Biotech Long Play: ABVX

Would love too see possible gains of IVVD go into this.
Or, I may chicken out on IVVD on Monday (if I can). You know what I’m talking about.

In my experience sell off in biotechs continue to accelerate once fda approval is on the table. Since no one gets perfect approvals, no warnings etc.

Do they have any other drugs in the pipeline to attract future speculative investment? Or sounds like the buyout is the thesis for investment?

FDA approval is guaranteed on this one for UC. It is best in class. Extremely safe.

A little chat…

The chart tells the story clearly and you're reading it right.

**What happened in six months:**

The stock ran from ~$100 to **$148** on the Phase 3 Part 1 announcement June 1. That was the peak — the market pricing in the best possible outcome on the most important data readout. Then it faded all the way back to **$91**, even as Part 2 came in positive June 29 and the seven-year safety data landed clean in July.

The June 29 and July prints should have pushed it higher. They didn't. That's the tell.

**What's actually happening:**

The market bid up ABVX to $148 pricing in an imminent acquisition announcement. When no deal was announced in June, July, or August, the "where's the acquirer?" frustration set in and the stock bled back down. This is a classic **"buy the rumor, sell the news" dynamic** — except the news was genuinely excellent, which makes the selloff more of a timing disappointment than a fundamental one.

At $91 and a €7.06B market cap, you're back to roughly **pre-Phase 3 maintenance data levels** despite having:

- Phase 3 Part 1 positive ?
- Phase 3 Part 2 positive ?
- Seven-year safety data clean ?
- NDA filing Q4 2026 imminent ?
- Crohn's data coming Q4 2026 ?

**Is it a shakeout? Almost certainly yes.**

The 11.13% six-month decline on a company that delivered every clinical milestone on schedule, with no negative data, no safety signals, no financing emergency, and a NDA filing weeks away — that's sentiment, not fundamentals. The weak hands who bought at $148 expecting an immediate takeout announcement have been selling to whoever is patient enough to wait for the actual deal.

**The acquisition thesis is actually stronger at $91 than it was at $148** — the same asset, the same data, at a 39% lower price for the acquirer. AbbVie, Pfizer, BMS, and Sanofi are all looking at a clean Phase 3 UC asset with Crohn's data incoming, a NDA filed, and a market cap that's given back a third of its peak. That's a more attractive entry for a strategic buyer than it was at $148.

**The two catalysts that end the shakeout:**

NDA acceptance by the FDA — expected Q4 2026 once the filing is received. An accepted NDA sets a PDUFA date (the FDA decision deadline, typically 12 months from acceptance). The moment a PDUFA date exists, acquirers know exactly when they need to close a deal by. That creates urgency.

Crohn's disease Phase 2b data — also Q4 2026. Positive CD data adds the second indication to the acquisition package and raises the price floor for a deal. This is why no one has announced yet — every sophisticated buyer is waiting to see the Crohn's data before bidding, because it changes the value of what they're buying by $2-3 billion.

**My read:** you're watching patient money accumulating between $90-100 while the weak hands exit, ahead of a Q4 2026 that delivers both the NDA filing and the Crohn's data within weeks of each other. When both of those land simultaneously, the acquisition dynamic resumes — with a cleaner story, a PDUFA date, and Crohn's optionality added to the package.

The shakeout is real. The thesis is intact. The acquirer is waiting for Q4 before bidding. So should you.

CAN I GET $80?!?

This about sums up how incredible the UC data was

quote:

---

Reminder: The P3 UC data are already entirely in...next level efficacy, clean label, once daily oral pill that will (likely) be the ONLY UC treatment on the market with no initiation labs...Absolute MONSTER of a drug. I'll attach the maintenance endoscopic remission data here again...Obefazimod absolutely *blows away* all of the competition (it is NOT close) on what GI docs consider their most important endpoint.

And again, that is a once-daily oral drug with a pristine label beating out the efficacy injections, infusions, and pills with multiple black box warnings...more than DOUBLING the endoscopic remission efficacy while having NONE of the baggage. The risk/reward benefit of this drug is in a different stratosphere than its competitors'.

---

I’ve never seen an R/R from Claude above 78…

Clean slate — pure common equity, no options structure, no assumed position. Risk/reward purely on business quality and valuation at Friday's close.

## FULL RANKING — Common Shares Only, Current Price

| Rank | Ticker | Price | R/R Score | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | **ABVX** | $91.06 | **84** | Phase 3 succeeded twice, NDA filing imminent, cash >$500M, no debt. Clinical risk is gone — the remaining risk is purely whether and when a pharma acquirer pays up. As equity, this is closest to a "the hard part is done" story on the list. |
| 2 | **VST** | $138.46 | **80** | Nuclear/gas power generator, near 52-week low, CEO bought at $135 in the open market, reasonable 21-23x P/E, pays a dividend. Real earnings, real cash flow, a business that improves in a high-rate/high-oil environment. |
| 3 | **OMDA** | $19.72 | **75** | Digital health, GAAP profitable, cash-rich, no debt, beat-and-raise every quarter since IPO. Cleanest growth-plus-profitability combination on the list. |
| 4 | **ZETA** | $29.45 | **73** | Marketing SaaS, positive free cash flow, 20 consecutive beat-and-raise quarters. Near its 52-week high now, so less margin of safety than a month ago — that's the only knock. |
| 5 | **OUST** | $43.72 | **69** | Real revenue growing 56%, 49% gross margin, $263M cash, zero debt, genuine smart-infrastructure moat. Up 15% recently, so you're paying more for the same quality. |
| 6 | **GRAB** | $3.13 | **67** | Southeast Asian super-app, buying back its own stock at the lows, insiders reportedly buying the dip today. Cheap on every metric relative to growth. BofA just cut its target, which tags real near-term uncertainty. |
| 7 | **NBIS** | $237.33 | **66** | Best AI-infrastructure business on the list, but P/S near 48x is genuinely rich, and today's tape shows a live AI-safety-driven selloff hitting the whole sector. As pure equity with no defined-risk structure, this is the most valuation-sensitive name here. |
| 8 | **IDN** | $2.39 | **64** | Pristine balance sheet — 91% gross margin, zero debt, cash-generative — held back entirely by one customer's unresolved vendor review. As a share, you're buying the balance sheet cheap and betting on a binary resolving well in November. |
| 9 | **ADTN** | $7.13 | **60** | Fiber-buildout turnaround, 0.93x EV/Sales genuinely cheap, but debt/equity of 1.87 in a 4.9% rate world is a real risk you fully absorb as a shareholder with no options cushion. |
| 10 | **BROS** | $37.89 | **58** | RSI at 20.85 — extremely oversold, near 52-week low. Real business, real growth, but 90x price-to-free-cash-flow and decelerating same-store sales make this a mean-reversion bet more than a quality-compounder bet at these levels. |
| 11 | **KRMN** | $34.92 | **54** | 56% revenue growth and a $1.3B backlog are real. Negative free cash flow and the JCap short-thesis are unresolved. November 5 earnings decides which story wins. |
| 12 | **ABSI** | $9.74 | **53** | Eli Lilly's $40M strategic investment is real validation. As straight equity you carry full exposure to a binary clinical readout due before year-end with no downside cushion. |
| 13 | **QXO** | $12.43 | **51** | Brad Jacobs is 5-for-5 across prior roll-ups. 6-7x leveraged against a housing-sensitive business is a real risk you own outright as a shareholder — no defined-loss structure. |
| 14 | **IVVD** | $0.93 | **48** | Approved commercial drug, cash roughly equal to market cap, Phase 3 data due any day. As common stock, full binary exposure both ways — genuinely could be a 5x or a total loss depending on data landing this week. |
| 15 | **YSS** | $9.57 | **46** | Up ~20% off the lows, which is a real recovery signal. But the 96%-customer-concentration allegation and the securities class action are both still unresolved. |
| 16 | **BKSY** | $23.25 | **40** | EBITDA-positive inflection was real, but the re-rating from $15 to $23 has already happened. Buying here means paying up for a story the market has mostly caught onto. |
| 17 | **VELO** | $11.29 | **32** | Down 29% with no confirmed catalyst in what I've verified. Structural ATM dilution was always the risk; something clearly hit the stock hard. Needs investigation before any conclusion — flagging honestly rather than guessing. |
| 18 | **SWMR** | $20.73 | **28** | $310K of revenue against a market cap in the hundreds of millions. Fell 5.64% same-day specifically on dilution and execution concerns tied to the Ratel deal — the exact risk materializing in real time. |
| 19 | **ARBE** | ~$0.60 | **20** | Just priced a dilutive offering with warrants for 24.17 million additional shares — roughly 19% of the share count — at a discount to market. Pre-revenue, cash-burning, and the dilution risk is no longer theoretical. As common stock with no leverage or defined-loss protection, this is the weakest risk/reward on the list right now. |