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re: Ole Miss losing is not good for LSU.
Posted on 9/25/09 at 11:50 am to bfniii
Posted on 9/25/09 at 11:50 am to bfniii
quote:
when ole miss loses to unranked south carolina, lsu's sos is reduced thus affecting lsu's "fate".
True, in isolation. But you also have to balance it with the effect it has on LSU's standing nationally to have a team ranked ahead of it go down, as well as the effect of enhancing the likelihood that LSU will win its division, and have a shot at the conference championship. Absent those factors, you'd want all LSU's opponents to win every game except against LSU. But those factors outweigh the strength of schedule factor. Decisively.
This post was edited on 9/25/09 at 11:53 am
1
Posted on 9/25/09 at 11:50 am to NEMESIS
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/25/09 at 12:12 pm
Posted on 9/25/09 at 11:51 am to AlxTgr
quote:i go to the trouble of listing multiple reasons why ole miss losing was bad and all i get in response is this. "you're wrong". no wonder the rant is so frustrating to people
Problem is, you're wrong.
Posted on 9/25/09 at 11:52 am to bfniii
LSU losing a game and Ole Miss losing a game are not equal. LSU probably won't fall as far as Ole Miss will, given its history.
Posted on 9/25/09 at 11:53 am to Cinci Tiger
Cinci, by chance are you related the TheDoc?
Posted on 9/25/09 at 11:54 am to bfniii
quote:
i didn't get it either. but i got it straight from the sec website. i wonder if they have to put that out there in case a game gets cancelled and they can't reschedule or they are unable to finish it due to weather.
Since there are no ties anymore, that's the only thing that makes sense. Weird.
Posted on 9/25/09 at 11:55 am to bfniii
quote:
i go to the trouble of listing multiple reasons why ole miss losing was bad and all i get in response is this. "you're wrong". no wonder the rant is so frustrating to people
I agree, you try to tell someone they're wrong, and they just keep on posting the same old shite...frustrating
Posted on 9/25/09 at 11:57 am to nycajun
quote:lsu moving up by default is not nearly as beneficial as lsu beating a highly ranked ole miss team head to head
But you also have to balance it with the effect it has on LSU's standing nationally to have a team ranked ahead of it go down
quote:again, while that might "enhance" the likelihood, it's still not AS GOOD AS beating ole miss for the right to go to atl while ole miss is ranked higher, rather than lower.
as well as the effect of enhancing the likelihood that LSU will win its division
quote:it's not a question of weight. it's a question of best possible scenario. the factors you cite are GOOD. but not the BEST
But those factors outweigh the stength of schedule factor. Decisively.
Posted on 9/25/09 at 12:12 pm to bfniii
i think most people are missing the fact that ole miss lost to a team we don't play. if ole miss had lost to ark, that doesn't hurt lsu's sos significantly. ole miss would diminish but ark would increase thus, a wash for lsu. sos is calculated cumulatively as the season progresses. but, it would have helped lsu in standing because ark already has an sec loss so lsu's division lead is increased.
it could be said that if ole miss had lost to ark last night that would have hurt ole miss' ranking thus hurting lsu's quality wins (were lsu to beat them later). again, it would have been at the hands of ark, a team that lsu plays thus, another wash. so again, it's not a big deal if west teams beat up on each other because lsu plays all of them. we don't want our opponents to lose to teams we don't play at this point in the season. if lsu loses, everything gets re-evaluated
it could be said that if ole miss had lost to ark last night that would have hurt ole miss' ranking thus hurting lsu's quality wins (were lsu to beat them later). again, it would have been at the hands of ark, a team that lsu plays thus, another wash. so again, it's not a big deal if west teams beat up on each other because lsu plays all of them. we don't want our opponents to lose to teams we don't play at this point in the season. if lsu loses, everything gets re-evaluated
Posted on 9/25/09 at 12:13 pm to inebr8ted tiger
quote:
Ole Miss losing is not good for LSU
It may not be good for LSU, but it does warm the heart.
Posted on 9/25/09 at 12:14 pm to inebr8ted tiger
quote:
Example: Ole Miss had the ball ot its own 40 yard line. 3rd and 7, and down by 6 points. They picked up 6 1/2 yards. They decided to punt with about 6 minutes left in the game. Most other times Houston Nutt goes for that 4th down conversion.
Note that his strategy worked perfectly by placing the burden on his D at that point. They did stop USC, got the ball back with plenty of time to mount a scoring drive and simply failed. They also tried a fake fg from a makeable distance as I recall. Have to disagree with the playcalling being tight. The Gamecocks secondary coverage was what was tight and Snead simply was not up to the task most of the night.
Posted on 9/25/09 at 12:17 pm to inebr8ted tiger
If you people are going to be so ridiculously anal about strength of schedule at this early point in the season, then shouldn't we be just as worried about UW, ULL and Vanderbilt winning all of their games from here on out?
Posted on 9/25/09 at 12:21 pm to SouGent
quote:
If you people are going to be so ridiculously anal about strength of schedule at this early point in the season, then shouldn't we be just as worried about UW, ULL and Vanderbilt winning all of their games from here on out?
I agree. Besides, playing Ole Miss and Alabama on the road, Florida at home and in Atlanta, not to mention Arkansas, Auburn, Georgia, Vanderbilt and Washington, I don't think we need to worry much about SOS.
Posted on 9/25/09 at 12:21 pm to bfniii
quote:
i think most people are missing the fact that ole miss lost to a team we don't play.
I really don't think so. There are just 2 different philosophies: Best Possible Scenario and Best Likely Scenario. Most of us root for the Best Likely Scenario, because we see that is the world we live in. You want to live in some fantasy world and cheer for Best Possible Scenario. Fine, go ahead. We disagree. But don't insult us by saying we can't comprehend what you're saying. We can. We just don't agree with it.
Posted on 9/25/09 at 12:24 pm to inebr8ted tiger
A more accurate statement would be "Ole Miss losing might be bad for LSU". Can't argue with that. However, Ole Miss losing might also be good for LSU. We can't possibly know either way at this point....we can only assume....and you know what happens when you assume...
Posted on 9/25/09 at 12:28 pm to bfniii
Basically it's a matter of what you feel more comfortable with. If you go with Best possible scenario which is contingent on assuming LSU makes their own breaks completly, then you pull for Ole Miss Bama and everybody else on LSU's schedule to win every game they play.
If on the other hand, you look at the history of the SEC west the past 15 years or so and realize that normally, it's very helpful for a couple breaks to go your way ie. a couple SEC west teams to lose multiple games, you chose to pull for the MOST LIKELY SCENARIO being LSU will not go undefeated, Bama, and OM will likely lose games and therefore the best thing for LSU's cause is the other best teams in the west to lose other games as well.
I think the people like bfnii and Cinci are correct what they are saying in theory, but historically speaking, odds are much greater that Losses by teams like Bama and OM this particular year will end up being very helpful to LSU's cause. But that's just me, if your more comfortable being an eaternal optomist about this season then I would go with the other way.
All I know is we would definatly not be talking about an SEC championship in 01 if multiple teams in the SEC west didn't have multiple losses over and over. And just to point out this was the same year LSU got routed by Florida in tiger stadium. Point is to win the SEC MOST of the time you need a couple breaks to go your way.
Ben Franklin-- "The harder I work the luckier I seem to get"
If on the other hand, you look at the history of the SEC west the past 15 years or so and realize that normally, it's very helpful for a couple breaks to go your way ie. a couple SEC west teams to lose multiple games, you chose to pull for the MOST LIKELY SCENARIO being LSU will not go undefeated, Bama, and OM will likely lose games and therefore the best thing for LSU's cause is the other best teams in the west to lose other games as well.
I think the people like bfnii and Cinci are correct what they are saying in theory, but historically speaking, odds are much greater that Losses by teams like Bama and OM this particular year will end up being very helpful to LSU's cause. But that's just me, if your more comfortable being an eaternal optomist about this season then I would go with the other way.
All I know is we would definatly not be talking about an SEC championship in 01 if multiple teams in the SEC west didn't have multiple losses over and over. And just to point out this was the same year LSU got routed by Florida in tiger stadium. Point is to win the SEC MOST of the time you need a couple breaks to go your way.
Ben Franklin-- "The harder I work the luckier I seem to get"
Posted on 9/25/09 at 12:45 pm to bigbowe80
Hot Carl, that was the best post of the thread without a doubt, exactly what alot of us were thinking
Posted on 9/25/09 at 12:48 pm to Hot Carl
quote:i think you know that's going to be incredibly difficult to quantify what with college football being so unpredictable.
Best Likely Scenario
quote:it's not fantasy. best possible scenario is what it is and it's real. i've demonstrated it with multiple, specific points.
You want to live in some fantasy world and cheer for Best Possible Scenario
quote:carl, my comments weren't meant to be personally insulting. i was saying that i cited multiple reasons why it was bad for ole miss to have lost to s.car and what i got in return was "you're wrong" or "we disagree". there is no disagreement. best possible scenario is what it is, period. it's demonstrably quantifiable. if you don't want to cheer for that, fine. you're free not to do so.
don't insult us by saying we can't comprehend what you're saying.
Posted on 9/25/09 at 12:53 pm to inebr8ted tiger
Ole Miss was going to lose 3 this year no matter what. Winning and winning under pressure are too totally different things!!
I said at the first of the year, they were not used to the pressure and would lose 2 to 3 like LSU teams of the 90's.
I said at the first of the year, they were not used to the pressure and would lose 2 to 3 like LSU teams of the 90's.
Posted on 9/25/09 at 12:54 pm to bigbowe80
quote:again, i don't disagree when we're referring to sec west teams losing to sec west teams, at this point in this season, we don't want our opponents to lose to unranked teams we don't play.
If on the other hand, you look at the history of the SEC west the past 15 years or so and realize that normally, it's very helpful for a couple breaks to go your way ie. a couple SEC west teams to lose multiple games, you chose to pull for the MOST LIKELY SCENARIO being LSU will not go undefeated, Bama, and OM will likely lose games and therefore the best thing for LSU's cause is the other best teams in the west to lose other games as well.
quote:it's not a theory. you're pulling for the ideal situation for your team at every point in the season. when a loss occurs (which hasn't happened yet), lsu's wish list gets re-evaluated
I think the people like bfnii and Cinci are correct what they are saying in theory
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