re: Interesting WSJ analysis of recruiting

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I get it. But the number of NFL 1st round draft picks is static each year. NFL teams evaluate for the best talent. I think one conclusion that can be drawn is that nearly just as many 2 stars use their college years to prove themselves to be just as deserving of a 1st round pick as the 5 stars.

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Another HUH HUH

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I think one conclusion that can be drawn is that nearly just as many 2 stars use their college years to prove themselves to be just as deserving of a 1st round pick as the 5 stars.

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Correct, but this doesn't mean anything when you're talking about 6 or 7 five stars out of a population of 25-30 versus 6 or 7 two stars out of a population of hundreds

This excerpt is just a convoluted way to say that a five star has roughly a 20% chance of being a first round pick while a two star has less than 1% chance.

In other words, as others have said, it pays to be a five star.

5*'s usually develop and mature physically early. Not all kids are afforded this freak of nature development. Some don't develop like that until they are 20-22. Most, I would say.

You guys are putting wayy to much emphasis on recruiting rankings.

Fact of the matter is, you cannot account for heart and work ethic. You might have a 2 star guy from a small school who never had proper training and become a better player than the #1 recruit because of heart and determination.

But, back to the analysis. A 5* player just means one that is good enough to play from the start of their career as a true frosh because of their skill set or athletic ability being polished enough to compete for playing time. Anyone who played any sport knows more PT= more injuries, so these rankings don't acct for that, nor system or coaching staff ability to turn players into pro prospects.

So since there are only 25 5stars and 32 NFL teams, even if all the 5 stars were drafted in the 1st round they still wouldn't be 100%?


Put another way. A 5 star recruit has a 21.76% chance of being a first round pick?

I guess the only real practical lesson you can derive from this is there are some great 2-3 star players out there -- if you are able to identify them from the crowd better than the schools you are competing against.

I have no idea how people old enough to read the wall street journal can so fundamentally misunderstand statistics.