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Interesting WSJ analysis of recruiting
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:15 pm
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:15 pm
WSJ journal published today an article and chart comparing recruits star-rating out of high school vs. which round they were drafted by NFL since 2007. Basically, 1st round draft picks consists of:
5-stars - 17.6%
4-stars - 42.1%
3-stars - 23.9%
2-stars - 16.4%
Almost as likely for a 2-star recruit to be a 1st-rounder as a 5-star.
5-stars - 17.6%
4-stars - 42.1%
3-stars - 23.9%
2-stars - 16.4%
Almost as likely for a 2-star recruit to be a 1st-rounder as a 5-star.
9
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:17 pm to Hootie
Ok, now show how many 5 stars compared to 2 stars available.
Another flawed argument is flawed.
The 4 stars just proves it more. They have less 4 stars than 3 or 2 and more than doubles them combined.
Another flawed argument is flawed.
The 4 stars just proves it more. They have less 4 stars than 3 or 2 and more than doubles them combined.
This post was edited on 2/2/12 at 5:18 pm
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:17 pm to Hootie
The flaw in this statistical analysis is the lack of proper statistical analysis.
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:18 pm to deuce985
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:19 pm to Hootie
Doesn't prove a thing.
If anything, it just reinforces how star rankings show NFL potential. You're lucky to get 25 5 stars a year. That is a high percentage of 25 players going to the NFL...
And anyways, they have too many variables to look at. That is why I always ignore surveys because they're all flawed.
If anything, it just reinforces how star rankings show NFL potential. You're lucky to get 25 5 stars a year. That is a high percentage of 25 players going to the NFL...
And anyways, they have too many variables to look at. That is why I always ignore surveys because they're all flawed.
This post was edited on 2/2/12 at 5:21 pm
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:19 pm to Hootie
They forgot the demoninator.
In fact, it is downright remarkable that nearly sixty percent of the NFL's first round draft picks over the last five years have come from the comparatively tiny population of four and five stars. In short, it pays to have four and five stars.
In fact, it is downright remarkable that nearly sixty percent of the NFL's first round draft picks over the last five years have come from the comparatively tiny population of four and five stars. In short, it pays to have four and five stars.
This post was edited on 2/2/12 at 5:21 pm
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:21 pm to Hootie
key paragraph worth reading
quote:
This isn't to suggest that the recruiting services are getting it wrong. Rather, this dynamic is a function of how large a pool the three-star-and-below players are. There are typically only around 30 five-star prospects per year and 300 to 400 four-star ones, compared to 1,000-plus three-star recruits and at least as many lesser ones. In other words, the top recruits face a ton of competition.
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:21 pm to deuce985
quote:
Ok, now show how many 5 stars compared to 2 stars available.
Huh?
quote:
Another flawed argument is flawed.
Huh, Huh?
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:22 pm to The312
Why don't people fricking understand that they give out WAY more two stars than Five? I mean its not that fricking hard to understand. They give out way more four stars than five. So on and so forth. With that said that's why the lower stars look like they succeed more than the five stars. Pleas someone help me explain this.
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:22 pm to Hootie
Read the rest of the thread and use common sense ffs.
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:22 pm to Hootie
quote:
Huh, Huh?
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:28 pm to LSUIEGRAD13
Ahhhhh. Read the article. Now I understand. Should have done that before I Posted.
This post was edited on 2/11/12 at 2:08 pm
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:30 pm to Hootie
Why does someone post this dumb shite every single year?
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:30 pm to rocket31
quote:
This isn't to suggest that the recruiting services are getting it wrong. Rather, this dynamic is a function of how large a pool the three-star-and-below players are. There are typically only around 30 five-star prospects per year and 300 to 400 four-star ones, compared to 1,000-plus three-star recruits and at least as many lesser ones. In other words, the top recruits face a ton of competition.
Ah, here is the key missing data. Think about this for a moment. 60% - more than half of the NFL's first round draft picks - are coming from a population that represents AT MOST 10% of all available recruits. That's fricking unbelievable. It pays to have four and five stars.
Put another way, based on the limited sample and numeric assumptions in that article, a five/four star has approximately a 1/20 chance of becoming a first round draft pick while a three star has about a 1/135 chance. Major difference.
Just proving again that a program is better off loading its class with four/five stars in aggregate.
This post was edited on 2/2/12 at 5:32 pm
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:31 pm to beauxroux
Yea, they miss that potential. They miss that 16% potential or so in a pool of thousands while over 16% of the 25 5 stars still goes...
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:31 pm to LSUIEGRAD13
quote:
With that said that's why the lower stars look like they succeed more than the five stars.
I get it. But the number of NFL 1st round draft picks is static each year. NFL teams evaluate for the best talent. I think one conclusion that can be drawn is that nearly just as many 2 stars use their college years to prove themselves to be just as deserving of a 1st round pick as the 5 stars.
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:33 pm to Hootie
quote:
I get it. But the number of NFL 1st round draft picks is static each year. NFL teams evaluate for the best talent. I think one conclusion that can be drawn is that nearly just as many 2 stars use their college years to prove themselves to be just as deserving of a 1st round pick as the 5 stars.
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:38 pm to deuce985
quote:
Yea, they miss that potential. They miss that 16% potential or so in a pool of thousands while over 16% of the 25 5 stars still goes...
Got it. They misrank hundreds of 2 star kids, but only misrank a handful of 5 star kids, if we judge by first-round NFL potential.
ETA: I guess if I use your numbers, they actually misrank 21 of the 25, 5 star.
This post was edited on 2/2/12 at 5:42 pm
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:40 pm to Hootie
quote:
Almost as likely for a 2-star recruit to be a 1st-rounder as a 5-star.
If you are looking at probabilities, you would be very very wrong.
Posted on 2/2/12 at 5:45 pm to Hootie
(no message)
This post was edited on 2/2/12 at 5:55 pm
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