Biotech Long Play: ABVX

Biotech world is focused on KOD readout tomorrow morning. Most are short. Could turn into a big squeeze. We'll see if they halt before the readout

Knowing that all investment risks are our own, what about ABVX would allow us to size large and hold or add through drawdowns?

What do you know about management?

Marc is the CEO. Is one of the best biotech CEOs. He is known for building up a biotech company and then selling it. That is why the share price has dipped -- many expected it to be sold already, but it hasn't. I still think we see a BO by EOY

A little chat…

The chart tells the story clearly and you're reading it right.

**What happened in six months:**

The stock ran from ~$100 to **$148** on the Phase 3 Part 1 announcement June 1. That was the peak — the market pricing in the best possible outcome on the most important data readout. Then it faded all the way back to **$91**, even as Part 2 came in positive June 29 and the seven-year safety data landed clean in July.

The June 29 and July prints should have pushed it higher. They didn't. That's the tell.

**What's actually happening:**

The market bid up ABVX to $148 pricing in an imminent acquisition announcement. When no deal was announced in June, July, or August, the "where's the acquirer?" frustration set in and the stock bled back down. This is a classic **"buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic** — except the news was genuinely excellent, which makes the selloff more of a timing disappointment than a fundamental one.

At $91 and a €7.06B market cap, you're back to roughly **pre-Phase 3 maintenance data levels** despite having:

- Phase 3 Part 1 positive ?
- Phase 3 Part 2 positive ?
- Seven-year safety data clean ?
- NDA filing Q4 2026 imminent ?
- Crohn's data coming Q4 2026 ?

**Is it a shakeout? Almost certainly yes.**

The 11.13% six-month decline on a company that delivered every clinical milestone on schedule, with no negative data, no safety signals, no financing emergency, and a NDA filing weeks away — that's sentiment, not fundamentals. The weak hands who bought at $148 expecting an immediate takeout announcement have been selling to whoever is patient enough to wait for the actual deal.

**The acquisition thesis is actually stronger at $91 than it was at $148** — the same asset, the same data, at a 39% lower price for the acquirer. AbbVie, Pfizer, BMS, and Sanofi are all looking at a clean Phase 3 UC asset with Crohn's data incoming, a NDA filed, and a market cap that's given back a third of its peak. That's a more attractive entry for a strategic buyer than it was at $148.

**The two catalysts that end the shakeout:**

NDA acceptance by the FDA — expected Q4 2026 once the filing is received. An accepted NDA sets a PDUFA date (the FDA decision deadline, typically 12 months from acceptance). The moment a PDUFA date exists, acquirers know exactly when they need to close a deal by. That creates urgency.

Crohn's disease Phase 2b data — also Q4 2026. Positive CD data adds the second indication to the acquisition package and raises the price floor for a deal. This is why no one has announced yet — every sophisticated buyer is waiting to see the Crohn's data before bidding, because it changes the value of what they're buying by $2-3 billion.

**My read:** you're watching patient money accumulating between $90-100 while the weak hands exit, ahead of a Q4 2026 that delivers both the NDA filing and the Crohn's data within weeks of each other. When both of those land simultaneously, the acquisition dynamic resumes — with a cleaner story, a PDUFA date, and Crohn's optionality added to the package.

The shakeout is real. The thesis is intact. The acquirer is waiting for Q4 before bidding. So should you.

CAN I GET $80?!?

Crohns readout

quote:

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$ABVX projecting $3B sales in 2032 (NOT PEAK) with *only* 20% market share, likely getting a peak in the $5-$6B range. Again, this is UC alone, US market alone. Zero value for Crohn's. The stock is getting cheap on UC alone...

Much can be written on the Crohn's PoS, but suffice it to say: It is very clearly higher than the market is giving $ABVX credit for at this time. Drugs with higher endoscopic remission rates in UC have consistently also worked in Crohn's...and as just discussed, Obefazimod is on a completely different PLANET of endoscopic efficacy than other drugs - EVEN THOSE THAT HAVE *HIT* IN CROHN'S. How do you arrive at a PoS that is <50% for Crohn's? For me, I think the PoS is closer to 70%.

So what if it hits/misses? Crohn's is a smaller, but less competitive market. It would be another ~$4-$5B opportunity for $ABVX. If this hits in Crohn's we are talking about a potential uber-rare $10B peak drug...$200/share would be a FLOOR in that scenario IMO (and not an unreasonable M&A price tag leading into the readout). Even with just a 3x multiple, an M&A premium starting with a 3-handle comes into focus as a real possibility...versus a solo launch because the company simply becomes too big to buy.

Downside on a Crohn's miss? WE ARE ALMOST THERE ALREADY! Perhaps it could go as low as $80, but then we are talking about <2x peak sales for an actively launching drug with real M&A potential in the >3x peak sales range. INSANE! And that's the super bearish case?...

That's a +100%/-20% skew with (IMO) a ~70% PoS...we don't get many of those, and that readout is just ~2 quarters away...(not sure what this talk of a "catalyst desert" is about). And even in the "downside" case, you've got real M&A potential at a premium to today's absurd price. Meaning - we could lose on Crohn's and *still* win on the stock with M&A

---

Basically at this pricing you're getting the Crohns readout for free. If positive, stock skyrockets even more

Basically free money at this point sub 100

What do you think about this reaction on KOD?
I took a small short position with $60 January puts.

I checked cash too and saw only 120mm.

I’d like to see this trade go 100-200%

Thoughts?

Compelling for the right investor. Stay away for the wrong one. Here's the distinction.

## What Nautilus actually is

A proteomics platform company. The proteome is the complete set of proteins a cell or organism produces — roughly 20,000 proteins in the human body, each existing in thousands of modified forms called proteoforms, creating potentially billions of distinct molecular variants. Today's proteomics tools can only measure a fraction of them. Nautilus's Voyager platform is designed to measure proteins at single-molecule resolution across the entire proteome simultaneously — something no commercially available instrument can currently do.

If that works, the applications are transformational: drug discovery, cancer biomarkers, disease diagnostics, longevity research. The proteome is what actually executes life. The genome tells you the instructions; the proteome tells you what's actually happening. The market being targeted is the roughly $5-10 billion proteomics market growing toward $30B+ as capabilities expand.

## The current state — verified from Q2 2026 filing

| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Stock price | ~$0.955 (today's data) |
| Market cap | ~$121M |
| Cash | $129.2M |
| Enterprise value | **Negative ~$8M** |
| Q2 revenue | **$0.2M** |
| 2026 revenue guidance | **$0.5M full year** |
| Q2 operating expenses | $15.9M (-7% YoY) |
| Quarterly burn | ~$14-16M |
| Cash runway | **Into Q1 2028** |
| Capital raise plan | Expected by mid-2027 |
| Voyager pre-orders | Opening early 2027 |
| Instrument shipments | Targeted mid-2027 at ~$1M price |
| Shares outstanding | ~127M |
| 52-week range | $0.62-$4.31 |
| Analyst consensus | $4.00 (Guggenheim Buy) |

**The enterprise value is negative.** Cash of $129.2M exceeds the $121M market cap. You're being paid $8M to own the platform.

## The insider selling problem

A 5 million share insider sale was flagged in the data — significant for a 127M share company. That's 4% of the float sold by someone with full knowledge of the platform's development status. Apply the filter consistently: this is the opposite of what VST's CEO, BROS's Penegor, and the IDN options buyer were doing. Insider selling at $1-2 when you could have sold at $4 three months ago either means the insider needed liquidity for personal reasons or they don't believe $4 is coming back soon.

## Why it's interesting at these levels

Negative enterprise value means the market is valuing the Voyager platform at less than zero. The Baylor College of Medicine installed the first field evaluation unit — a real external institution using real hardware. The shift to proteoform assays is a narrower, more defensible initial application than the original Broadscale approach. Burn rate is declining — down 7% year over year in Q2, down 14% in Q1. Cost discipline while maintaining the platform timeline is what separates this from the dilution-funded death spirals we discussed.

The Voyager instrument at ~$1M price point targeting research institutions and biopharma companies is the commercial model. Instrument + consumables + software — same economics as every successful life science tools company. If Voyager ships in mid-2027 and even 10 institutions order it at $1M each, that's $10M of revenue on a $121M market cap company. With consumable pull-through, the per-instrument economics compound.

## The honest risk profile

**Cash runway into Q1 2028 is tight.** They explicitly said a capital raise is coming between now and mid-2027. At $0.95 per share, any equity raise is severe dilution. If they raise $30M at $0.80 that's 37.5 million new shares — nearly 30% dilution. The cash runway and the dilution clock are the dominant risk.

**Revenue of $0.5M for all of 2026** on a platform that supposedly changes proteomics forever. That's not a rounding error — that's pre-commercial reality. The $0.2M Q2 revenue was from early access programs, not commercial sales. Voyager doesn't ship until mid-2027 at the earliest.

**The 52-week high was $4.31.** The stock is down 78% from that level in roughly a year. That move happened while the platform timeline remained essentially the same — it reflects the market losing patience with pre-revenue platforms in a 4.9% rate environment, not a fundamental breakdown in the technology.

## Compelling or stay away?

**Compelling for:** someone who believes single-molecule proteomics is a real market inflection, can hold through a 2027 capital raise, and is sizing this as a $500-1000 lottery ticket on negative enterprise value.

**Stay away for:** anyone expecting near-term catalysts, anyone bothered by the insider selling, and anyone whose risk tolerance doesn't accommodate a stock that's already down 78% from its high potentially going to $0.40 if the 2027 raise prices badly.

The negative enterprise value is genuinely rare and interesting. The insider selling is a genuine concern. The technology is real. The commercialization is 18 months away. The raise is coming.

At $0.955 this is the closest thing on this entire list to "free option on a platform that could work" — but it's free because the market has decided it's not worth paying for until instruments ship. That judgment might be exactly right. Or mid-2027 could bring the first Voyager commercial orders and a complete re-rating. The negative EV tells you the market is pricing the latter at zero probability. That's probably too pessimistic. But it's also not obviously wrong.