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re: Official SEC West Scenario Discussion Thread (It's over)

Posted on 10/19/15 at 2:56 pm to
Posted by gar90
Member since Sep 2009
6313 posts
Posted on 10/19/15 at 2:56 pm to
quote:

Arkansas already has 2 SEC losses (A&M and Bama), so a loss to them wouldn't kill us either. We could lose either to Arkansas or the A&M/Ole Miss loser and still control our own destiny.

Barring upsets, Bama and the A&M/Ole Miss winner will be must-wins. I'd rather have A&M at home as a must-win than Ole Miss in Oxford, if given the choice.


Yea, but if we lose to Arkansas we likely have to beat all 3 of bama/aTm/Ole Miss.
Posted by Hiphopanonymous
Baton rouge
Member since Jul 2014
2758 posts
Posted on 10/19/15 at 2:58 pm to
Who has the tiebreaker if LSU loses to Bama and beats Ole Miss?
Posted by CheerWhine
A little bit of Mardi Gras
Member since Apr 2014
77059 posts
Posted on 10/19/15 at 3:03 pm to
quote:

Who has the tiebreaker if LSU loses to Bama and beats Ole Miss?


Bama would have that, since Ole Miss would pick up a second loss and we'd only be tied with Bama:

Bama 7-1
LSU 7-1
Ole Miss 6-2

Bama would win head-to-head against us there. The Bama game is looking very much like a must-win now. Get that monkey off our backs, and this will feel so much closer.
Posted by Cadello
Eunice
Member since Dec 2007
48419 posts
Posted on 10/20/15 at 7:02 am to
Thanks for posting!

at the jealous assholes that show up in every thread.
Posted by TriumphTiger
Alpharetta, GA
Member since Sep 2007
10352 posts
Posted on 10/20/15 at 7:34 am to
I love talking this kind of stuff. That being said, LSU controls its destiny at this point. This discussion will get more interesting in November.
Posted by CheerWhine
A little bit of Mardi Gras
Member since Apr 2014
77059 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 6:17 pm to
I like the simplicity of it this time around. Remember "Operation Chaos" last year? Nothing like that here, win and we're in. All the alternate scenarios cover "What if we lose this game?", which feels a lot better than "What has to happen because we lost this game?"

Also, bump for tomorrow's games. For A&M/Ole Miss, since we still have to play both and each has 1 SEC loss, there's really no difference between the two at this point, so it's all about personal preference. The loser will effectively be eliminated from the West race, while our game against the winner will be a must-win unless they lose another game. So pull for the team that you'd rather play in a must-win situation, it's A&M for me personally.

As for Tennessee/Bama, I think we all know what the right answer is for that game.
Posted by St Jean The Baptiste
Laredo, TX
Member since Aug 2015
5828 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 7:45 pm to
quote:

CheerWhine


Thank you for posting this.

Posted by LondonTiger
London
Member since Oct 2011
89 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 10:11 pm to
I disagree:

quote:

For A&M/Ole Miss, since we still have to play both and each has 1 SEC loss, there's really no difference between the two at this point, so it's all about personal preference.


We are more likely to be able to beat A&M (at home) than OM (away). So I'd rather OM picks up its second loss this week, as it gives us a safety net in case we beat Bama but lose to OM. We would still win the West as long as we then beat A&M at home.
Posted by omegaman66
greenwell springs
Member since Oct 2007
24939 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 10:24 pm to
I will be pulling for OM to beat A&M. Ole miss has a number of games they will probably lose. A&M I can see winning most of their remaining games.

And as always never pull for the diatoms!
Posted by CheerWhine
A little bit of Mardi Gras
Member since Apr 2014
77059 posts
Posted on 10/23/15 at 10:31 pm to
I could have worded that better. Since both teams are in the same position in the standings, the winner will be in the same spot regardless of which team it is (must-win game for us, unless they lose another game). You can pull for the team that you think we have a better chance to beat, or the team that you think has a better chance of losing another game.

I'm pulling for A&M since I like our chances against them at home better than against OM in Oxford, but I could see someone pulling for OM since they have a better chance of dropping another game outside of us, based on remaining schedules.
Posted by NotRight37
Nashville, TN
Member since Jul 2014
5843 posts
Posted on 10/24/15 at 12:03 am to
A@M/OM is kind of hard to say at this point and yes I get the home/away deal. I also get the good team/better team deal which I think is more important although I'm not sure which one is better right now.
Posted by dgnx6
Member since Feb 2006
79893 posts
Posted on 10/24/15 at 12:37 am to
there is no scenario for a 3 way tie at 1 loss. So it will be decided by head to head.
Posted by dgnx6
Member since Feb 2006
79893 posts
Posted on 10/24/15 at 12:39 am to
I'd rather tamu win, but that's because their rush d is aweful. LSU can win that game easily.
Posted by LondonTiger
London
Member since Oct 2011
89 posts
Posted on 10/24/15 at 12:43 am to
quote:

there is no scenario for a 3 way tie at 1 loss. So it will be decided by head to head.

Actually there is - but it involves 2-loss teams! Let's not go there...

[sorry - I didn't read "at 1 loss" until after I'd posted... So we agree, but a 3-way tie is quite possible at 2 losses (there are several possible scenarios). But let's not get 2 losses.]
This post was edited on 10/24/15 at 12:48 am
Posted by CheerWhine
A little bit of Mardi Gras
Member since Apr 2014
77059 posts
Posted on 10/24/15 at 12:56 am to
I'm basically assuming that the winner of the West will finish with 1 loss at most, hence my description of Scenario #4 in the OP. I'm not even looking at 2-loss scenarios until they become more realistic.
Posted by CheerWhine
A little bit of Mardi Gras
Member since Apr 2014
77059 posts
Posted on 10/24/15 at 2:34 pm to
Gameday bump, will update Auburn/Arkansas when that finishes.
Posted by CheerWhine
A little bit of Mardi Gras
Member since Apr 2014
77059 posts
Posted on 10/30/15 at 3:28 pm to
Bump for tomorrow's games:

Since we're not playing, Ole Miss at Auburn is the big game to watch for the West tomorrow. An Auburn win would essentially make LSU/Bama the SEC West championship game, since it would allow us to lose in Oxford and still win the West. It would also have the unfortunate side effect of putting Bama back in control of their own destiny, but we'll have a say about that next week.

A&M is the only other West team with a conference game tomorrow, at home against South Carolina. With 2 losses, A&M is basically out of the West race, but still, Geaux Cocks.

Also of interest, the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. The winner will control their own destiny for the East. Florida could even lose one after tomorrow and still win the East outright, while Georgia would need to win out.
Posted by CheerWhine
A little bit of Mardi Gras
Member since Apr 2014
77059 posts
Posted on 10/31/15 at 11:20 am to
Gameday bump
Posted by St Jean The Baptiste
Laredo, TX
Member since Aug 2015
5828 posts
Posted on 10/31/15 at 12:24 pm to
Here's hoping Ole Miss and A&M lose today and the LSU-Bama game becomes the defacto SEC West Championship Game.

Posted by Pauldean
Red Stick by way of Syracuse
Member since Oct 2011
2636 posts
Posted on 10/31/15 at 1:49 pm to
Really hard to cheer for an outcome that puts Alabama back in charge of their own destiny.
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