re: Percentage chance that you give LSU to win in the Regular Season?

I say LSU only loses one or two games this season

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Lol, it means its most likely for the event to happen 8 times, not that its bound by some weird natural law to happen. If you have 80 percent probability and you run it 1000000000000 times, yes you will get very close to 800000000000, but won't his the nail on the head. As the numbers increase, the percentage becomes a more accurate barometer.

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Correct. 8-2 is the best prediction for 10 instances of an 80% chance, but each set of 10 will not always end up 8-2. Still, 8-2 is the prediction that is A) more likely to be exactly correct than any other single prediction, and B) likely to be, on average, closer to the correct result (when it's not exactly correct) than any other single prediction would be, on average.

Its not like a coin flip. If you want to get really techinical with a coin flip, the heads side technically weighs a small amount for, thus its not a perfect 50/50, more like a 49.99999 to 50.00001. You are totally abusing statistics and probabilities. According to you, if Texas and Akron played, Texas would only win 50% of the time. Thats not even close to correct. You are turning this into a two outcome game, but that is just simplifying it far too much. Win/Loss do not take into account positional prowess, home field, weather, play style, and mental state.

*Totally forgot about tiebreakers.

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So, after saying all that LSU is going to win every game:

North Carolina 100%
@ Vanderbilt 100%
Miss. State 100%
West Virginia 100%
Tennessee 100%
@ Florida 100%
McNeese St. 100%
@ Auburn 100%
Alabama 100%
UL-Monroe 100%
Ole Miss 100%
@ Arkansas 100%

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Can't say I agree with this assessment.

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If this happens

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There can't be an "if" here. You said it's 100% certain to happen.
That makes it more certain than the sun shining tomorrow and Democrats raising taxes.

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That's ridiculous. If you make 100 predictions it's possible to be wrong on 35 of them. I hope I'm misunderstanding you here, because that is just stupid.

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You are misunderstanding. I'm not making 100 predictions or 10 or 12. I'm making one prediction, but doing so 12 times. As has been stated, you're using "poor statistical logic." What you attempted to do...

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No, I'm considering each game to be a fraction of a win equal to the percentage chance we have of winning it, then adding them all up to see how many wins we will likely have after all 12 games.

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has no basis in mathematics. The formula that you set up does nothing but established that we have a 678% chance of winning one game.

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You go right ahead predicting that every batter in baseball will go 0-for-the-season every year, since in every at bat for every one of them, they will be less than 50% likely to get a hit.

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Not my argument.

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Likewise, you go ahead and predict a 12-0 season for any team that is 51% likely to win in each game they play.

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My argument. If a team has a greater chance than not at winning ONE GAME, then you can write it down that they win that game.

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You are totally abusing statistics and probabilities

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I'm not using statistics and probabilities. That falls under speculation.
In a 9 horse race theres a 1 in 9 chance of a winner, and in each cfb match played, there's a 1 out of 2 chance either team will win or lose, or they wouldn't play the game. Ask Stanford or App State, or any one of the other hundreds of teams that had "no chance".

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You do realize that La Tech was starting their backup QB against LSU last year don't you?

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You do realize we started Jarrett Lee against Tech last year?

You do realize that none of the players care about playing La Tech? Right or wrong, there's a reason they played better vs Bama, Georgia, or Auburn.

North Carolina 70%
@ Vanderbilt 95%
Miss. State 90%
West Virginia 85%
Tennessee 75%
@ Florida 40%
McNeese St. 99%
@ Auburn 60%
Alabama 50%
UL-Monroe 99%
Ole Miss 80%
@ Arkansas 40%

I'm projecting 10-2.

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chilge1

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You sure have spewed a whole lot of stupid all over this thread.

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My argument. If a team has a greater chance than not at winning ONE GAME, then you can write it down that they win that game.

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If a team has a 51% chance of winning a game, then 51 out of 100 times you can write it down as a win, not every time.

Question: If LSU had a 50% chance of winning every game on their schedule, what would you predict their record to be?

Answer: If you say anything other than 6-6, you are beyond retarded.

Explanation: A 50% chance of victory can be counted as half a win for predictions/probabilities. Rather than add together twelve .5's, I will just say 12 X .5 = 6, as in 6 wins. If, instead, LSU had an 80% chance of winning each game, we would expect their record to be 12 X .8 = 9.6 wins. Now obviously you can't win 9.6 games, and it seems this is a problem for you to understand how this works. It should be apparent even to you that having an 80% shot of winning each game will result in a better record (usually) than having a 50% chance of winning each game. How much better should the record be? About 3.6 wins better.

The fact that we're talking about winning portions of a game doesn't make it any less correct as a prediction. Let's say you and I bet on how many games LSU will win this season, you say 11 and I say 9.6. LSU ends up with 10 wins. Who wins the bet? I do.

North Carolina 50%
@ Vanderbilt 70%
Miss. State 60%
West Virginia 70%
Tennessee 50%
@ Florida 20%
McNeese St. 100%
@ Auburn 50%
Alabama 20%
UL-Monroe 90%
Ole Miss 40%
@ Arkansas 50%