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Message
re: Is 13-0 and BCS NCG birth a real possiblity?
Posted on 9/11/11 at 8:18 pm to therocketscientist
Posted on 9/11/11 at 8:18 pm to therocketscientist
add up the percentages for each game.
there is a non-zero chance of losing EVERY game.
10% seems about right to go 13-0. Your big three (Bama, Ark and South Carolina all have a chance and Bama has a GOOD chance, plus the game where a lesser opponent plays super well and LSU does a couple of dumb moves, say roughing the kicker to keep a drive alive, plus one pure luck such as tipped ball that falls into the opponent's lap.
there is a non-zero chance of losing EVERY game.
10% seems about right to go 13-0. Your big three (Bama, Ark and South Carolina all have a chance and Bama has a GOOD chance, plus the game where a lesser opponent plays super well and LSU does a couple of dumb moves, say roughing the kicker to keep a drive alive, plus one pure luck such as tipped ball that falls into the opponent's lap.
2
Posted on 9/11/11 at 8:20 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
That doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
...
Posted on 9/11/11 at 8:21 pm to therocketscientist
The more likely scenario is a 1 loss Tiger team in the BCS NCG. I would put that at a 5% probability. 
Obviously, a 13-0 scenario is much less likely, imv. We have a brutal schedule.
Obviously, a 13-0 scenario is much less likely, imv. We have a brutal schedule.
Posted on 9/11/11 at 8:21 pm to therocketscientist
quote:
BCS NCG birth
"Big Baby" Johnson graduated, fwiw.
Posted on 9/11/11 at 8:26 pm to therocketscientist
I could see 1 loss and still being in the Title Game. The problem is the SEC isn't that great this year by it's usual standards. If we lose a game to a bad team like Auburn, Miss St, or Ole Miss it could really hurt. A loss to Arky would be a late loss and could be costly. A loss to Bama would probably keep us out of the Title game. We almost may have to go undefeated with the SEC teams (outside of Bama) being as weak defensively as they are this year. The conference is nothing special this year with only 2 great teams and maybe 1 good one.
Posted on 9/11/11 at 8:27 pm to therocketscientist
i would say impossible to calculate. we have several games where our chance to win should hover around 50% (bama, arky, florida) plus or minus a coupla % pts and some games where our chance of winning should be around 60% (msu, ut, wv). add the fact that one must factor in some % of not being in the nc game if we lose one and then the trap game odds (ole miss, auburn) and mix all that shite around using various statistic formuli and come up with................with what? a number that will change after one week and not be worth anything until we go 13-0.
Posted on 9/11/11 at 8:28 pm to peopleschamp
quote:
The problem is the SEC isn't that great this year by it's usual standards.
People say this every year.
Posted on 9/11/11 at 8:31 pm to ottothewise
South Carolina and Arkansas=No defense at all. Those teams should not have a chance against our talented defense. That said we may blow it, but those teams have pathetic defenses along with the rest of the conference outside of Bama and LSU.
Posted on 9/11/11 at 8:31 pm to ottothewise
quote:
add up the percentages for each game.
No... If I flip a coin there's a 50% chance it come up heads. So you're telling me if I flip it twice it's inevitable that one would be heads?
Posted on 9/11/11 at 8:33 pm to therocketscientist
Anything is possible but this is highly improbable. Our schedule is too brutal.
Posted on 9/11/11 at 8:45 pm to siliconvalleytiger
For the sake of argument, let's say we have...
a 50% chance at beating Bama,
a 60% chance of beating Arkansas,
a 99% chance of beating WKU
a 90% chance of beating UK
and a 75% chance of winning every other game.
Then our chance of going undefeated is 5.02%
Our chance of finishing with one loss is 18.73%
a 50% chance at beating Bama,
a 60% chance of beating Arkansas,
a 99% chance of beating WKU
a 90% chance of beating UK
and a 75% chance of winning every other game.
Then our chance of going undefeated is 5.02%
Our chance of finishing with one loss is 18.73%
Posted on 9/11/11 at 8:48 pm to therocketscientist
Not likely
Posted on 9/11/11 at 9:05 pm to Tigahs
quote:
South Carolina and Arkansas=No defense at all.
Just like Auburn last year, right?
Posted on 11/6/11 at 11:21 pm to DocBugbear
Higher than 20% imho...
Posted on 11/6/11 at 11:27 pm to Doc Fenton
Quality bump
Posted on 11/6/11 at 11:27 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
Higher than 20% imho...
I was reading through this thread and was like wtf...and then I saw the dates.
I agree with, Doc, higher than 20%. W. Kentucky 99.99%
@ Ole Miss 98%
Arkansas 80%
@ UGA 75%
Total: 58%
Posted on 11/6/11 at 11:54 pm to therocketscientist
quote:
Is 13-0 and BCS NCG birth a real possiblity?
Berth - maybe / birth - messy.
Posted on 11/7/11 at 12:04 am to therocketscientist
Vegas has us at -150. Thats could be with getting in with a loss but they think us winning is over 50 percent.
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