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Message
Posted on 12/7/22 at 10:00 pm to slackster
quote:Hardly. Collapsed would imply they’re back under 5 and dropping.
Bump. Rates have collapsed.
Conventional is still in the 6.5 neighborhood, lenders I talk to daily were pretty surprised rates didn’t jump up after the last fed increase.
Posted on 12/8/22 at 7:06 am to llfshoals
quote:
Hardly. Collapsed would imply they’re back under 5 and dropping.
You don’t get to make up the definition of collapsed.
Rates have fallen by more than 75 bps in the last month. That’s a massive move for long term rates, particularly in the face of everyone in this thread saying they’d be 9% by now.
Posted on 12/8/22 at 8:41 am to slackster
quote:
You don’t get to make up the definition of collapsed.
I mean… “collapsed” is objectively a ridiculous word to use to describe the slight drop in rates recently.

This post was edited on 12/8/22 at 8:48 am
Posted on 12/8/22 at 8:43 am to slackster
quote:You did, and looked stupid
You don’t get to make up the definition of collapsed.
Posted on 12/8/22 at 9:19 am to PhiTiger1764
They reached the goal of slowing the RE market. Priced many out and gave pause to those who can still buy.
Posted on 12/8/22 at 12:42 pm to PhiTiger1764
quote:
mean… “collapsed” is objectively a ridiculous word to use to describe the slight drop in rates recently.
In a thread where 9% was the consensus, on a board where everyone seems to believe inflation won’t stop anytime soon, falling 75 bps in a month is collapsing. Trying to minimize it in the context of this thread would be ridiculous.
10y treasury prices have risen 7% in the last month - that’s a massive move in a year of massive moves in both directions.
Posted on 12/8/22 at 12:43 pm to llfshoals
quote:
lenders I talk to daily were pretty surprised rates didn’t jump up after the last fed increase.
They’re terrible lenders if they think the Fed funds rate impacts mortgage rates in any significant way.
Posted on 12/8/22 at 1:00 pm to slackster
quote:
7-8 range, stabilize 5.5-6.
This is what I said in September as the max. Feeling pretty smart with my guessing.
Posted on 12/9/22 at 10:06 pm to MrJimBeam
I can only hope that you are correct in the 5.5-6 range.
Posted on 12/9/22 at 10:09 pm to shoelessjoe
quote:
I can only hope that you are correct in the 5.5-6 range.
They are already at 5.5
Once this next CPI report comes out the 10yr will drop to 3.1 and we will be at 5 or under
Then chaos
Posted on 12/9/22 at 11:00 pm to Cobra Tate
Where are you seeing 30 year mortgages for 5.5?
Posted on 12/10/22 at 7:45 am to shoelessjoe
On a rate sheet
Call a broker if you want that or keep waiting
Call a broker if you want that or keep waiting
Posted on 12/10/22 at 7:58 am to slackster
quote:Then quite literally every lender in every company is a terrible lender by your standards. I talk a lot of them on a regular basis.
They’re terrible lenders if they think the Fed funds rate impacts mortgage rates in any significant way.
Posted on 12/10/22 at 8:38 am to llfshoals
quote:
Then quite literally every lender in every company is a terrible lender by your standards. I talk a lot of them on a regular basis.
Well it doesnt directly change the 30yr rate
So if they think it does then you might want to talk to other lenders
Posted on 12/10/22 at 4:48 pm to llfshoals
Has anyone bought points to lower an interest rate lately? Just curious of the current price per point.
I’m looking to build a home in the next 1-2 yrs. With lumber prices back to somewhat normal. Was wondering if it is worth to to build sooner and buy points to lower my interest rate to a reasonable number.
I’m looking to build a home in the next 1-2 yrs. With lumber prices back to somewhat normal. Was wondering if it is worth to to build sooner and buy points to lower my interest rate to a reasonable number.
This post was edited on 12/10/22 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 12/10/22 at 9:21 pm to shoelessjoe
quote:
Anyone have insight on how high mortgage rates will go?
Well they can certainly go up a lot more than they can go down.
Posted on 12/11/22 at 5:06 am to SmokinBurger
quote:
Has anyone bought points to lower an interest rate lately? Just curious of the current price per point. I’m looking to build a home in the next 1-2 yrs. With lumber prices back to somewhat normal. Was wondering if it is worth to to build sooner and buy points to lower my interest rate to a reasonable number.
It’s pointless to worry about interest rates right now if you plan on waiting. When we started in February, we couldn’t lock in a rate for when it was time to close as our lender only did construction loans, but gave us a great rate compared to others. At that time lumber prices were high but had recently come down slightly. They tell you when lumber prices are high, interest rates our usually low and vice versa. Well, we certainly got the shaft. Lumber prices were up compared to years past and low and behold, once the lumber usage of our home was done prices came down and now interest rates have climbed. That’s why I started the thread months ago hoping to get some sort of opinion. Interest rates have started to ease but nobody really knows for certain the way the economy has been. Best of luck.
Posted on 12/11/22 at 8:45 am to shoelessjoe
quote:
Interest rates have started to ease but nobody really knows for certain the way the economy has been. Best of luck.
Every recession Mortgage Rates have dropped
So we do know they will come down
Especially when this reading comes out this week
The jobs numbers was a fugazi. They said 225k gained but ADP said 130k lost
The gains where from ppl have 3 jobs to survivie plus birth/death rate
Despite the reading this past week yoy inflation was down significantly
If this reading coming up is the number we think the 10yr could reach 3.1%
And remember the rate the media floats is retail pricing with commission built in. Wholesale is much lower
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