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re: Official MLB Draft Thread OVER (Neal to LSU!)
Posted on 7/18/22 at 9:27 am to BilJ
Posted on 7/18/22 at 9:27 am to BilJ
As expected. No surprises. Sweat today though.
Still trying to figure out which teams are dangerous beyond the Rangers, but I think the Braves are still a risk to the class and the roster with Jones and Floyd and their penchant of drafting local plus a little extra money to spend from a pre-draft trade.
Still trying to figure out which teams are dangerous beyond the Rangers, but I think the Braves are still a risk to the class and the roster with Jones and Floyd and their penchant of drafting local plus a little extra money to spend from a pre-draft trade.
2
Posted on 7/18/22 at 9:29 am to BilJ
quote:
How’d we do?
Good. Nothing has happened that was not expected.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 9:31 am to Metaloctopus
quote:
I agree with that. The point I'm trying to make, and I didn't really articulate especially well, is that I'm more curious to see if, instead of seeing a run on college seniors to sign underslot in order to make room for high upside signings, will we see teams be more aggressive with the fringe guys, and knock a lot of those college seniors out of the draft where they can go after them for less money as UDFA's than they would perhaps have to pay for a junior who has some leverage.
It just seems like, if teams are really interested enough to pay that much for a UDFA, they'd just assume draft them, because they don't pay college seniors very much, even when they draft them in the top 10 rounds.
I think this will be the long term direction, but I don't know if we see it this draft. There were other rule changes that occurred with the draft combine, and if that becomes more popular we'll see the way underslot senior deals fade a little bit.
But until that happens, if you have a senior you like that will take a couple grand with a $150k slot, and a junior with leverage, you now have about $275K to offer that junior instead of either $150k or $125k. Which still makes those 7-10 round senior signs more attractive than taking juniors in those spots.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 9:35 am to ProjectP2294
Any teams that won’t go over the cap?
Posted on 7/18/22 at 9:36 am to ProjectP2294
The combine guarantee is interesting for a guy like Tebrake. He didn't go to the combine this year. He could come to LSU, shove, then go to the combine next year to lock in leverage.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 9:41 am to ell_13
My teams to watch out for
Diamondbacks
Rockies
Marlins
Guardians
Rangers
Diamondbacks
Rockies
Marlins
Guardians
Rangers
Posted on 7/18/22 at 9:42 am to ell_13
quote:
Any teams that won’t go over the cap?
20/30 teams did last year. I don't know off hand which ones didn't.
Only a handful have gone over every year. The Cardinals were one of them, I don't remember the others.
No one will go more than 5% over. But for someone like the Orioles, that adds around $800,000 which is a ton of extra money to play with.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 9:58 am to ProjectP2294
I thought Neal was expected to be taken? Does that mean he’s expected to make it to campus now? I had hoped for just one of him or Romero.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 9:59 am to ProjectP2294
I would think as far as HS kids going to the draft mean for LSU NIL has more impact here than it ever did in the past at getting HS drafted players to campus. Depending on where they fall of course.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 10:04 am to NFLU7
Neal is already on campus. I expect him to be drafted today unless he's told teams that he's going to school. Just depends where and what kind of money we're talking about whether he signs or not.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 10:05 am to ProjectP2294
quote:
I think this will be the long term direction, but I don't know if we see it this draft. There were other rule changes that occurred with the draft combine, and if that becomes more popular we'll see the way underslot senior deals fade a little bit.
But until that happens, if you have a senior you like that will take a couple grand with a $150k slot, and a junior with leverage, you now have about $275K to offer that junior instead of either $150k or $125k. Which still makes those 7-10 round senior signs more attractive than taking juniors in those spots.
I suppose. It just kind of seems like an "either, or" to me. At the end of the day, you only have so much bonus money to give out to players that you actually want, and if going over $125k on a UDFA counts against your pool, I'm not sure what the advantage is to not draft them between rounds 11-20, where at least you don't have to fight off other teams, and you can go get some those seniors after the draft.
There will always be a fair amount of seniors in the top 10 rounds, IMO, because they are both cheap, and good enough that there is a reasonable possibility that they will contribute at some point, whereas others are clearly just about managing money (no matter what teams say to the contrary) to sign the more "projectable" players.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 10:08 am to deuce985
quote:
I would think as far as HS kids going to the draft mean for LSU NIL has more impact here than it ever did in the past at getting HS drafted players to campus. Depending on where they fall of course.
First and foremost a kid has to genuinely want to go to school. After that NIL can help raise the number that teams would have to pay, but it's not going to be like a 1 to 1 thing.
Say a guy would have normally had a $1.5MM price to be bought out of his commitment before NIL. He would have been on partial scholarship as well.
Now with NIL, he would still be on partial scholarship, but may not have to come out of pocket for the rest of it because NIL money would cover it. That's hard to value, but I'd think it's worth way more than just the dollar amount.
Then, you have the dollar for dollar stuff over 2 or 3 years. If someone, on top of school being completely covered, makes an extra $100k, that increases their ask from MLB.
Then you factor in the things that make college more attractive than the lowest levels of the minors (it used to be the lowest like 3 levels, but now it's pretty much 1 or maybe 2). Better facilities, easier transition from HS to being an adult, different development track, education. All of those things are probably already factored into that original $1.5MM number, but maybe not.
I could see someone that would have asked for $1.5MM asking for closer to $2MM even without a $500K NIL deal.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 10:12 am to Metaloctopus
quote:
I suppose. It just kind of seems like an "either, or" to me. At the end of the day, you only have so much bonus money to give out to players that you actually want, and if going over $125k on a UDFA counts against your pool, I'm not sure what the advantage is to not draft them between rounds 11-20, where at least you don't have to fight off other teams, and you can go get some those seniors after the draft.
It's not about taking seniors between 11-20, it's about taking them between 6-10. That's where the advantage is. Then rounds 11-20 and UDFA are a mix of guys with leverage, since you have a $125K head start on getting to their number and guys you want to sign regardless of whether they are seniors.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 10:24 am to ProjectP2294
If anybody was wondering, my favorite pick yesterday was Reggie Crawford at #17. Suck it, Vitello.
ETA: Or wherever the hell Reggie got drafted from under Vitello's fingertips.
ETA: Or wherever the hell Reggie got drafted from under Vitello's fingertips.
This post was edited on 7/18/22 at 10:34 am
Posted on 7/18/22 at 10:29 am to ProjectP2294
quote:
It's not about taking seniors between 11-20, it's about taking them between 6-10. That's where the advantage is. Then rounds 11-20 and UDFA are a mix of guys with leverage, since you have a $125K head start on getting to their number and guys you want to sign regardless of whether they are seniors.
I know the rounds 6-10 guys are where the most money is saved, but there are some throwaway picks in rounds 11-20, that really don't have much chance of contributing, who could easily be replaced by signing the few fringe guys who would actually warrant a significant signing bonus, instead. Guys who have leverage, are always going to have leverage, so I'm trying to wrap my head around what difference it makes to wait til after the draft to throw 125k at someone, if you didn't think highly enough of them to draft them and pay them that number. Either way you have to pay them, and any overage goes against your pool, just as it would if you pay over slot after the 10th round of the draft.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 10:32 am to DRock88
quote:
If anybody was wondering, my favorite pick yesterday was Reggie Crawford at #17. Suck it, Vitello.
That was Justin Crawford. Reggie went a little later, but yes, I was happy for Vitello that he got to witness Reggie being taken from his team.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 10:32 am to Metaloctopus
Wherever Reggie went, I loved it.
Posted on 7/18/22 at 10:38 am to Metaloctopus
quote:
Guys who have leverage, are always going to have leverage, so I'm trying to wrap my head around what difference it makes to wait til after the draft to throw 125k at someone, if you didn't think highly enough of them to draft them and pay them that number.
That's not really what's going to happen though. The better orgs who will do well in the UDFA market aren't waiting to negotiate with guys there. They're going to also take guys during the draft that they think will help.
But then they'll also sign UDFAs that other orgs didn't see value in while they wasted their 11-20 picks.
Late round picks and UDFAs are where the smart orgs can really separate themselves from the dumb ones. So it's not one org passing up drafting a guy to then try to sign him later, it's one org drafting a guy they can sign and then signing another guy as a UDFA because a bunch of dumb teams didn't draft him.
ETA: Some orgs see their minor league system as a way for their top prospects to get practice and treat everyone but their top prospects as filler. Some orgs try to extract value from every single player they acquire. The point you're making is "why aren't all teams run efficiently?" and it's because a lot of people that own baseball teams are cheap and baseball dumb.
This post was edited on 7/18/22 at 10:41 am
Posted on 7/18/22 at 10:39 am to DRock88
quote:
Wherever Reggie went, I loved it.
As did I
I guess Reggie will just have to "be himself" in the minors instead of whatever Tennessee was going to let him do. That guy took every opportunity he could last night to try to sell the point of "emotional players" just being winners, and how he believes in letting those guys act out like frat boys.
He was all about self-promotion. I have no idea why MLB Network thought that would be a good idea to have him on.
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