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re: SVP and Brad Edwards confirm ARK irrelevant
Posted on 11/22/11 at 12:59 pm to MoreOrLes
Posted on 11/22/11 at 12:59 pm to MoreOrLes
quote:
Also i cant help believe that if LSU lost to bama 9-6 in OT LSU would be out of it from that point forward
Edwards said empahtically yesterday that under the scenario you describe the Tigers would currently be a very strong #2.
0
Posted on 11/22/11 at 1:00 pm to molsusports
quote:
barring a bama loss to auburn your scenario is not possible
The scenario was based on a 3 way tie atop the SEC West.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 1:11 pm to 24Island
quote:
The scenario was based on a 3 way tie atop the SEC West.
ark has no real shot at either the SEC CCG or BCS NCG unless Bama loses because they will not pass either bama or lsu (bama esp) even with a win over LSU this Friday
Because Arkansas can not pass Alabama in the BCS rankings without Alabama losing to Auburn there is no possible way for them to make the SEC CCG (having lost the heads up with Alabama)
Posted on 11/22/11 at 1:20 pm to molsusports
quote:
Because Arkansas can not pass Alabama in the BCS rankings without Alabama losing to Auburn there is no possible way for them to make the SEC CCG (having lost the heads up with Alabama)
I think with a convincing win at #1 LSU they could, no matter how bad Bama handled them. I dont think they're stuck in that #3 spot...I think the thing least likely to happen is LSU dropping to #3.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 1:22 pm to 24Island
quote:
I dont think they're stuck in that #3 spot.
read the BCS projections thread
the overwhelming likelihood (barring a Bama loss to Auburn) is that you are wrong
Posted on 11/22/11 at 1:26 pm to molsusports
quote:
ark has no real shot at either the SEC CCG or BCS NCG unless Bama loses because they will not pass either bama or lsu (bama esp) even with a win over LSU this Friday
Arkansas may lose the game (we're supposed to, right?), but saying we wouldn't pass LSU after beating LSU in your house is laughable.
Further, anything along those lines would come down to the manner of the game and how it was won... do you really think Arkansas is going to 'get the calls' at LSU?
If LSU happens to lose a home game to Arkansas, and then stay up in the rankings, what does that say about the system we're working with?
Posted on 11/22/11 at 1:31 pm to CalHog
quote:
If LSU happens to lose a home game to Arkansas, and then stay up in the rankings, what does that say about the system we're working with?
it would say they have a commanding lead in teh computers and didn't fall past #3 in the human opinion polls - combining to give LSU a lead over Arky in the BCS total
which is the overwhelming likelihood for anyone who has actually read up on this
This is what happens to someone in a three way tie - someone ends up feeling like they got screwed
Posted on 11/22/11 at 1:32 pm to molsusports
quote:
read the BCS projections thread
Its all predictions. The reality is that we dont know how the human vote will turn out. I find it hard to believe that If Arky blows LSU out on its home field, that the voter wont move them.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 1:39 pm to molsusports
quote:
it would say they have a commanding lead in teh computers and didn't fall past #3 in the human opinion polls - combining to give LSU a lead over Arky in the BCS total
which is the overwhelming likelihood for anyone who has actually read up on this
This is what happens to someone in a three way tie - someone ends up feeling like they got screwed
LSU would have lost a home game, Arkansas a road game.
Do you think the viewing public will digest that logic?
Does that sound logical to you?
Posted on 11/22/11 at 1:40 pm to 24Island
quote:
Its all predictions. The reality is that we dont know how the human vote will turn out. I find it hard to believe that If Arky blows LSU out on its home field, that the voter wont move them.
1) the more convincing stuff amounts to the mathematical projections in the computers. if you have a rational reason to argue the math then your contribution would be welcome in that thread. If you do not then your post amounts to covering your ears and saying "nah, nah, nah, I can't hear you"
2) of course the harris and coaches will move LSU down if they lose. But as bama showed the other week they won't likely move far at all. Assuming Alabama was the new #1 (which is the overwhelming likelihood if they beat Auburn and LSU lost to Arkansas) LSU would still be the team that beat them on their home field (the highest quality win of any team in teh country).
right now LSU has a perfect score in all three components of the BCS
LINK
say that again ten times and then consider how much wiggle room that means
Posted on 11/22/11 at 1:45 pm to CalHog
quote:
LSU would have lost a home game, Arkansas a road game.
if those were the only two games that were considered in teh opinion polls then you would be right. but there is a season's worth of bias in favor of Bama and LSU. There is a marquee win over Bama by LSU, there is an opening day win over Oregon by LSU and a prime time victory over WVU by LSU
There is the added perception (reality actually) that both LSU and Alabama have played the entire season at an extremely high level - whereas Arkansas has struggled against many opponents (Ole Miss, Vandy, A&M obviously) and is probably fortunate to only have one loss
And for anyone who does their due diligence they realize that Arkansas' schedule is notably worse than LSU's and Alabama's this year. I know Hog fans don't want to hear that but that is just the way it is this year
Posted on 11/22/11 at 1:49 pm to molsusports
quote:
say that again ten times and then consider how much wiggle room that means
We just dont know, stranger things have happened..Last thought,I dont want to see any of these scenario's. LSU crushes Arkansas, Georgia and then whoever they put in the Championship game for a Perfect season.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 1:51 pm to molsusports
As I mentioned it will come down to the manner in which the game is won.
If it's a win by LSU this is irrelevant.
If it's a decisive win by Arkansas then it should be a telling factor and be judged accordingly.
If it's a close win by Arkansas then all the 'but this happened earlier in the year' crap likely will be pointed to.
If it's a win by LSU this is irrelevant.
If it's a decisive win by Arkansas then it should be a telling factor and be judged accordingly.
If it's a close win by Arkansas then all the 'but this happened earlier in the year' crap likely will be pointed to.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 1:54 pm to CalHog
quote:
If LSU happens to lose a home game to Arkansas, and then stay up in the rankings, what does that say about the system we're working with?
That it works. The two teams will have the same record, with LSU having played a significantly more difficult schedule.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 2:02 pm to TulaneTigerFan
quote:
That it works. The two teams will have the same record, with LSU having played a significantly more difficult schedule.
You would have lost a home game to another team that only lost a road game to a Top 3 opponent.
If that's your head in the sand stance, you're certainly entitled to it.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 2:04 pm to CalHog
quote:
You would have lost a home game to another team that only lost a road game to a Top 3 opponent.
If that's your head in the sand stance, you're certainly entitled to it.
The entire point of the BCS is to rank the teams that performed the best over the course of the entire season. LSU will have a much more impressive body of work overall than Arkansas, regardless of the difference between home vs away losses. This is pretty simple and would undoubtedly be the popular opinion. Don't act like my opinion is the unreasonable one when you're letting hope override logic
This post was edited on 11/22/11 at 2:05 pm
Posted on 11/22/11 at 2:12 pm to HeadCoach
quote:
Hey hogs, you like apples?
Hey piggies, put that in your pipe and smoke it!
Posted on 11/22/11 at 2:13 pm to TulaneTigerFan
quote:
This is pretty simple and would undoubtedly be the popular opinion. Don't act like my opinion is the unreasonable one when you're letting hope override logic
Homerism followed by irony.
If it's a decisive win by Arkansas it won't matter how badly you've beaten unranked WVU and Florida.
I know that doesn't sit well, so take comfort in the fact that you're 'supposed' to win the game handily.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 2:15 pm to CalHog
quote:
If LSU happens to lose a home game to Arkansas, and then stay up in the rankings, what does that say about the system we're working with?
It would say that in a three way tie, the team with the clear best overall season (because that is what we are supposed to be judging via human and computer polls) should not be the #3 team. So that leaves you with Arkanasas and Bama, and Bama won the head to head matchup there.
Sorry Hogs, if y'all pull off the upset, y'all would have had a great season. But unless y'all win by double digits+, y'all have the comparatively third best season. So you are the third best team.
Posted on 11/22/11 at 2:15 pm to Colonel Flagg
If Arky wants to whine, tell them to schedule someone other than Missouri State, New Mexico, and Troy out of conference. 
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