Started By
Message

re: Anyone have insight on how high mortgage rates will go?

Posted on 12/7/22 at 9:24 pm to
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91362 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 9:24 pm to
quote:

Can I expect to have a 9% interest rate by the time this is over? Yes. At least.

Why? Like seriously, why?


Bump. Rates have collapsed.
Posted by llfshoals
Member since Nov 2010
20586 posts
Posted on 12/7/22 at 10:00 pm to
quote:

Bump. Rates have collapsed.
Hardly. Collapsed would imply they’re back under 5 and dropping.

Conventional is still in the 6.5 neighborhood, lenders I talk to daily were pretty surprised rates didn’t jump up after the last fed increase.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91362 posts
Posted on 12/8/22 at 7:06 am to
quote:

Hardly. Collapsed would imply they’re back under 5 and dropping.


You don’t get to make up the definition of collapsed.

Rates have fallen by more than 75 bps in the last month. That’s a massive move for long term rates, particularly in the face of everyone in this thread saying they’d be 9% by now.
Posted by PhiTiger1764
Lurker since Aug 2003
Member since Oct 2009
14477 posts
Posted on 12/8/22 at 8:41 am to
quote:

You don’t get to make up the definition of collapsed.

I mean… “collapsed” is objectively a ridiculous word to use to describe the slight drop in rates recently.

This post was edited on 12/8/22 at 8:48 am
Posted by llfshoals
Member since Nov 2010
20586 posts
Posted on 12/8/22 at 8:43 am to
quote:

You don’t get to make up the definition of collapsed.
You did, and looked stupid
Posted by Billy Blanks
Member since Dec 2021
4989 posts
Posted on 12/8/22 at 9:19 am to
They reached the goal of slowing the RE market. Priced many out and gave pause to those who can still buy.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91362 posts
Posted on 12/8/22 at 12:42 pm to
quote:

mean… “collapsed” is objectively a ridiculous word to use to describe the slight drop in rates recently.


In a thread where 9% was the consensus, on a board where everyone seems to believe inflation won’t stop anytime soon, falling 75 bps in a month is collapsing. Trying to minimize it in the context of this thread would be ridiculous.

10y treasury prices have risen 7% in the last month - that’s a massive move in a year of massive moves in both directions.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91362 posts
Posted on 12/8/22 at 12:43 pm to
quote:

lenders I talk to daily were pretty surprised rates didn’t jump up after the last fed increase.


They’re terrible lenders if they think the Fed funds rate impacts mortgage rates in any significant way.
Posted by MrJimBeam
Member since Apr 2009
12964 posts
Posted on 12/8/22 at 1:00 pm to
quote:

7-8 range, stabilize 5.5-6.


This is what I said in September as the max. Feeling pretty smart with my guessing.
Posted by shoelessjoe
Member since Jul 2006
11191 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 10:06 pm to
I can only hope that you are correct in the 5.5-6 range.
Posted by Cobra Tate
Dubai
Member since Nov 2022
991 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 10:09 pm to
quote:

I can only hope that you are correct in the 5.5-6 range.


They are already at 5.5
Once this next CPI report comes out the 10yr will drop to 3.1 and we will be at 5 or under

Then chaos
Posted by shoelessjoe
Member since Jul 2006
11191 posts
Posted on 12/9/22 at 11:00 pm to
Where are you seeing 30 year mortgages for 5.5?
Posted by Cobra Tate
Dubai
Member since Nov 2022
991 posts
Posted on 12/10/22 at 7:45 am to
On a rate sheet

Call a broker if you want that or keep waiting
Posted by llfshoals
Member since Nov 2010
20586 posts
Posted on 12/10/22 at 7:58 am to
quote:

They’re terrible lenders if they think the Fed funds rate impacts mortgage rates in any significant way.
Then quite literally every lender in every company is a terrible lender by your standards. I talk a lot of them on a regular basis.
Posted by Cobra Tate
Dubai
Member since Nov 2022
991 posts
Posted on 12/10/22 at 8:38 am to
quote:

Then quite literally every lender in every company is a terrible lender by your standards. I talk a lot of them on a regular basis.


Well it doesnt directly change the 30yr rate
So if they think it does then you might want to talk to other lenders

Posted by SmokinBurger
Bayou Self
Member since Sep 2021
503 posts
Posted on 12/10/22 at 4:48 pm to
Has anyone bought points to lower an interest rate lately? Just curious of the current price per point.
I’m looking to build a home in the next 1-2 yrs. With lumber prices back to somewhat normal. Was wondering if it is worth to to build sooner and buy points to lower my interest rate to a reasonable number.
This post was edited on 12/10/22 at 5:00 pm
Posted by highcotton2
Alabama
Member since Feb 2010
10370 posts
Posted on 12/10/22 at 9:21 pm to
quote:

Anyone have insight on how high mortgage rates will go?


Well they can certainly go up a lot more than they can go down.
Posted by shoelessjoe
Member since Jul 2006
11191 posts
Posted on 12/11/22 at 5:06 am to
quote:

Has anyone bought points to lower an interest rate lately? Just curious of the current price per point. I’m looking to build a home in the next 1-2 yrs. With lumber prices back to somewhat normal. Was wondering if it is worth to to build sooner and buy points to lower my interest rate to a reasonable number.

It’s pointless to worry about interest rates right now if you plan on waiting. When we started in February, we couldn’t lock in a rate for when it was time to close as our lender only did construction loans, but gave us a great rate compared to others. At that time lumber prices were high but had recently come down slightly. They tell you when lumber prices are high, interest rates our usually low and vice versa. Well, we certainly got the shaft. Lumber prices were up compared to years past and low and behold, once the lumber usage of our home was done prices came down and now interest rates have climbed. That’s why I started the thread months ago hoping to get some sort of opinion. Interest rates have started to ease but nobody really knows for certain the way the economy has been. Best of luck.
Posted by Cobra Tate
Dubai
Member since Nov 2022
991 posts
Posted on 12/11/22 at 8:45 am to
quote:

Interest rates have started to ease but nobody really knows for certain the way the economy has been. Best of luck.


Every recession Mortgage Rates have dropped

So we do know they will come down
Especially when this reading comes out this week
The jobs numbers was a fugazi. They said 225k gained but ADP said 130k lost
The gains where from ppl have 3 jobs to survivie plus birth/death rate

Despite the reading this past week yoy inflation was down significantly

If this reading coming up is the number we think the 10yr could reach 3.1%

And remember the rate the media floats is retail pricing with commission built in. Wholesale is much lower
Posted by Fat Bastard
2024 NFL pick'em champion
Member since Mar 2009
89353 posts
Posted on 12/11/22 at 10:38 am to


first pageprev pagePage 3 of 4Next pagelast page

Back to top
logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on X, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookXInstagram