to find a home during the shoulder and summer months, so it reintroduces seasonality, just for different reasons that we've historically seen. Marcellus production floods the market in the summer, depressing prices, but gets sucked up in the NE during winter, lifting prices. The latter part of that is the real question, because we didn't see much "lift" in NYMEX futures last winter, despite historically high consumption.
Posted by white perch
the bright, happy side of hell
Member since Apr 2012
7137 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 7:59 am to
Sold some ugaz for a 1.93% profit yesterday.

Still holding uwti at 2.33

Posted by SoFresh
New Orleans
Member since May 2010
3068 posts
Posted on 7/29/15 at 8:20 am to
quote:

Still holding uwti at 2.33


Ouch. Might be awhile before it comes up that high again.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10230 posts
Posted on 7/30/15 at 7:30 am to
Admittedly clueless pre EIA. WWe traded down all night, and I think there is a possibility for some speculative trades based on heat two weeks ago This should be reflected this morning. Again, not sure.


Thoughts and logic on positions today?
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