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re: Will LSU ever schedule McNeese in football

Posted on 7/17/08 at 5:54 pm to
Posted by Prominentwon
LSU, McNeese St. Fan
Member since Jan 2005
95026 posts
Posted on 7/17/08 at 5:54 pm to
the year McNeese was down.
Posted by Prominentwon
LSU, McNeese St. Fan
Member since Jan 2005
95026 posts
Posted on 7/17/08 at 5:57 pm to
2004, 2005 - 2 of the worst years in program history.....

Now, go look up more scores and post them for me.

You really want to get into past accomplishments?
Posted by Prominentwon
LSU, McNeese St. Fan
Member since Jan 2005
95026 posts
Posted on 7/17/08 at 5:58 pm to
SLC Champs - 12 times
National Runner up - 2002
Playoffs 6 times in this decade alone

Posted by ctiger69
Member since May 2005
31030 posts
Posted on 7/17/08 at 5:58 pm to
quote:

You really want to get into past accomplishments?


Sure let's talk about number of National Championships?

Then let's talk about the last four playoff appearances?
Posted by Prominentwon
LSU, McNeese St. Fan
Member since Jan 2005
95026 posts
Posted on 7/17/08 at 6:00 pm to
quote:

Sure let's talk about number of National Championships?


Oh, so you judge a program by the number of National Championships? made it to Chattanooga as recently as 2002.

2 National Runner ups in the last ten years. So I guess you're going to sit there and tell me Ohio St. is a shitty program?

quote:

Then let's talk about the last four playoff appearances?


Has SLU made the playoffs at all? 1 of the appearances, we've made it to Chattanooga. So keep asking.
This post was edited on 7/17/08 at 6:02 pm
Posted by StanleyB
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2008
525 posts
Posted on 7/17/08 at 7:36 pm to
There is no point in arguing with this jackass. There is a reason why ULM, ULL, Tech, and Tulane will play every other AA team, but not McNeese on a yearly basis.

The only reason ULL finally scheduled McNeese was because of McNeese's two bad years. That bit them in the arse.
Posted by Simba23
Member since Jul 2008
1 post
Posted on 7/18/08 at 4:14 pm to
Did you forget about...
2003 - McNeese 58 SLU 20 or
2006 - McNeese 34 SLU 13 or
2007 - McNeese 45 SLU 17
Posted by JohnStOnge
Prarieiville, LA
Member since Feb 2008
132 posts
Posted on 7/19/08 at 9:56 am to
quote:

The Sun Belt and Southland conferences play very close to the same level of football.


In that regard, the Sun Belt is 4-8 in head to head competition againt the Southland since the Sun Belt became a football conference. The average score is Sun Belt 21, Southland 20.

And, of course, all games were at Sun Belt home fields.

This post was edited on 7/19/08 at 9:57 am
Posted by JohnStOnge
Prarieiville, LA
Member since Feb 2008
132 posts
Posted on 7/19/08 at 10:22 am to
quote:

Probably UL-Lafayette, simply because 1AA games don't count in the power ratings.


I-AA FCS games do count in some power ratings and don't in others. Whether a school would benefit more in the power ratings component depends on the year, but history and the way the power ratings work suggest, I think, that most times a BCS league school would do better playing McNeese.

Sagarin ELO is an example of a power rating system that considers I-AA games and is part of the BCS system. Since Sagarin started reporting ELO ratings, McNeese has finished higher than ULL 4 times and ULL has finished higher than McNeese 3 times. If you go back 10 seasons and look at Sagarin's basic power rating, McNeese has finished higher than ULL 6 times and ULL higher than McNeese 4 times. There's no reason not to believe you'd get the same result with the ELO rating if it had been reported.

Some power systems ignore I-AA games. In that case, you're better off playing ANY I-AA than playing a I-A that's low in power ratings because the I-AA has no impact on your score while a low rated I-A depresses it.

When I looked into this a few years ago I found that one power rating system used in the BCS just assigns a value equivalent to the 70th ranked team in I-A to all I-AA games (or close to that, I'm going from memory but it was somewhere in the 70s and I think the low 70s). So, in that one, you're better off playing a I-AA than any I-A ranked below 70. And the highest Sagarin rating ULL has had over the past 10 years is 119. The highest ELO rating reported on Sagarin's site (past 7 years) is 106.

No guarantees. But I think that chances are notably better than even that, all other things being equal, a BCS league school would end up with a better score in the BCS power ratings component by virtue of scheduling McNeese than it would by virtue of scheduling ULL.
This post was edited on 7/19/08 at 10:35 am
Posted by JohnStOnge
Prarieiville, LA
Member since Feb 2008
132 posts
Posted on 7/19/08 at 1:29 pm to
Remember, LSU played a I-AA in 2003 (Western Illinois) while Southern Cal did not. Yet LSU ended up in the BCS championship game while Southern Cal was excluded.

There is a popular belief that Miami missed the BCS title game at the end of the 2000-2001 season due to having played McNeese; but it is a misconseption.

Here are the final 2000 BCS rankings:

LINK

Notice that Miami ended up with the 3rd strongest schedule according to the Strength of Schedule component used at that time. 0.12 was added to the Canes' score for that component. Even if 0 had been added, they'd have still finished behind the Seminoles 5.57 to 5.37.

In power ratings, Miami's 2000 Louisiana Tech game almost certainly hurt Miami more than playing McNeese did. That's because McNeese generally finished higher in power ratings than Tech did that year. Plus, back then, the system was still using ratings that include margin of victory. From a "mathematical" stanpoint, Miami "overachieved" vs. McNeese but "underachieved" vs. Tech.

Finally, the pollsters had Miami rated #2. That made them the highest ranked 1-loss team. So having played McNeese didn't cost them in that component.

Sure, a BCS team can schedule opponents that will help them more than any I-AA will (assuming they win the game). But just the fact that a team Is I-AA (or FCS) does not mean that having it on a BCS league team's schedule is "worse" in terms of BCS ratings than having any I-A/FCS would be.
This post was edited on 7/19/08 at 1:32 pm
Posted by JohnStOnge
Prarieiville, LA
Member since Feb 2008
132 posts
Posted on 7/19/08 at 2:09 pm to
I'm a McNeese and FCS fan so I understand that I have a different perspective than people who are primarily fans of BCS league schools. I also understand that fans of school like LSU would rather see another BCS league school or one of the top non BCS FBS schools on the schedule than a FCS.

But I've never understood why they'd rather see some low level non-BCS FBS school on their schedule than a really top level FCS. To me, the question of how a really good FCS...a team from a program with a winning mentality...will do makes for a more interesting situation than a routine game against some bottom of the barrell FBS would.

Like the last time App State was down here. I listened to it on radio and watched it on the replay. It was interesting. No, LSU was never in danger of losing but the Moutaineers hung in there pretty darned well. The score was only 14-0 at halftime and was still that at the end of the third quarter. They weren't able to score but they were able to move the ball and keep LSU's offense off the field.

Put it this way: I didn't see LSU's 56-3 victory over North Texas the previous week but I have a hard time seeing how any football fan wouldn't think the App State game was more interesting.

Same thing in 2003 with I-AA playoff team Western Illinois vs. LSU's non BCS I-A opponents. The Western Illnois game was 13-0 at halftime and WIU actually scored to make it 13-7 in the third. The final was 35-7.

During the same season LSU led 21-0 over ULM at halftime and was up 42-0 before ULM scored and led Louisiana Tech 49-0 at halftime. The finals were 49-7 and 49-10.

For the life of me, I can't understand why any football fan wouldn't find a game in which a playoff caliber team from the lower subdivision hung in there pretty well for a while more interesting than total-start-to-finish blowouts over I-A/FBS pretenders.


This post was edited on 7/19/08 at 2:14 pm
Posted by JohnStOnge
Prarieiville, LA
Member since Feb 2008
132 posts
Posted on 7/20/08 at 8:38 pm to
quote:

Louisiana Tech is 98% of the time.
Tulane is 90% of the time.

Both NSU schools and SLU can be better let's say around 30-60% of the time as well.



For what it's worth, you can look at Sagarin ratings back through 1998 (10 years). Those ratings have Louisiana Tech rated higher than McNeese 6 times (60%) and Tulane rated higher than McNeese 7 times (70%). There have been two cases, 2002 and 2007, in which McNeese finished rated highest among Louisiana schools outside of LSU.

As far as the NSU's and SLU go, SLU is 2-3 against McNeese since it resurected its program. But the two wins were during two of the four seasons (96, 99, 04, 05) 1991 - 2007 that McNeese didn't have I-AA/FCS playoff teams. During the last 10 seasons, McNeese is 7-3 vs. Northwestern State and 8-2 vs. Nicholls State.

Nicholls State's made the I-AA FCS playoffs 3 times. Northwestern State's made it 6 times. McNeese has made it 13 times. Southeastern Louisiana, of course, has yet to make the playoff nor has it has yet to finish Southland play without a losing conference record.

Saying that McNeese is consistently the best team in Louisiana outside of LSU overstates the situation. But there are times when the Cowboys probably are. And, way more often than not since 1990, they've been the best I-AA/FCS team in the State.

Posted by lilbigdow
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2008
117 posts
Posted on 7/31/08 at 12:00 pm to
Dude, I'm so tired of you talking about my school! The fact is it dosen't matter how good your football team is, money is what matters. Fans bring money. How many people does McNeese sit for a game? 2-3 hundred? Southern has more fans than that in the parking lot on the Thursday night before the Saturday scheduled game! That's the reason why LSU won't play yall. No fan support! Why would they schedule a beat down like that when they will have to struggle to sell McNeese tickets. That's why Southern is a more wanted matchup than McNeese ever will be. Everybody knows southern will bring 20-30,000 on every road trip. That's why McNeese wanted to play us in 2004 and 2005 because they knew in 2005 we were bringing the whole North side of baton rouge to lake charles and they were going to finally make some money. Who cares about the game! That's why Tulane begged us to play them in 2002, that's why we are playing the Houston Cougars this season, and that's why we are playing UL Lafayette in 2009.
This post was edited on 7/31/08 at 12:04 pm
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