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LSU 2019 Baseball Predictions Thread
Posted on 2/7/19 at 11:48 am
Posted on 2/7/19 at 11:48 am
I know some of you will only care about the shite I get wrong but I love LSU Baseball and I enjoy stats and numbers involving baseball so let's go!
2016 Predictions
2017 Predictions
2018 Predictions
2019 Schedule (42-14, 19-11)
February (8-2)
15: vs. UL-Monroe (W)
16: vs. Army (W)
17: vs. Air Force (W)
19: vs. Southeastern (L)
20: @ Northwestern St. (W)
22-24: vs. Bryant (W, W, W)
26: vs. South Alabama (L)
27: vs. Southern (W)
March (14-5)
1-3: @ #14 Texas (W, L, W)
6: vs. Holy Cross (W)
8-10: vs. California (W, W, W)
13: vs. Texas Southern (W)
15-17: vs. Kentucky (W, L, W)
20: vs. Nicholls (W)
22-24: @ #9 Georgia (L, W, W)
26: vs. McNeese St. (W)
28-30: @ #15 Mississippi St. (W, L, L)
April (14-2)
2: vs. Grambling (W)
5-7: vs. Texas A&M (W, W, L)
9: vs. Southern (W)
12-14: @ Missouri (W, W, L)
16: vs. ULL (Wally Pontiff Classic) (L)
18-20: vs. #3 Florida (W, W, L)
23: vs. Lamar (W)
26-28: @ Alabama (W, W, W)
May (7-4)
3-5: vs. #10 Ole Miss (W, W, L)
7: vs. LA Tech (L)
9-11: @ #12 Arkansas (W, L, L)
14: vs. UNO (W)
16-18: vs. #17 Auburn (W, W, L)
Top Prospects We Face This Season
California: Andrew Vaughn, 1B (Top-3)
Kentucky: Zack Thompson, LHP (Top-8)
Mississippi State: Jake Mangum, OF (Not Draft-Eligible)
Texas A&M: Braden Shewmaker, 2B/SS (Top-25)
Missouri: Kameron Miser, OF (Top-25)
Florida: Tyler Dison, RHP (Top-30)
Florida: Will Dalton, OF (Top-50)
Ole MIss: Parker Caracci, RP (Not Draft-Eligible)
Ole Miss: Ryan Olenek, OF (Not Draft-Eligible)
Arkansas: Dominic Fletcher, C (Top-30)
Arkansas: Casey Martin, IF (Not Draft Eligible)
Auburn: Will Holland, SS (Top-15)
Auburn: Davis Daniel, RHP (Top-50)
Projected Lineup
1. Antoine Duplantis, RF
2. Josh Smith, SS
3. Saul Garza, DH
4. Daniel Cabrera, LF
5. Zach Watson, CF
6. Cade Beloso, 1B
7. Brock Mathis, C
8. Brandt Broussard, 2B
9. Hal Hughes, 3B
Weekend Rotation
Friday: Zach Hess
Saturday: Landon Marceaux
Sunday: Eric Walker
Hitting Projection Highlights (Based off 56 Game Regular Season, not the entire roster)
Daniel Cabrera: .315 Avg, 60 H, 33 R, 14 2B, 7 HR, 45 RBI
Antoine Duplantis: .311 Avg, 69 H, 48 R, 12 2B, 2 HR, 42 RBI, 22 SB
Zach Watson: .294 Avg, 62 H, 43 R, 11 2B, 10 HR, 44 RBI, 20 SB
Josh Smith: .279 Avg, 52 H, 39 R, 11 2B, 5 HR, 36 RBI
Brock Mathis: .219 Avg, 47 H, 35 R, 7 2B, 4 HR, 28 RBI
Saul Garza: .257 Avg, 52 H, 24 R, 8 2B, 12 HR, 38 RBI
Cade Beloso: .290 Avg, 51 H, 34 R, 9 2B, 8 HR, 28 RBI
Hal Hughes: .221 Avg, 31 H, 18 R, 6 2B, 1 HR, 15 RBI
Brandt Broussard: .260 Avg, 35 H, 22 R, 3 2B, 16 RBI, 8 SB
Gavin Dugas: .331 Avg, 40 H, 22 R, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 16 SB
Team Hitting Predictions (Since people don't read that I didn't include the entire hitting roster)
2019 LSU: .290 Avg, 565 H, 372 R, 112 2B, 16 3B, 51 HR, 338 RBI, 97 SB
2016 Predictions
2017 Predictions
2018 Predictions
2019 Schedule (42-14, 19-11)
February (8-2)
15: vs. UL-Monroe (W)
16: vs. Army (W)
17: vs. Air Force (W)
19: vs. Southeastern (L)
20: @ Northwestern St. (W)
22-24: vs. Bryant (W, W, W)
26: vs. South Alabama (L)
27: vs. Southern (W)
March (14-5)
1-3: @ #14 Texas (W, L, W)
6: vs. Holy Cross (W)
8-10: vs. California (W, W, W)
13: vs. Texas Southern (W)
15-17: vs. Kentucky (W, L, W)
20: vs. Nicholls (W)
22-24: @ #9 Georgia (L, W, W)
26: vs. McNeese St. (W)
28-30: @ #15 Mississippi St. (W, L, L)
April (14-2)
2: vs. Grambling (W)
5-7: vs. Texas A&M (W, W, L)
9: vs. Southern (W)
12-14: @ Missouri (W, W, L)
16: vs. ULL (Wally Pontiff Classic) (L)
18-20: vs. #3 Florida (W, W, L)
23: vs. Lamar (W)
26-28: @ Alabama (W, W, W)
May (7-4)
3-5: vs. #10 Ole Miss (W, W, L)
7: vs. LA Tech (L)
9-11: @ #12 Arkansas (W, L, L)
14: vs. UNO (W)
16-18: vs. #17 Auburn (W, W, L)
Top Prospects We Face This Season
California: Andrew Vaughn, 1B (Top-3)
Kentucky: Zack Thompson, LHP (Top-8)
Mississippi State: Jake Mangum, OF (Not Draft-Eligible)
Texas A&M: Braden Shewmaker, 2B/SS (Top-25)
Missouri: Kameron Miser, OF (Top-25)
Florida: Tyler Dison, RHP (Top-30)
Florida: Will Dalton, OF (Top-50)
Ole MIss: Parker Caracci, RP (Not Draft-Eligible)
Ole Miss: Ryan Olenek, OF (Not Draft-Eligible)
Arkansas: Dominic Fletcher, C (Top-30)
Arkansas: Casey Martin, IF (Not Draft Eligible)
Auburn: Will Holland, SS (Top-15)
Auburn: Davis Daniel, RHP (Top-50)
Projected Lineup
1. Antoine Duplantis, RF
2. Josh Smith, SS
3. Saul Garza, DH
4. Daniel Cabrera, LF
5. Zach Watson, CF
6. Cade Beloso, 1B
7. Brock Mathis, C
8. Brandt Broussard, 2B
9. Hal Hughes, 3B
Weekend Rotation
Friday: Zach Hess
Saturday: Landon Marceaux
Sunday: Eric Walker
Hitting Projection Highlights (Based off 56 Game Regular Season, not the entire roster)
Daniel Cabrera: .315 Avg, 60 H, 33 R, 14 2B, 7 HR, 45 RBI
Antoine Duplantis: .311 Avg, 69 H, 48 R, 12 2B, 2 HR, 42 RBI, 22 SB
Zach Watson: .294 Avg, 62 H, 43 R, 11 2B, 10 HR, 44 RBI, 20 SB
Josh Smith: .279 Avg, 52 H, 39 R, 11 2B, 5 HR, 36 RBI
Brock Mathis: .219 Avg, 47 H, 35 R, 7 2B, 4 HR, 28 RBI
Saul Garza: .257 Avg, 52 H, 24 R, 8 2B, 12 HR, 38 RBI
Cade Beloso: .290 Avg, 51 H, 34 R, 9 2B, 8 HR, 28 RBI
Hal Hughes: .221 Avg, 31 H, 18 R, 6 2B, 1 HR, 15 RBI
Brandt Broussard: .260 Avg, 35 H, 22 R, 3 2B, 16 RBI, 8 SB
Gavin Dugas: .331 Avg, 40 H, 22 R, 3 HR, 22 RBI, 16 SB
Team Hitting Predictions (Since people don't read that I didn't include the entire hitting roster)
2019 LSU: .290 Avg, 565 H, 372 R, 112 2B, 16 3B, 51 HR, 338 RBI, 97 SB
This post was edited on 2/7/19 at 12:45 pm
16
Posted on 2/7/19 at 11:54 am to tadelatt
quote:You say we go 20-10 in the SEC, but your single game predictions have us at 19-11.
I know some of you will only care about the shite I get wrong
Have a good day.
ETA: And if it makes you feel better, I got joy from this. I lol'd at your Josh Smith stat line. Have a good day.
This post was edited on 2/7/19 at 11:56 am
Posted on 2/7/19 at 11:59 am to tadelatt
quote:
Josh Smith: .279 Avg, 52 H, 39 R, 11 2B, 5 HR, 36 RBI
What am I missing?
Posted on 2/7/19 at 11:59 am to ell_13
quote:
I lol'd at your Josh Smith stat line.
I lol'd at Cabrera's too. Not to mention, if you try to extrapolate a team BA from those numbers, it's comically low.
Posted on 2/7/19 at 12:00 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
Cabrera 7 HR
What am I missing
Posted on 2/7/19 at 12:01 pm to lsufball19
quote:Based on hits and BA, he only has 4 batters with over 200 ABs... those are: Dup, Watson, Mathis, and Garza...
if you try to extrapolate a team BA from those numbers, it's comically low.
Posted on 2/7/19 at 12:02 pm to tadelatt
43-13 in regular season play, 21-9 in SEC play. SEC tournament champs, Baton Rouge regional and super regional champs, and CWS championship win over Florida
Posted on 2/7/19 at 12:06 pm to Lester Earl
quote:tad doesn't know Gbrera is left handed much less his power numbers or the way the wind typically blows at tBox in the summer (out of the south).
What am I missing
Posted on 2/7/19 at 12:07 pm to lsufball19
quote:
I lol'd at Cabrera's too. Not to mention, if you try to extrapolate a team BA from those numbers, it's comically low.
I did not include the entire roster
Posted on 2/7/19 at 12:08 pm to tadelatt
For teams playing us....
Pain
Pain
This post was edited on 2/7/19 at 12:09 pm
Posted on 2/7/19 at 12:08 pm to ell_13
quote:
Based on hits and BA, he only has 4 batters with over 200 ABs... those are: Dup, Watson, Mathis, and Garza...
Yeah, last year Duplantis had 271 ABs in 63 games. This is projecting him to have 221 ABs in 56 games. Doing simple math, that should come out to 240 ABs over 56 games. Add to that he's batting leadoff this year, he would be getting even more.
Posted on 2/7/19 at 12:09 pm to tadelatt
quote:
I did not include the entire roster
So you think adding bench players would make the team BA higher? And you don't predict Cabrera to have more than 7 HRs and 45 RBIs when he had 8 HRs and 54 RBIs as a freshman?
This post was edited on 2/7/19 at 12:10 pm
Posted on 2/7/19 at 12:09 pm to tadelatt
quote:Are you saying we have 4 starters hitting at 260 or below and there are players on the bench hitting much better than that who don't get the ABs?
I did not include the entire roster
Just trying to follow your logic, homie.
Posted on 2/7/19 at 12:12 pm to lsufball19
3 things.
1) Did you check the SB numbers?
2) Hughes and Broussard each have less than 140 ABs...
3) Mathis at 214 ABs and hitting 0.219 makes me think tad is of the opinion that Garza stays healthy enough to DH but not quite healthy enough to go back to catching. Solid prediction there.
1) Did you check the SB numbers?
2) Hughes and Broussard each have less than 140 ABs...
3) Mathis at 214 ABs and hitting 0.219 makes me think tad is of the opinion that Garza stays healthy enough to DH but not quite healthy enough to go back to catching. Solid prediction there.
This post was edited on 2/7/19 at 12:13 pm
Posted on 2/7/19 at 12:14 pm to lsufball19
quote:
Yeah, last year Duplantis had 271 ABs in 63 games. This is projecting him to have 221 ABs in 56 games. Doing simple math, that should come out to 240 ABs over 56 games. Add to that he's batting leadoff this year, he would be getting even more.
I didn't include advancing on errors or fielder's choice, which count towards the At-Bat total count.
I also have only done the numbers over 56 games, not predicting their previous 56 game history, looking at their actual 56 game history.
Antoine had 228 AB's in 56 games last year, 219 in 55 Games in 2017
Posted on 2/7/19 at 12:15 pm to lsufball19
quote:
So you think adding bench players would make the team BA higher? And you don't predict Cabrera to have more than 7 HRs and 45 RBIs when he had 8 HRs and 54 RBIs as a freshman?
I am being safer than in previous years.
Posted on 2/7/19 at 12:17 pm to tadelatt
How exactly did you arrive at these projections? Did you just make them up or did you construct some sort of algorithm?
Posted on 2/7/19 at 12:17 pm to tadelatt
quote:You don't need those numbers to get the AB totals, tad. Jesus Christ.
I didn't include advancing on errors or fielder's choice, which count towards the At-Bat total count.
quote:What does this mean?
I also have only done the numbers over 56 games, not predicting their previous 56 game history, looking at their actual 56 game history.
quote:Not batting leadoff.
Antoine had 228 AB's in 56 games last year, 219 in 55 Games in 2017
Here are your AB totals. All we need is average and hits to extrapolate them:
DC: 190
Dup: 222
Watson: 211
Smith: 186
Brock: 214 (lol)
Garza: 202
Beloso: 175
Hughes: 140
Broussard: 134
Dugas: 120
This post was edited on 2/7/19 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 2/7/19 at 12:17 pm to lsufball19
quote:
Yeah, last year Duplantis had 271 ABs in 63 games. This is projecting him to have 221 ABs in 56 games. Doing simple math, that should come out to 240 ABs over 56 games. Add to that he's batting leadoff this year, he would be getting even more.
The numbers only show a slight increase based on the difference of AB's a leadoff hitter gets vs a 2nd or 3rd hitter over the past three seasons.
Posted on 2/7/19 at 12:18 pm to tadelatt
quote:Completely understandable with an entirely new lineup. Good call, sir.
I am being safer than in previous years.
On an unrelated note, how long do we let tad go on with this before we RA for spam?
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