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Posted on 10/1/09 at 9:01 pm to lsulj
Alabama will be a larger favorite against LSU than UF...Bama is clearly the best team in the SEC right now. Bama line correct...UF line -6 to -7.5
Posted on 10/1/09 at 9:07 pm to MidCityTiger
quote:
Florida -14.5 over LSU
Florida - 9.5, assuming Tebow plays. Anything under a TD means LSU will win, especially if they hang the number at - 6.5
quote:
LSU -2 over Auburn
LSU - 7.5
quote:
LSU -28 over Tulane
Could be spot on.
quote:
Alabama -14.5 over LSU
Alabama - 11.5
quote:
LSU -19 over La. Tech
LSU - 22
quote:
Ole Miss -4 over LSU
Depends. If LSU loses a bit, Ole Miss - 7. If not, LSU at PK to a small road favorite.
quote:
LSU -10 over Arkansas
LSU - 13.5
This post was edited on 10/1/09 at 9:09 pm
Posted on 10/1/09 at 9:10 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
I am not a bookie. But I have been "playing football" for a very long time. I think the site with the most accurate lines (and one used by several books I have known) is LINK
It used to be called Wagerline. They also give a good bit of other information.
The guy that makes the line for Vegas said in an interview several years ago that he starts with the Gold Sheet's Power Ratings and then makes adjustments based on injuries, public perceptions, weather, and other factors.
Usually, one or two games - good or bad - will not change the power ratings much. Maybe a point or two.
There are anomalies. For example, after the Florida game, the public's perception of the Vols rose, since most people thought they would get creamed. And the excellent play, thus far, of Auburn has not overcome the public's perception that they are mediocre. Therefore, IMHO, the Vols are a false favorite in that game.
Barring unforeseen injuries and the like, I think my lines will be pretty close. We will see soon enough.
It used to be called Wagerline. They also give a good bit of other information.
The guy that makes the line for Vegas said in an interview several years ago that he starts with the Gold Sheet's Power Ratings and then makes adjustments based on injuries, public perceptions, weather, and other factors.
Usually, one or two games - good or bad - will not change the power ratings much. Maybe a point or two.
There are anomalies. For example, after the Florida game, the public's perception of the Vols rose, since most people thought they would get creamed. And the excellent play, thus far, of Auburn has not overcome the public's perception that they are mediocre. Therefore, IMHO, the Vols are a false favorite in that game.
Barring unforeseen injuries and the like, I think my lines will be pretty close. We will see soon enough.
This post was edited on 10/1/09 at 9:12 pm
Posted on 10/1/09 at 9:17 pm to MidCityTiger
quote:
I think the site with the most accurate lines (and one used by several books I have known) is LINK
Wrong. Covers is a sports information message board. They are NOT an online gambling site and do NOT accept wagers. They have a line service that they run to show you different numbers from different online sportsbooks. The best used to be Don Best Sports, but they have fallen by the way side. G & J or Sports Options by the Rx are the leaders now for monitoring line movements.
quote:
The guy that makes the line for Vegas said in an interview several years ago that he starts with the Gold Sheet's Power Ratings and then makes adjustments based on injuries, public perceptions, weather, and other factors.
Vegas isn't the line originator any more. Vegas sportsbooks are actually scared to take large wagers. The first lines, "outlaw" lines are set by Bet Cris and Olympic Sports (dba The Greek and Bet Jamaica, although BJ is more for the casual bettor than professional, like Greek). Bet Cris and The Greek will release their lines hours before Vegas even hints at putting them up and by the time Vegas puts up their number, it's a more solid number as it has been bet offshore numerous times and adjusted.
This post was edited on 10/1/09 at 9:19 pm
Posted on 10/1/09 at 9:23 pm to Will Cover
You made my point. There are many independent books that USE Wagerline because it reflects changes in the line and also shows other lines. And I agree, the Vegas line is a bit more solid. And THAT line is finished in the U.S. after other lines have been bet into.
Posted on 10/1/09 at 9:25 pm to MidCityTiger
BTW...I never said they were a sportsbook. They provide information. And, if you're good, you can turn that into cash.
Posted on 10/1/09 at 9:26 pm to MidCityTiger
quote:
There are many independent books that USE Wagerline because it reflects changes in the line and also shows other lines.
WagerLine doesn't determine which way a sportsbook will move their line. Many sportsbooks follow. In other words, many will move "on air" and not necessarily on volume. The books don't want the syndicate action, i.e. Billy Walters group.
Carib Sports is actually a sportsbook that will show the amount of wagers they have taken on one side or another. WagerLine, anyone can make a play on there, because no money is being exchanged. Any one with an opinion can make a "pretend" wager on WagerLine. But I tend to follow the places that actually have money on the line.
It's much more accurate.
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