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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 10/25/15 at 4:59 pm to LSU-MNCBABY
Same can be said about LSU. WE ARE BUILT TO BEAT BAMA! We are the best in SEC to be able to go head to head on them. And now with Harris we have a mobile QB who can complete deep passes off play action after Fournette has gradually worked on their front 7.
Obviously Bama's front 7 is a concern and most probably the best in CFB. But if there is any team able to beat them its us. Last year we should have won. And considering our QB situation it can be argued that Miles was the better coach on the sideline that NIGHT yet did not win. It happens especially when Chavis is the DC in the last drive of a game with a TD or less lead and Ritter and his crew are officiating.
Obviously Bama's front 7 is a concern and most probably the best in CFB. But if there is any team able to beat them its us. Last year we should have won. And considering our QB situation it can be argued that Miles was the better coach on the sideline that NIGHT yet did not win. It happens especially when Chavis is the DC in the last drive of a game with a TD or less lead and Ritter and his crew are officiating.
Posted on 10/25/15 at 5:00 pm to PacWilly
Bama/Saban mystique, betting action, how much money is being put on what team etc. Vegas always wins no matter what team actually wins. It is rigged that way. And folks who control Vegas know about things like SEC officiating, REC, etc.
Posted on 10/25/15 at 5:06 pm to PacWilly
bama would be about a 3-4 pt favorite on a neutral field.
Posted on 10/25/15 at 10:52 pm to PeaRidgeWatash
That's what FPI said in preseason. I don't think it predicted Alabama to lose to Ole Miss. While it didn't predict LSU to lose any particular game by now, the chances were probably less than 50/50 of LSU being undefeated at this point.
Posted on 10/25/15 at 10:54 pm to Canwoodtiger
quote:
. And folks who control Vegas know about things like SEC officiating, REC, etc.
Do we get favorable officiating this time?
Posted on 10/25/15 at 10:58 pm to grape nutz
quote:
quote:
Bet Bama is win/win. If you lose you still get to enjoy LSU winning.
Not when LSU loses by more than 6.
If you take Bama minus five or whatever, you still win if they beat LSU by 100. LSU won't be favored.
Now, it's not a win-win if Bama were to win by three in that scenario.
Posted on 10/25/15 at 11:03 pm to PacWilly
quote:
Wouldn't LSU be favored on a neutral field? Give Bama points for home so its a pick 'em
Rightly or wrongly, the perception right now is Nick has our number. The perception is also that Bama is especially tough to beat in BDS, which is not really as much of an advantage as people believe.
The line ends up in such a way that when the betting establishment takes its cut, there are enough bets on either side so that it makes money regardless of the outcome. They're not trying to be nuanced sports prognosticators,
This post was edited on 10/25/15 at 11:05 pm
Posted on 10/25/15 at 11:22 pm to geauxtigers
quote:
i dont think it will ever get bama -7...opens at 4.5 settles at 3.5
I think it probably starts around Bama -6 and doesn't move much. I wouldn't touch it at that, and I don't know if the smart money would either, since I'm not the smart money, after all.
If it's anything below 5, people will be all over Bama, and if it's anything 7 or over, people will be all over LSU, IMO.
If it's Bama -6, does anyone have that statistical table that gives the probability of winning straight up at each point level a team is favored? I would guess a six point favorite probably wins straight up about 65% of the time.
Posted on 10/25/15 at 11:59 pm to LSUbase13
sorry if already posted but I saw where there's an early local line released at 3 bama.expected to end up around two and a half.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 12:21 am to Canwoodtiger
Yes I just pulled it for everyone since I'm crashing out for the night. Bamamag poster claiming local early line at - 3 Bama
Posted on 10/26/15 at 6:30 am to supadave3
quote:
What do ya'll think it will open up at? Bama -3.5?
I think since its in T town, Gumps -1 or pick it.
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:15 am to Topwater Trout
Bama by 3. 
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