Is a late 4th 3 pt lead better than a late 4th 4 pt lead?

The percentages say that 7 is the number you want. I agree with you, that sure points are better than unsure points. BUT, every coach is grounded to go for 2 in that situation. Playing for overtime, or a tie, is a safe thing to do at BAMA?

I don't know if that is a good conclusion. Either way, he would have been open to criticism.

I'd have gone for the sure thing each and every time.

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The percentages say that 7 is the number you want.

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Not late in the 3rd against a team of field goals.

The percentages said that Bama's next score was at least as likely to be a FG instead of a TD.

And in fact - it WAS a FG, as we all know.

had Les taken the 1 it would have been 16-13 at that point instead of 15-13. This, IMO, may have caused Saban to play more conservatively and the game may have would up a 16-16 OT match.

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You're plain dumb. He's an aggressive coach, so he's going to make aggressive decisions. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

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Ok. Why not go for 2 points after EVERY TD?

The decision to go for 2 pts is a purely mathematical one. It has little to do with balls.


It has to do with -
a) score
b) time left on clock
c) likelihood of there being FG's in the mix


If there had been 5 minutes left on the clock, going for 2 would have made sense. With 5 minutes left, its likely Bama would have only gotten in 1 score. Either way, they would have needed a TD - going for 2 then makes it possible a TD would only tie.

But with a few minutes left in the THIRD - there is NO WAY you can tell how the points are going to stack up. Esp. since bama kicks a LOT of FG's. In this case, the choice between a virtual certain 6 point lead and a coin flip between a 5 point and 7 point lead is clear - you take the 2 FG lead.

especially if u have a backup QB that has attempted 8 passes the entire season.

they are good for setting up JL for failure. refuse to give the kid playing time all season, then ask him to complete a 2pt conversion.

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going for two in this situation is down right brain dead. There is no excuse Les can make that makes this call make sense. In the 3rd quarter of a game that appeared as if it was going to be decided by FGs he doesn't take the extra point and put us up 6. We could have EASILY ended up losing this game 16-15 the way the game was playing out.

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He needs to hire a damn statistician.

a) probability of scoring a 2 pt conversion (use past data)
b) probability of scoring a 1 pt conversion (use past data)
c) probability of opponent scoring X amount of points in the time left (use opponent past data)


c) will depend a lot on HOW a team scores. For instance - a team which scores 95% of its scores in touchdowns - that's different. In that case, Les should have gone for 2, would have made good sense. A team which scores over half its scores on FG's, on the other hand - not a good idea.



given that it should be possible to statistically figure all that out, and for every game, give les a card, with time left in the columns and score in the rows.

12Buck, first off, you don't seem to know what you are talking about. Miles reason for going for 2 is the right reason. Up to that point, points were hard to come by, judging from this season coming into this game, everyone knew that points were going to be hard to come by. In a game that may have been decided by field goals, going for 2 and putting us up by 7 would have meant that ALABAMA either had to score a TD, which they had done 1 time during the game, or kick 3 field goals, which meant that they would have had to move the ball down the field 3 more times and us not score to win. In that case, i thought it was a great idea. And judging from past experiences, this is how he coaches, so you either live with it or die with it. GOing for 2 is one of those things that either makes you look like a genius or an idiot, and in this case it didn't work out for us. But calling him brain dead is just not intelligent. Even the commentators agreed with his decision. I also notice that you didn't call Nick Saban brain dead for doing the exact same thing when he scored. It really doesn't matter what quarter it is in, most coaches would tell you that if they have the opportunity to be up by 6 or 7 after half, they will most likely choose to try for the 2 point conversion and go up by 7.

It seems to me that, until you are deep enough into the game to be able to anticipate with a reasonable degree of probable correctness the ultimate effect of going for 2, it's always better to go for 1.

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12Buck, first off, you don't seem to know what you are talking about. Miles reason for going for 2 is the right reason. Up to that point, points were hard to come by, judging from this season coming into this game, everyone knew that points were going to be hard to come by. In a game that may have been decided by field goals, going for 2 and putting us up by 7 would have meant that ALABAMA either had to score a TD, which they had done 1 time during the game, or kick 3 field goals, which meant that they would have had to move the ball down the field 3 more times and us not score to win. In that case, i thought it was a great idea. And judging from past experiences, this is how he coaches, so you either live with it or die with it. GOing for 2 is one of those things that either makes you look like a genius or an idiot, and in this case it didn't work out for us. But calling him brain dead is just not intelligent. Even the commentators agreed with his decision. I also notice that you didn't call Nick Saban brain dead for doing the exact same thing when he scored. It really doesn't matter what quarter it is in, most coaches would tell you that if they have the opportunity to be up by 6 or 7 after half, they will most likely choose to try for the 2 point conversion and go up by 7.

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You won't find too many people that would agree with you.....and it is because you are WRONG