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Posted on 4/17/17 at 2:43 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:Define "poor" and "better"
Also, if I had to choose between:
1. Good overall BA, poor BA with risp
Or
2. Poor overall BA, better BA with risp
Which one do you think leads to more runs?
Posted on 4/17/17 at 2:43 pm to ell_13
I hear you. Your explanation makes sense.
Posted on 4/17/17 at 2:45 pm to sportsfan
Our team base runs (TeamBSR,a run expectation based on the team's hitting stats) is 198.
Our opponents team base runs based on how they're hitting against us is 135.
The Pythagorean record expectation based on the for and against TeamBSR is 25-12. We are neither outperforming or underperform our run expectation based win percentage. That's kind of weird. The 56 game record projection is 38-18.
This doesn't really argue either way whether we are a good or bad hitting team. It does say that we are what our record says we are though. Which isn't really always the case.
Our opponents team base runs based on how they're hitting against us is 135.
The Pythagorean record expectation based on the for and against TeamBSR is 25-12. We are neither outperforming or underperform our run expectation based win percentage. That's kind of weird. The 56 game record projection is 38-18.
This doesn't really argue either way whether we are a good or bad hitting team. It does say that we are what our record says we are though. Which isn't really always the case.
Posted on 4/17/17 at 2:47 pm to ell_13
quote:
Which one do you think leads to more runs?
I haven't done the math and don't care to. But my gut tells me option 2 leads to more runs.
I was suggesting which problem is more likely to correct itself, therefore a "better" problem to have halfway through the season
I don't know, maybe I'm just reaching for silver linings because I want us to be good
Posted on 4/17/17 at 2:54 pm to ProjectP2294
SEC games only with 2 outs and RISP:
Georgia: 8-25
UF: 1-13
A&M: 1-10
Arky: 1-10
Ole Miss: 6-21
That's 17 for 79 or 0.215 average. ETA: Our SEC avg is 0.267 which is a 52 point difference.
1 for 20 in the losses (0.050)
16 for 59 in the wins (0.271)
Reminder: 11 of the 17 hits came in just 2 of the 15 games. Without those two games, we'd be hitting 0.105 in this situation.
Georgia: 8-25
UF: 1-13
A&M: 1-10
Arky: 1-10
Ole Miss: 6-21
That's 17 for 79 or 0.215 average. ETA: Our SEC avg is 0.267 which is a 52 point difference.
1 for 20 in the losses (0.050)
16 for 59 in the wins (0.271)
Reminder: 11 of the 17 hits came in just 2 of the 15 games. Without those two games, we'd be hitting 0.105 in this situation.
This post was edited on 4/17/17 at 3:13 pm
Posted on 4/17/17 at 3:00 pm to ell_13
How does that compare to other SEC teams in only SEC games?
Posted on 4/17/17 at 3:03 pm to ell_13
Posted on 4/17/17 at 3:03 pm to ell_13
The problem is inconsistency. The stats won't look as bad as reality because we have had a few monster games, makes the reality of our shitty situational hitting look better
Posted on 4/17/17 at 3:05 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:I don't have those stats readily available.
How does that compare to other SEC teams in only SEC games?
Posted on 4/17/17 at 3:07 pm to ell_13
Ell illustrated my point better than I could word it. Disregard my ramble
Posted on 4/17/17 at 3:07 pm to ell_13
I'm not trying to put you on the spot. I'm just not sure what is really good and what is really bad for risp avg.
Posted on 4/17/17 at 3:10 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:It's not good when it's almost 40 points below your season average.
I'm just not sure what is really good and what is really bad for risp avg.
Posted on 4/17/17 at 3:13 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Your risp ba should prob be close to your ba without risp. Being alot higher or lower is usually an anomaly
Posted on 4/17/17 at 3:14 pm to WaWaWeeWa
PM is spooked by Omaha and TD Ameritrade.
It's why we have an entire roster of SS's and place such an emphasis on defense which won Game 3 against Ole Miss.
You sacrifice size and offense.
I watched Ole Miss out there and they dwarf LSU's team from a size standpoint. It wasn't successful for them this weekend as they outhomered LSU but LSU took the series.
Until they change TD Ameritrade which is not likely going to happen, PM is convinced this is the way to win in Omaha. The problem is getting there and they've lost to teams they should not lose to like Coastal last year even though they took that momentum and won it all.
It's why we have an entire roster of SS's and place such an emphasis on defense which won Game 3 against Ole Miss.
You sacrifice size and offense.
I watched Ole Miss out there and they dwarf LSU's team from a size standpoint. It wasn't successful for them this weekend as they outhomered LSU but LSU took the series.
Until they change TD Ameritrade which is not likely going to happen, PM is convinced this is the way to win in Omaha. The problem is getting there and they've lost to teams they should not lose to like Coastal last year even though they took that momentum and won it all.
Posted on 4/17/17 at 3:15 pm to josh336
Right now the difference is 36 points below our season average.
2016 - 16 points lower
2015 - 5 points lower
2014 - 33 points higher
2013 - 23 points lower
2012 - 10 points higher
2016 - 16 points lower
2015 - 5 points lower
2014 - 33 points higher
2013 - 23 points lower
2012 - 10 points higher
Posted on 4/17/17 at 3:17 pm to nicholastiger
He needs to stop over analyzing that shite.
Posted on 4/17/17 at 3:19 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Poncho and the Russian will be here shortly to upvote
Posted on 4/17/17 at 3:24 pm to WaWaWeeWa
No. We are worse in SEC only games. Difference of 52 points lower.
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