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re: NATIONAL TITLE HOPES - Updated page 1
Posted on 11/7/10 at 9:46 pm to tiger chaser
Posted on 11/7/10 at 9:46 pm to tiger chaser
quote:
.IF LSU DOES NOT PLAY IN CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME,....WE WILL NOT...repeat...WILL NOT PLAY IN THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME...you can coat it any way you want to....AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN.....GET REAL....
If 4 of the 5 happen:
Oregon loses
Boise loses
Nebraska loses
TCU loses
Auburn loses twice
Then LSU would get in the NC. Period. End of story. To keep us out, the voters would have to conspire and decide, unanimously, on the team the would want to put in front of us, because LSU will be the #1 team in the computers, and it will be a clusterfrick in the human polls, so much so that unless they conspire against LSU, too many voters would put LSU at #2 or #3 for them to effectively keep LSU out of the NC.
LSU could be arguably the second best team in their division and would still go to the BCS NC. Get over it!
1
Posted on 11/7/10 at 9:49 pm to Tigershatebama
quote:
We might need for Oregon to be embarrassed, or the voters could manipulate it so a 1 loss Oregon doesn't drop below LSU. Computer score will help our chances though.
Oregon is holding onto their computer rankings by a thread. They are one loss away from falling to the back of ALL one loss teams except Utah. In fact, LSUMatt, myself, and Brad Edwards of ESPN cannot explain how they are that high in the computers with a dismal SOS. If Oregon loses, I can promise you that they are not a threat to an 11-1 LSU team.
Posted on 11/7/10 at 9:50 pm to slackster
quote:
LSU could be arguably the second best team in their division and would still go to the BCS NC. Get over it!
You know after people said it was idiotic to talk about a NC in 2007, you would think they would bit their lip...but I guess they have short memories!
Posted on 11/7/10 at 9:56 pm to slackster
quote:
Not sure if we can jump Boise in one week, but it will happen by the end of the season if we both win out. Boise could very well be undefeated and playing in the Pointsetta Bowl
if Nevada somehow lose a game before playing against Boise, then we'll have a chance to jump them IMO
Posted on 11/7/10 at 10:00 pm to PPBeastMode
Like slackster said, it doesn't really matter...it is only a matter of time if we win the SECCG. Now if we finish 11-1 it will be closer.
Posted on 11/7/10 at 10:12 pm to lsumatt
quote:
.it is only a matter of time if we win the SECCG. Now if we finish 11-1 it will be closer.
Unless Va Tech wins out, I think LSU catches them regardless of whether we go to the SECCG or not. That is especially true if Stanford and Wisconsin lose and LSU gets a stranglehold on #5 in the human polls.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 1:34 am to slackster
LSU will play for the national championship if:
1. Auburn loses to Alabama
2. Oregon loses to Oregon St.
3. Auburn loses in SECCG
LSU will be 1st in the computers at that point and AT WORST, 3rd in the Harris/USA today, which would easily vault them over Boise St.
1. Auburn loses to Alabama
2. Oregon loses to Oregon St.
3. Auburn loses in SECCG
LSU will be 1st in the computers at that point and AT WORST, 3rd in the Harris/USA today, which would easily vault them over Boise St.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 5:01 am to grishmoney
quote:
grishmoney
In your scenario, you are correct.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 9:50 am to Mr. Allman
When speaking of our NCG possibilities, why is it so imperative that Nebraska lose?
Posted on 11/8/10 at 10:37 am to CarlockLSU
quote:
When speaking of our NCG possibilities, why is it so imperative that Nebraska lose?
It's not necessarily, they're just the only ones behind us that really pose a threat. If they win out and beat a 1-loss Okie State team in the Big 12 CG, then we may have a problem because they have that extra game ... I stress maybe.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 11:31 am to CarlockLSU
quote:
why is it so imperative that Nebraska lose?
In case #2, where LSU doesn't make the SECCG, it is basically a necessity. I have to believe voters prefer to put the Big12 Champ in over 2nd place SECW. Plus Nebraska's computer ranking is strong. 12-1 Nebraska almost definitely goes over 11-1 LSU.
I don't think Nebraska has a shot over LSU if we win the SEC. But they still play a role. They may steal a dozen 2nd place votes from LSU. On the flip side, they may steal a spot from TCU in the computers, helping LSU.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 3:38 pm to lsumatt
I apologize for not having read this entire thread first but...
what if:
Nevada beats Boise and Auburn loses to Bama and the SEC Championship game?
we would gain a spot on TCU in the human polls by jumping Boise because TCU is already ahead of Boise. Would those human points be enough to make it close enough with us and TCU in the human polls to be able to use our advantage in the computers to pass them in the BCS?
what if:
Nevada beats Boise and Auburn loses to Bama and the SEC Championship game?
we would gain a spot on TCU in the human polls by jumping Boise because TCU is already ahead of Boise. Would those human points be enough to make it close enough with us and TCU in the human polls to be able to use our advantage in the computers to pass them in the BCS?
Posted on 11/8/10 at 3:41 pm to Ford Frenzy
quote:
we would gain a spot on TCU in the human polls by jumping Boise because TCU is already ahead of Boise.
Voters would re-evaluate at season's end and many would move a 1-loss Big12 team above LSU and maybe a couple a 1-loss Big10 team.
LSU is very far behind TCU. I do not see anyway LSU passes them without winning the SECCG. If Stanford, Nebraska, OSU, Wisconsin, MSU, and Ohio State all lost it could make things more interesting. But while they are around with 1-loss they steal votes from LSU (and not TCU really)
Posted on 11/8/10 at 4:00 pm to lsumatt
ok so the most logical way for us to get in is:
a) Auburn loses to UGA and Bama and we win out including the SEC CG AND Boise loses to Nevada?
or
b) Oregon loses to someone, Boise loses, and Auburn loses any two of next 3?
a) Auburn loses to UGA and Bama and we win out including the SEC CG AND Boise loses to Nevada?
or
b) Oregon loses to someone, Boise loses, and Auburn loses any two of next 3?
Posted on 11/8/10 at 4:03 pm to Ford Frenzy
quote:
a) Auburn loses to UGA and Bama and we win out including the SEC CG AND Boise loses to Nevada?
If we win the SECCG, we don't absolutely need Boise to lose. Although we would have a tight race with TCU and a Boise loss may help use close the gpa in the human polls.
quote:
b) Oregon loses to someone, Boise loses, and Auburn loses any two of next 3?
If the two games that AU loses are Bama and SECCG, then I think 1-loss Nebraska or OSU passes us. So we need the Bog12 champ to have 2 losses.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 4:06 pm to lsumatt
quote:that's what I was thinking
Although we would have a tight race with TCU and a Boise loss may help use close the gpa in the human polls.
quote:I gotcha, it would be epically close though
If the two games that AU loses are Bama and SECCG, then I think 1-loss Nebraska or OSU passes us. So we need the Bog12 champ to have 2 losses.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 5:22 pm to Dalosaqy
I see Boise losing to Nevada and Oregon losing to Oregon St. I believe Auburn will lose at least 1 of the remaining 3 games. This puts TCU vs. LSU or LSU vs. Nebraska or Nebraska vs. TCU if LSU wins out and the above happen i believe a strong showing in the Arkansas games vaults LSU to the NCG.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 5:27 pm to ptdearmond1992
quote:
I believe Auburn will lose at least 1 of the remaining 3 games.
Auburn would then be above LSU in the BCS
quote:
This puts TCU vs. LSU or LSU vs. Nebraska or Nebraska vs. TCU
Even if AU loses twice, I am pretty sure it is TCU vs. Nebraska. Not winning the conference will hurt LSU unless there aren't any good options.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 5:32 pm to lsumatt
If Auburn loses to a lowly East team in the SEC CG and LSU wins out Auburn will fall at least 1 spot below LSU...plus a strong game against Arkansas keeps LSU above Nebraska because of their Texas loss.
Posted on 11/8/10 at 5:34 pm to ptdearmond1992
quote:
If Auburn loses to a lowly East team in the SEC CG and LSU wins out Auburn will fall at least 1 spot below LSU
Unlikely. A 12-1 Auburn team that beat 11-1 LSU would probably be ahead of LSU. And even if they weren't, they would steal enough votes from LSU to squeeze them out of the NC game.
quote:
plus a strong game against Arkansas keeps LSU above Nebraska because of their Texas loss.
Being conference champion >> not losing to last years NC runner up.
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