Men's BB Preview: LSU @ Ark; Wed 3/4; 6:00 CST; SECN

Below is each team's NET ranking and quadrant resumes for each team. This is a quadrant 1 game for LSU against Arkansas as they are inside the Top 75 (vs. 1-75 away game is Quadrant 1). These results are as of 3/3/20.

Quad 1 = Against #1-30 Home, #1-50 Neutral, #1-75 Away
Quad 2 = Against #31-75 Home, #51-100 Neutral, #76-135 Away
Quad 3 = Against #76-150 Home, #101-200 Neutral, #136-240 Away
Quad 4 = Against #161-353 Home, #201-353 Neutral, #241-353 Away

#32 (20-9, 11-5 SEC) LSU
Quad 1 = 3-7
Quad 2 = 8-1
Quad 3 = 5-1
Quad 4 = 4-0

#47 (18-11, 6-10 SEC) Arkansas
Quad 1 = 2-6
Quad 2 = 3-5
Quad 3 = 8-0
Quad 4 = 5-0

LSU as of recent
LSU is coming into this game after playing probably the best defense we’ve played all season long in a 64-50 win at home over A&M. Offensively we played one of our poorer games, but it didn’t matter as A&M simply couldn’t find ways to score, even going just 1 for 9 from the FT line. We did a good job on Josh Nebo this time as the 6’10 skilled big man only had 11 points in 39 minutes of play. Mays once again had a huge game going for 24 points on just 12 shots and 4 for 7 from 3 as he carried us offensively with Smart also chipping in 14. LSU has now bounced back a little and won 2 of the last 3 after a bad string of mostly losses.

Arkansas as of recent
Arkansas got talented guard Isaiah Joe back for the Missouri game and have gone 2-1 since he came back after going 0-5 without him in the lineup due to injury. They are coming off a bad loss at UGA where they allowed almost 100 points and Anthony Edwards completely went off on them and that could be the death blow to their NCAA tournament at large hopes on the season as they can only go 8-10 at best now in the conference. Arkansas is certainly looking to bounce back though as some believe if they can win out and finish 8-10, and make a run a bit in the SECT, they could still find themselves chosen on selection day for NCAAT even without winning the SECT.

Arkansas projected starters
PF (6'8, 210) SO. Ethan Henderson
PF (6'6, 217) SR. Adrio Bailey
SG (6'5, 180) SO. Isaiah Joe
SG (6'3, 175) GR. Jimmy Whitt
CG (6'5, 200) JR. Mason Jones

Ethan Henderson has moved into the starting lineup the last 2 games for Arkansas but could easily be replaced in this game as it hasn’t gone well for him scoring a combined 2 points between those 2 games. I believe Musselman is trying to find any way to get a little bigger in his lineup. His conference averages aren’t even worth mentioning as he has averaged under 8 minutes per contest. His conference PER is 11.2 and in the first game against us he played 2 minutes and didn’t record a stat.

Adrio Bailey is a journeyman undersized senior big guy who in 22.4 conference minutes per game this season is averaging 6.8 points, 4.1 boards (0.8 offensive), 1 steal, 1 block, 4 fouls and is 51% from the floor and a notable 42% from 3 (but takes only 1.6 a game). His conference PER is 13.6 on the season and in game against us had 8 points, 7 boards (1 offensive), 4 blocks and 4 fouls in 29 minutes of action.

Isaiah Joe is out there to shoot 3’s, and a lot of them. He’s struggled to find the same stroke he had last year being considered a sharpshooter, but in 34.6 conference minutes per game is averaging 16 points, 3.5 boards, 1.5 assists, 1.5 steals and is 37% from the floor, 35% from 3 (takes 10 a game). His conference PER is 18.8 on the season and in the first game against us went a fairly rough 13 points on 4 of 13 shooting going 2 for 9 from 3.

Jimmy Whitt is one of the more underrated players in the conference in my opinion. There’s nothing flashy about his game and he is an unapologetic SG in the sense he doesn’t take any 3’s but has a deadly mid-range jumper and awkward shooting motion. In 38 conference minutes per game is averaging 14 points, 4 boards (1.3 offensive), 1.5 assists, 1.4 steals on 45% from the floor. His conference PER is 15.4 on the season.

Mason Jones has really held Arkansas together this year and has put up SEC player of the year numbers as a combo guard for them. In 35.3 conference minutes per game he is averaging 22.4 points, 5.5 boards, 4 assists, 1.4 steals, 3 turnovers on 41% from the floor and 29% from 3 (takes 6.4 a game). His 3 point shot has kind of taken a nose dive recently going just 8 for his last 38 but he can fill up the scoreboard in a hurry with 9 20+ point games in conference play so far. He gets to the line to shoot 10 FTs a game at an 80% clip. His conference PER is 25.6 on the season.

Arkansas top bench players
SG (6'1, 196) SO. Desi Sills
PF (6'8, 222) SO. Reggie Chaney
PG (6’2, 166) JR. Jalen Harris

Arkansas in reality doesn’t go deep on the bench as “starter” Ethan Henderson rarely plays much minutes as Sills is the normal starter there. Sills is an undersized 2 guard who can shoot the 3 decently well and throws in 10 points a game. Chaney Just has had a rough time coming around still this season averaging just 4.5 points a game on about 15 minutes. Harris is a more traditional non scoring threat PG who comes off the bench and plays about 25 minutes and has 4 points, 2 assists a game.

Arkansas as a team
Musselman kind of prides on his team playing defense, and they’ve found it a little tough with a smaller lineup in the sEC they sit about 9th in the conference in kenpom’s defensive efficiency leaning on a nice turnover rate of 20.2% of opponent’s possessions which is 3rd in the conference as well as stealing 10.2% of opponent’s possessions which is 2nd in the conference. Because of a lack of height they do give up a lot of offensive glass though and also foul a lot. They play tough 3 point defense but give up a bit inside the arc. Their offense is 6th in efficiency by comparison and are mid-pack in most offensive categories except offensive rebounding they are dead last and turnover % they are best in the conference. Due to Mason Jones, they are 2nd in the conference in getting to the line in terms of FTA per FGA.

The Matchup
Kenpom actually has us losing this game, and we certainly could as it’s not easy to win in Fayetteville and we certainly do not want Joe heating up from 3 on us. We do have a big advantage inside and expect us to do the same thing as last time and beat this team on the offensive glass and 2nd chance opportunities to try and taken them down. I think we need to D up Mason Jones as best as we can and force Arkansas to beat us through Joe, Whitt and others. While Joe going like 6 for 10 from the 3 is one of the last things you want, you’d almost take that over Mason Jones going for 30 with 10-15 FT attempts and getting folks in foul trouble as well. The way we beat Arkansas the first time was out rebounding them 23 to 3 on the offensive glass and going 26 to their 0 on 2nd chance points. Jones and Whitt both had big games on us so if we can just limit Jones, it could be a win for us. We just got by this team the first game around, and it wont be any easier with Arkansas fighting for their tournament lives this time around either.

Projected LSU Starting 5
PF (6'6, 240) SO. Darius Days - #0
SF (6'9, 235) FR. Trendon Watford - #2
SF (6'5, 210) SR. Marlon Taylor - #14
SG (6'4, 205) SR. Skylar Mays - #4
PG (6'4, 205) SO. Javonte Smart - #1

Main rotational players
PF (6'6, 230) SO. Emmitt Williams - #5
SF (6'5, 225) rFR. Aundre Hyatt - #15

Kenpom's Prediction: LSU 77 Arkansas 79