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re: LSU-Arkansas-Alabama: 3-way tie discussion/breakdown
Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:21 pm to Tiger_n_ATL
Posted on 11/20/11 at 2:21 pm to Tiger_n_ATL
Looks pretty unlikely that Arky goes to Atlanta. Ironically, Arkansas has a better shot at the BCSCG than they do the SECCG.
0
Posted on 11/20/11 at 4:28 pm to JPLSU1981
Video: Gary Danielson says it should be LSU at #1 if LSU loses to Arky
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 4:29 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 8:09 pm to JPLSU1981
Brad Edwards confirms what lsumatt and I have been saying....If LSU loses to Arkansas, it would take nearly 100% of human voters putting LSU at #3 to keep LSU out of the Top2.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:01 pm to JPLSU1981
When did he say this? Because his article on ESPN indicates that a loss to Arky would knock us down to #3 behind Bama and Arkansas.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:08 pm to lsumatt
On ESPN after the Nascar stuff...Exact quote:
"It looks like if Arkansas beats LSU, Bama would be 1, Arkansas 2, and LSU 3, sending Alabama to Atlanta. But I must add that there is a decent chance that LSU finishes #2 in this scenario because of the computer polls. It would take nearly 100% of human voters to put LSU at 3rd to keep LSU from being #2."
That's exactly what he said...Basically saying "I predict LSU at 3, but I also predict LSU at 2"....lol. So really he's setting himself up to be right either way.....OR he's saying that 100% of voters will put LSU at 3. That's where Edwards is wrong IMO.
Honestly, though...Brad Edwards is certainly knowledgable, but you and I know just as much about the BCS as he does. And we're more open to "predict" how the voters will react to certain things based on history of poll reactions, whereas he usually shys away from predicting what human voters will do.
Although I only watched Edwards on ESPN, I was told by someone else that he kind of contradicted himself while on ESPNNews earlier on this very topic.
"It looks like if Arkansas beats LSU, Bama would be 1, Arkansas 2, and LSU 3, sending Alabama to Atlanta. But I must add that there is a decent chance that LSU finishes #2 in this scenario because of the computer polls. It would take nearly 100% of human voters to put LSU at 3rd to keep LSU from being #2."
That's exactly what he said...Basically saying "I predict LSU at 3, but I also predict LSU at 2"....lol. So really he's setting himself up to be right either way.....OR he's saying that 100% of voters will put LSU at 3. That's where Edwards is wrong IMO.
Honestly, though...Brad Edwards is certainly knowledgable, but you and I know just as much about the BCS as he does. And we're more open to "predict" how the voters will react to certain things based on history of poll reactions, whereas he usually shys away from predicting what human voters will do.
Although I only watched Edwards on ESPN, I was told by someone else that he kind of contradicted himself while on ESPNNews earlier on this very topic.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 10:31 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:21 pm to lsumatt
Are you both math teachers? Who in a frantic hope plugged away with variables during the 2007 campaign to understand the BCS. You both have taught me more about this equation than I ever expected to learn, and for that I thank you.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 10:21 pm to lsumatt
Are you both math teachers? Who in a frantic hope plugged away with variables during the 2007 campaign to understand the BCS. You both have taught me more about this equation than I ever expected to learn, and for that I thank you.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:08 pm to JPLSU1981
Excellent. Note that even if LSU loses to AK, which is merely a remote possibility, LSU still must be in the NCG against AK. LSU beat BAMA at BAMA when BAMA had to beat LSU. BAMA beat AK at BAMA. LSU had the strongest schedule.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:11 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
Honestly, though...Brad Edwards is certainly knowledgable, but you and I know just as much about the BCS as he does. And we're more open to "predict" how the voters will react to certain things based on history of poll reactions, whereas he usually shys away from predicting what human voters will do.
Yeah, I become less and less impressed each year. And he definitely went the other way on his weekly column.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:11 pm to BlazinPurple
quote:
Are you both math teachers?
engineering.
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:23 pm to lsumatt
Bama fans on the SEC rant are idiots FWIW....they don't even realize that everything you've said up to this point has been correct.
Of course Oregon, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma state losing changes things....You never predicted the outcome of the games, and the outcomes obviously change things.
But I think it's pretty funny what they are doing considering they are the ones that are being laughed at by me.
Of course Oregon, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma state losing changes things....You never predicted the outcome of the games, and the outcomes obviously change things.
But I think it's pretty funny what they are doing considering they are the ones that are being laughed at by me.
This post was edited on 11/20/11 at 11:24 pm
Posted on 11/20/11 at 11:39 pm to JPLSU1981
quote:
Bama fans on the SEC rant are idiots FWIW....they don't even realize that everything you've said up to this point has been correct.
I have avoided that hell hole. Am I being criticized?
Posted on 11/21/11 at 12:32 am to lsumatt
I am almost done with my engineering degree. Kudos, yall' have been hitting the nail on the head, keep it up and keep educating the masses.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:27 am to JPLSU1981
quote:
I thought I did a pretty decent job of laying out the facts, IF in the event Arkansas wins against LSU.
In your facts and conclusions, you leave out some compelling stats/arguments. Don't blame you b/c you're an LSU fan and want to present LSU's best argument, but here's Arky's:
In the event Arkansas beats LSU, Arkansas would be on the longest winning streak out of the three (8 game winning streak, Bama would be on a 3 game winning streak).
Arkansas had to play @ Bama and @ LSU. Bama got both games at home, LSU got one at home and won their road game at Bama.
Only Arkansas had to face one of the best teams from the East (#12 USC, other team is #13 UGA), and Arkansas won by 16. LSU drew the easier slate of Tenn, UK, UF, and Bama got Tenn, Vandy, UF.
Therefore, if Arkansas beats #1 LSU on the road on the last game of the season, and Arky, Bama, and LSU all finish 11-1, Arkansas deserves to jump LSU and LSU does not deserve to fall below Bama, so final order should be: 1. Arkansas, 2. LSU, 3. Bama. Arkansas goes to SECCG, and if Arkansas wins then it's a Ark-LSU rematch for BCSNC, and if Arkansas loses SECCG then LSU-Bama rematch in BCSNC.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 1:29 am
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:38 am to JPLSU1981
quote:
Brad Edwards confirms what lsumatt and I have been saying....If LSU loses to Arkansas, it would take nearly 100% of human voters putting LSU at #3 to keep LSU out of the Top2.
If the #1 team loses. Wouldn't every voter drop them like they do for every team that loses? Every being 100%?
How would you not put them at #3? Can't put them back above Bama at #1. Can't put them back above Arky after the loss to them. So that would be #3.
Brad Edwards also confirmed a Bama lock as long as Bama beat Auburn. FWIW
Posted on 11/21/11 at 1:43 am to RollTideRockStar
quote:
How would you not put them at #3? Can't put them back above Bama at #1. Can't put them back above Arky after the loss to them. So that would be #3.
Arkansas should move up to #1 after beating #1 on the road, and LSU shouldn't fall below Bama b/c LSU won @ Bama a few weeks ago and has the better overall resume than Bama. That's my opinion.
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:21 am to Jon Ham
quote:
Arkansas should move up to #1 after beating #1 on the road, and LSU shouldn't fall below Bama b/c LSU won @ Bama a few weeks ago and has the better overall resume than Bama. That's my opinion.
The whole argument is circular when you have three teams that beat each other once and obviously any bama fan that reads that is going to either laugh or blow a gasket if you suggest arky should JUMP over alabama when they blew out arky earlier and barely lost to LSU
Most likely something like arky beating lsu while bama held serve against auburn would end up resulting in chaos with most reverting to whatever opinions they have had and been defending the longest.
Overall that probably benefits bama the most and arky the least... it isn't fair because at some level it becomes about media members lobbying for the things they predicted (from the preseason through this week) becoming true but I think all this noise will inevitably affect the other opinion polls that matter (harris and coaches)
Barring both a blowout of lsu by arkansas and a loss by bama to auburn you just will not see a clear human opinion poll #1 declared out of the 3 sec west teams being discussed IMO (assuming they all finish with 1 loss - obviously if lsu wins they remain that team)
A mixture of opinions like this probably also helps hopefuls like oklahoma state (if they beat OU of course) and if the ACC were to sweep the SEC in this weekends games (fsu/florida, usc/clemson, uga/ga tech, wake/vandy) maybe maybe gives va tech a chance if they beat virginia and win the acc ccg
Arkansas is probably all kinds of screwed unless bama loses to auburn and they beat lsu decisively. That's JMO not a preference. If anything Arkansas looks like a lot less of a complete team than say Alabama and I have no reason I can see to favor alabama over arkansas
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:30 am to molsusports
quote:
Arkansas is probably all kinds of screwed unless bama loses to auburn and they beat lsu decisively.
Arkansas is only screwed because they have to win @ LSU, which is a very tall order for any team this season. However, if Arkansas does win @ LSU, there is no chance in hell Arkansas stays at #3. Voters will have to make the decision of whether to put LSU or Bama at 3, and if they are fair they will put Bama at 3.
The most likely possible orders, in order from most to least likely, IMO:
1. Bama
2. Arkansas
3. LSU
1. LSU
2. Arkansas
3. Bama
1. Arkansas
2. LSU
3. Bama
1. Arkansas
2. Bama
3. LSU
Voters take a new perspective each week when casting their votes, and #3 Arkansas winning @ #1 LSU the last game of the season will surely push Arkansas into the top 2.
This post was edited on 11/21/11 at 2:31 am
Posted on 11/21/11 at 2:46 am to Jon Ham
I really feel for you Arkansas fans because you justifiably feel like you should be able to still control your fate but you just need some help right now
you NEED alabama to lose to auburn or you just about can't make teh SEC CCG. The computers are probably just too stacked against you. If South Carolina beats Clemson, A&M beats Texas, Wiscy beats PSU, etc maybe that changes but it is a very tall order for
you NEED alabama to lose to auburn or you just about can't make teh SEC CCG. The computers are probably just too stacked against you. If South Carolina beats Clemson, A&M beats Texas, Wiscy beats PSU, etc maybe that changes but it is a very tall order for
Posted on 11/21/11 at 8:05 am to molsusports
Computers will decide the fates of the tied teams....and the computers will have LSU at 1 or 2 if Arky wins
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