LSU underdog only to Miami if LSU played top11. Let’s let Vegas line be starting point.

LSU vs top 11 per CFP rankings last night.

Rank Opponent Neutral-field line LSU win probability
1 Miami Miami -1.5 46%
2 Georgia Pick'em 50%
3 Utah LSU -4 61%
4 Notre Dame Pick'em 50%
5 UCLA LSU -8.5 73%
6 Indiana LSU -5 64%
7 BYU LSU -9.5 76%
8 Kentucky LSU -6.5 68%
9 Alabama LSU -2 56%
10 Texas LSU -2.5 57%
11 Ohio State LSU -5 64%

The starting point for the playoff should be the Vegas Lines (adjust if a team has laid an egg, like Oregon)

Vegas rank Team Power rating CFP rank
1 Ohio State 29.4 12
2 Notre Dame 29.2 11
3 Indiana 27.1 4
4 Georgia 27.0 2
5 Texas 25.3 7
6 Miami 25.1 1
7 Alabama 23.2 5
8 LSU 23.1 14
9 Oregon 22.9 23
10 Ole Miss 19.5 10
11 Florida 18.6 24
12 USC 18.3 20
13 Oklahoma 17.3 NR
14 Texas Tech 17.2 15
15 Tennessee 16.0 13

Oregon doesn’t deserve a spot since they have severely underperformed and they’ve lost their QB. Put UCLA or BYU in there spot (since you have to have Big 12 rep).

This would result in much more competitive games vs the blowouts we saw last yr.